My Arctic Forecast

There is going to be a sharp drop in extent over the next week, due to a large high pressure system which will compact the ice in the western Arctic and the East Siberian Sea.

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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19 Responses to My Arctic Forecast

  1. Latitude says:

    …and that will make more MYI

  2. alibertarian2 says:

    Does compaction of ice result is less ice mass than before the compaction? Are we concerned about ice mass or ice extent?

    • Jim Hunt says:

      Not in and of itself no. Personally I am “concerned about ice mass” but that is rather more difficult to measure than extent. Perhaps sea ice area is a better proxy for volume/mass than extent?

      My CT crystal ball forecasts a small uptick in area on Saturday. A net decline of around 50 k over the next couple of days. What happens to mass over that time is harder to quantify, but most certainly the 2014 melt continues.

  3. Get ready for Headlines about melting Arctic Ice !!

  4. Greg Locke says:

    Go to the blog Sunshine Hours http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com, for a day by day, blow by blow recitation on the progress of both arctic and Antarctic ice. Close up maps, and understandable tables. Worth a visit to check out Steve’s predictions over the next few days.

  5. Brian D says:

    If high pressure centers more over into the E Siberian like the models are showing, that will bring N/NE winds across the Beaufort for a few days next week. Ice will be moving more into Alaskan coast toward Barrow. Weather pattern also keeping N/NE winds and colder temps across NW Passage. Don’t look for that to open up this year. And N winds have been pretty dominant into the Barents, forcing ice into that sea all summer. Very little leaving out of the Fram Strait as winds have been mostly southerly there. Eventually low pressure will become more dominant across the basin again. Wash, rinse, repeat cycle like last month. Temps from near the pole down into the Beaufort/Chukchi have been running from 1 to as much as -5 deg C since late July. Seems most melting is bottom melt this year.

  6. tom0mason says:

    Using the IPCC approved prediction projection method of Ouija board with cross-correlation on the Rune stones, my forecast for the amount of Arctic ice will be ….
    .

    1.287 leagues² ± 0.81 furlongs² with a 97% confidence.

    Sorry for the units but we could only contact an old mariner.

  7. pesce9991 says:

    Apparently, Jim Hunt, this is not the place to be for “honest discussion”. Jim’s comments are more or less typical.

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