On a hot day in 1988, Hansen told this to the US Congress
His Bold Statement Transforms the Debate On Greenhouse Effect
Published: August 23, 1988
He held up one die representing the climate for the period 1950-1980. Two sides were white for an average summer, and two other sides were blue for colder-than-average summers. The other two sides were red for hotter-than-average summers. Thus, on a roll of the die for that period, there were two chances in six of having a hot summer at any given location in the country.
Then Dr. Hansen picked up the die for the 1990’s and explained:
”If our climate model calculations are approximately correct, the greenhouse warming in the 1990’s will be sufficient to shift the probabilities such that the chance of a hot summer in most of the country will be in the range of 55 to 80 percent. Four sides of the die are red. I believe it is obvious that the man in the street will notice that by then the dice are loaded. There will be more hot summers than normal, and the hottest ones will be hotter than they used to be.”
His forecast couldn’t possibly have done any worse. He gave it during the hottest summer on record in DC, and this year has been second coolest
So far this year, less than 2.5% of days in Maryland have been over 90 degrees, which is the second lowest on record. Compare to the peak year of 1988, when over 19% of days through August 11 were over 90 degrees.
For the entire US, the frequency of 90 degree days has plummeted, and is near record lows