Just got back from a cycling in the Fort Collins foothills, wearing a down jacket and gloves on September 6. Normally the Chamisa is bright gold this time of year, but all the rain this summer is keeping the colors muted. This picture was taken right across the street from the CSU football stadium.
My northern state is usually cooling down right about now. Yet, we are having record heat waves for almost two months.
Do not forget that as the Jets move toward the equator they go from zonal to meridional. This means instead of getting relatively uniform weather like we had in the last half of the 20th century you are going to get ‘blocking highs’ and polar vortex. High temps and low temps. That is why the Climatecrooks switch to ‘Climate Weirding’ or ‘Climate Chaos’
What they do not tell you is the shape of the Laurentide Ice Sheet follows the cold pattern of a US polar vortex. Alsaka was NOT covered in ice. Gray areas in the map below are covered in ice. Note the shape.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e4/Last_glacial_vegetation_map.png
To add to what Gail wrote–
The melting ice of course allowed more heat to escape, thus a lower jet stream and a blocking high and a Level barely 1 hurricane becomes climate change on steroids.
Of course as soon as the AMO reverses itself and we find Arctic ice increasing we have to worry about the Antarctic because well, we have to worry about something.
September snow is coming in a couple of days. The end is near.
The end of summer, that is.
Here is an even better depiction of Eurasia during the depths of the last glaciation. Note much of the EU was TUNDRA.
http://freepages.genealogy.rootsweb.ancestry.com/~geneticgenealogy/LDP/LGM.jpg
Care to flay this “pal-reviewed” “study”? The sources are full of the “usual suspects”.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096314000163
They give it all away in the abstract openning –
“…20th century monthly average, with February 1985 the last time mean temperature fell below this value. Even given these and other extraordinary statistics, public acceptance of human induced climate change and confidence in the supporting science has declined since 2007. The degree of uncertainty as to whether observed climate changes are due to human activity or are part of natural systems fluctuations remains a major stumbling block to effective adaptation action and risk management. Previous approaches to attribute change include qualitative expert-assessment approaches such as used in IPCC reports and use of ‘fingerprinting’ methods based on global climate models. Here we develop an alternative approach which provides a rigorous probabilistic statistical assessment of the link between observed climate changes and human activities in a way that can inform formal climate risk assessment. ”
(My highlight)
In other words they are saying it is not about science it’s all about politics.
Give the degree of uncertainty the authors wish to downplay actual science, and play-up the IPCC reality distorted interpretation of it.
As they are assessing risk management they have to look at worse case scenarios, but by looking through the committee of UN-IPCC prism they then arrive at (IMO) unrealistic and very expensive conclusions. To do this they have taken UN-IPCC quoted papers and –
“To construct the statistical model we use GHG concentration, solar radiation, volcanic activity and the El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle as these are key drivers of global temperature variance (IPCC, 2007, IPCC, 2013, Meinshausen et al., 2011, Allan, 2000, Benestadt and Schmidt, 2009, Gohar and Shine, 2007 and Wang et al., 2005). This analysis uses recorded data (NOAA National Climate Data Centre, 2011) avoiding the uncertainties that can arise in the complementary climate model-based fingerprint studies (Hegerl and Zwiers, 2011).”
coupled to using the best in curve fitting computer technology, arrive in the same place as the UN-IPCC. How could they miss?
Well modeled something but what? Not this planet.
“radiation, volcanic activity and the El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle as these are key drivers of global temperature variance…”
Note what is very conspicuous by it’s absence —- Clouds and albedo.
From Climate4you: Climate and clouds
Diagram showing monthly variations in total global cloud cover since July 1983:
http://www.climate4you.com/images/CloudCoverTotalObservationsSince1983.gif
“…Variations in the total column water vapour in the atmosphere since July 1983. The upper graph (blue) shows the total amount of water in the atmosphere. The green graph shows the amount of water in the lower troposphere between 1000 and 680 mb, corresponding to altitudes up to about 3 km. The lower red graph shows the amount of water between 680 and 310 mb, corresponding to altitudes from about 3 to 6 km above sea level. The marked annual variation presumably reflects the asymmetrical distribution of land and ocean on planet Earth, with most land areas located in the northern hemisphere….”
http://www.climate4you.com/images/TotalColumnWaterVapourDifferentAltitudesObservationsSince1983.gif
Earthshine Project Albedo
Changes in the Earth’s reflectance over the past two decades. E. Palle, P.R. Goode, P. Montañés-Rodríguez and S.E. Koonin, Science, 304, 1299-1301, 2004 link
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2007/10/earth_albedo_bbso.png?w=640
Yep, they took the IPCC standard ingredients (climate old gristle, bare splitered bones, and losts of rancid lard), boiled it up in a really fresh hogs bladder, while stirring with 3 hockey sticks, and still made a dogs dinner of the result. What else could be expected?
But as any good chef will testify, your results depend the quality of the ingredients coupled to good, practiced, professional technique.
“…..Scatter diagram showing the total monthly global cloud cover plotted versus the monthly global surface air temperature, since July 1983. High values of global cloud cover is associated with low global temperatures, demonstrating the cooling effect of clouds. A simple linear fit model suggests that an increase in global cloud cover of 1 percent corresponds to a global temperature decrease of about 0.07oC. From a simple statistical point of view, this model explains about 28 percent of observed spread of surface air temperature in the diagram…..”
http://www.climate4you.com/images/TotalCloudCoverVersusGlobalSurfaceAirTemperature.gif
“IT” is what happens when you turn your back on God! It hasn’t even gotten started yet!
I love those fences.
I know I am in the USA when I see fences like that.
In the UK we have hedges and ditches, with the occasional three strand electric wire. but never fences like those.
Plus, our fences are designed to keep things in.
In Australia, they have fences designed to keep things out.
I get my spiritual fulfillment from looking at nature. and fences
According to David Viner (yes he!) by now the Europeans would be flocking to Britain for their holidays to take advantage of our “mediterranean climate”!
Just as well they took no notice, if last month’s bank holiday weather was anything to go by!
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/another-viner-prediction-and-another-dismal-failure/
The French headed south to Spain and Portugal or further this year, the Vendee and other areas suffered from a lack of French visitors
Okay first, if you need a “down jacket”, obviously you are not cycling fast enough. Get ‘er up to MACH 1, then see if you need that jacket.
Second, those “flowers” are “black-eyed Susans”, not the species you mentioned.
Here are pics of what you mentioned:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ericameria_nauseosa
Here are “black-eyed Susans”:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudbeckia_hirta
The Chamisa is the yellow bushes in the background.
Your ongoing arrogance continues to astonish me.
Hey geran! Yes, the flowers are black-eyed Susans — but those were not the Chamisa that Tony was referring to. The clumps of shrub sized plants further in the background and on the other side of the fence are Chamisa. While they do have some yellow in them even now, they are normally just covered with little golden yellow flowers this time of year.
Hey Jason! I especially enjoyed your math concerning ocean heat several days ago. It is always fun to totally demolish the IPCC science.
Keep it up!
Seems “groan” didn’t recognise the bush you were talking about, SG
I put that down to ignorance on his behalf.
Nothing unexpected there. !
Here’s a hint, Groan, if you don’t know what something is.. look it up on Wiki.
It great for such trivial stuff as you deal with.
I think the foreground blossoms look more like a type of Helianthus.
I suspect you could be correct, but picture above is not detailed enough to be certain.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/68/Helianthus_petiolaris_USDA.jpg
You are correct. Weed sunflowers. Birds and all insects seem to adore them. Birds fight each other over the seed heads.
Love the picture/the scene. The yellow of the flowers, the fence… Thanks for sharing.
I was thinking it could have been a scene from Australia; the style of fence is a dead giveaway for the US, though.