Arctic Sea Ice Extent Just Below 2006, Up 68% From 2012

ScreenHunter_2660 Sep. 11 06.42

COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

There has been essentially no change in ice coverage this month. green shows gain since September 1. Red shows loss.

ScreenHunter_2666 Sep. 11 07.30

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6 Responses to Arctic Sea Ice Extent Just Below 2006, Up 68% From 2012

  1. Gail Combs says:

    Steve,
    You and the others here at Real Science will appreciate this forecast. Remember the [Communist] Peoples March for Climate Justice and the UN meeting on Climate is happening in NYC the week of September 21st. I had hoped for snow or ice for NYC to greet the useful idiots. Seems I may be getting an early birthday present:

    Wednesday, September 10, 2014 Multiple Arctic Blasts Projected to Hit North America During Coming Weeks

    The remainder of September into October looks to feature a series of Arctic cold shots, potentially record-breaking at times….

    Blues depict negative height anomalies, which often result in cold and stormy weather.

    In the image above, valid September 11th, we see a swath of negative height anomalies overtaking Japan as a rather strong upper level low scrapes the nation to the north. Seems pretty mundane, sure, but the consequences here at home are far more than mundane. As has been discussed consistently for the past couple of years, the weather in East Asia can have a significant impact on weather here in the United States. Utilizing the East Asian correlation of ridging over Japan equals ridging in the US 6-10 days later, and the same situation with negative height anomalies, we can foresee long range weather patterns weeks out at a time. This mechanism is referred to as the Typhoon Rule, and states that weather patterns found at the 500mb level can replicate themselves over North America 6-10 days later after they appear over Japan.

    If we use this rule on the model image above, a rather strong upper level low with the accompanying threat of some cold Arctic air may begin affecting the US around September 17-21st, within the six-to-ten day timeframe discussed above…..

    With luck this forecast is correct and that “strong upper level low with the accompanying threat of some cold Arctic air” will arrive in NYC on the 21st just in time to dump cold reality on the Climate Justice March.

  2. philjourdan says:

    68%? Toss out the refrigerators! Just set the cold cuts on the glacier coming to a neighborhood near you.

  3. Ron C. says:

    When the coastal zones are included, the extent is much higher, closer to MASIE results.

    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

  4. Brian D says:

    The gain in the Beaufort (and other areas as well) really isn’t gain at all. That ice has been there. Its just that the microwave sensors weren’t picking it up before. It is colder now, so that ice is hardening up and has become a hard target. MASIE, CIS and Russia much better in there detection methods. But I understand your just comparing apples to apples through DMI.

  5. Ron C. says:

    Right on, Brian D. I compared MASIE and NOAA since 2006. MASIE always showed greater extent, averaging 700,000 Km2 more both at maximum and minimum.

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