Ice Age Begins On July 17, 2800

Summer is getting shorter at both ends in Fort Collins. The last spring snow is occurring later, and the first autumn snow is occurring earlier.

ScreenHunter_2699 Sep. 12 02.27

So I used my best climate science linear extrapolation, and determined that on July 17, 2800 – there will be no more summer in Fort Collins. Also interesting to note that on June 25, 1992 it snowed – due to cooling from volcanic dust after the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo.

ScreenHunter_2700 Sep. 12 02.28


About stevengoddard

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47 Responses to Ice Age Begins On July 17, 2800

  1. Chuck says:

    Very interesting. If not sarcastic. So, what if Yellow stone erupts?

    • Jason Calley says:

      If Yellowstone erupts, not only will it be the Ice Age again, it will be the Dark Ages as well — at least for a while!


    • James the Elder says:

      Too far out. To save their collective ass, the warmists’ hockey sticks will be flipped to show unprecedented cooling and we only have 15 years to save the planet. Send money NOW.

  2. au1corsair says:

    Channel Al Gore and declare that the “Ice Age BEGAN On 4 July 2880 at 3 PM Eastern Daylight Saving Time Because George Bush Stole My Presidency and Drove Pick-up Trucks!”

    Past tense, as in done deal, unavoidable–unless the REAL and future president is restored to his throne…

  3. Mat Helm says:

    So I can use the lay away plan on my new parka then?

    • Mat Helm says:

      Oh wait… Socialized medicine has taken all the greed out of medical research. So now there’s not even a chance now that any of us will be a live then so….

    • au1corsair says:

      Why not? Going off-topic: you can store your parka in the pawn shop (shades of “Time Enough for Love”)
      Of course, Donald Hamilton’s Matt Helm was a bit of a sociopath and had little use for “progressives:’ in fact fought the ugly step-sisters of Nazism and Communism-with go old true blue Americans thrown in for good measure!
      Titan Books is reprinting the 27 book series.

      I wonder if Al Gore will be reprinted in 40 more years, a half century after An Inconvenient Truth hit theaters in 2006? Or will there be reprints of this blog?

      • The Communist Manifesto is still going strong after 166 years. Mein Kampf will be 91 years old when the copyright expires in 2 years and it’s still in strong demand. Mussolini’s My Rise is nearly that old and still published. Chairman Mao’s works are all the rage at American universities.

        Why not Gore?

      • Jason Calley says:

        Gore will be reprinted — but only as excerpts used in psychopathology studies.

        “Time Enough for Love” <— Great book! I actually met Robert Heinlein once….

        • Gail Combs says:

          “Time Enough for Love” was a super book. You should have seen my face when I caught my Mom reading it my Freshman year of College. She had plucked it off my book shelf.

        • mkelly says:

          My favorite is “Farnham”s Freehold”.

        • cdquarles says:

          Nice. I ❤ R. A. H. I like Stranger in a Strange Land and The Moon is a Harsh Mistress a lot. Time Enough for Love is pretty darned good, too.

        • Gail Combs says:

          I have all of Heinlein’s books, and all of Azimov’s and …..
          What can I say, we have 25 book cases and that does not include the boxes or the fact the books are two or three deep per shelf.

        • philjourdan says:

          I have read almost all of Heinlein’s books, but not quite all. But I have read all of Herbert, Clarke and Asimov’s. Sadly, I do not have them all as several moves managed to get them “taken” by others.

        • mjc says:

          You know I’ve never met a Warmunist that like Heinlein…not saying they can’t exist, it’s just something I don’t think their pea-sized sheeple brains can handle without exploding.

        • Jason Calley says:

          @ mjc Heinlein always stressed that The Real World respects strength and reason. On the other hand, those of little brain (warmists and “Progressives”) revere victimhood and feelings.

  4. Steve Case says:

    Extrapolations can be fun, here’s one I did on sea level some time ago

    • thegriss says:

      Oh, now that’s interesting..

      I saw a Chinese (iirc) record that seemed to indicate a cyclical sea level.

      If that cycle was real and reasonably regular, then it was going to ‘top-out’ at around 2030-2040.

      Now look at your extrapolation. !! (with error margin)

      Coincidence is … whatever ! :-).

      I am saying, however, that your prediction for 2080-2100 is probably not correct 🙂

    • tom0mason says:

      Just correlate it to something nasty humans do, like live, and watch the grant money roll in. You could even have you own UN Intergovernmental Panel on Seas Levels to keep the money rolling in, while you dictate how people live.
      Here’s a few ideas about correlations –

  5. Edmonton Al says:

    Aren’t you worried about your great-great-great-great-great……………..great-great grandchildren?

  6. philjourdan says:

    It is Logarithmic, duh! You got to 2028. I hope they love their skiing. 😉

      • philjourdan says:

        I read the series over at Joanne Nova’s site. The beauty of his work (beyond the fact that all his work is available for inspection) is the short time frame. We will know in 3 years.

        • Gail Combs says:

          Science as it should be done. Hope Icelandic volcanoes don’t screw up the experiment although some correlation studies say added seismic action is to be expected during Grand Solar Minimums.

          Volcanic eruptions and solar activity
          Author and Affiliation: Stothers, Richard B.
          (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States)
          [Who could resist this paper with that recommendation…]

          Abstract: The historical record of large volcanic eruptions from 1500 to 1980 is subjected to detailed time series analysis. In two weak but probably statistically significant periodicities of about 11 and 80 yr, the frequency of volcanic eruptions increases (decreases) slightly around the times of solar minimum (maximum). Time series analysis of the volcanogenic acidities in a deep ice core from Greenland reveals several very long periods ranging from about 80 to about 350 yr which are similar to the very slow solar cycles previously detected in auroral and C-14 records. Solar flares may cause changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that abruptly alter the earth’s spin. The resulting jolt probably triggers small earthquakes which affect volcanism.

          Possible correlation between solar and volcanic activity in a long-term scale Author: Střeštik, J.

  7. Add 100 pages of meaningless scientific jargon and you’ve got yourself a Nobel Prize.

  8. Gail Combs says:

    Snow has fallen in Alberta and in Montana, lest we think it is only happening in the USA…

    Argiris Diamantis says:
    September 11, 2014 at 8:25 am

    Snow DOES NOT STOP in Russia, too. “In Ergaki passed the first snowfall. In the mountains in the south of the Krasnoyarsk Territory snowed. Today, social networks began to appear photos ….

    It is worth noting that the very first snow in the Krasnoyarsk Territory was recorded last week in Norilsk.”

    H/t Tto IceAgeNow who reports the weather the MSM never does.

  9. KTM says:

    I took your data and plugged it into my Algore-ithm that uses the runaway forward feedback of snowfall and albedo. It turns out that the next Ice Age could begin as soon as the next 5 to 7 years, with a final tipping point just far enough in advance to give me time to warn the world and collect a pile of money to avert global catastrophe.

  10. Gail Combs says:

    Could be an interesting winter.

    Bardarbunga volcano may be waking up.

    “Satellite monitoring shows that the caldera has dropped 20 meters (65 feet) since the eruption started” – Dr John Stevenson of the University of Edinburgh
    Iceland Eruption a Major Worry – Caldera Sinks About 20 Meters has some really great pictures including a pic of a ‘Volcano Tornado’ – a 3,300ft column of gas swirling above Bardarbunga.

    In the last 48 hours the Iceland MET office shows major seismic activity. Earthquakes of 5.4, 5.2, ~4.8 and another four over 4 on the richter scale. The rest of Iceland seems quiet.

  11. Gail Combs says:

    The winter snow didn’t melt
    GOOGLE translate

    n the decades following Húsvíkinga predict the timing Dagmálalág in Húsavíkurfjall be snow-less. OK traditionally concentrated much snow and where snow often would remain into the summer.

    After the exceptionally warm summer in Húsavík might think that snow was long gone, but it’s not. She did not disappear until September 11 and has not remained so long in Dagmálalág since formal records began…

    The previous record is from 1995, but then disappeared Form August 25.

    Egil Olgeirsson, one of hobbyists FOUND discussions, says, very tall and dense snow has been Húsavíkurfjall when the spring. The summer has been very good shape and the number of days the temperature has exceeded 20 points in Húsavík and more besides. Thus, it is a very special form will Dagmálalág should last until September.

    It is not necessarily the cold that is the worry, it is the very snowy winters when the snow that does not melt in the summer.

    • rah says:

      Yep, from what I read that is how the glacial periods begin. It’s not so much abnormal accumulation but the lack of melt.

      • Gail Combs says:

        rah, about that ‘abnormal accumulation’….

        Evidence of new, present-day glaciation in Scotland

        Glacier-like hazards found on Ben Nevis
        A team of experts investigating the North Face of Scotland’s Ben Nevis mountain have found snowfields remaining in many gullies and upper scree slopes.

        On these snowfields, the team – which included mountaineers, geologists and botanists – came across compacted, dense, ice hard snow call neve.

        Neve is the first stage in the formation of glaciers, the team said.

        The team also encountered sheets of snow weighing hundreds of tons, along with tunnels and fissures known as bergschrunds; the same large, deep cracks in the ice found at the top of glaciers.

        Bergschrunds (from the German for mountain cleft) are formed when the moving glacier ice separates from the stagnant ice or firn above…..
        Cathy Mayne, of SNH…. “Not only have we gathered potentially ground-breaking geological data and significantly added to the known populations of arctic-alpine species, the team have also discovered alpine saxifrage, which has never been found on the mountain before.”

        Almost 300 “snow patches” remain in Highland mountains.
        Readers are saying that is just the “official count”


        When I was in Scotland last month I saw snow packs everywhere. I would guess their are thousands of snow patches not just 300.

        I was in the Albanian Alps just a few weeks ago. There were plenty of snow patches, more than I’ve seen in photos for that time of year.


        Heavy snowfall in the Alps this week

        July 8, the Swiss online Blick reported that meteorologists were predicting snowfall down to 1800 meters elevation (6000 ft.), forecasting up to 50 cm (20 inches) of snow in the Canton of Valais….

        By evening, passes were closed and avalanche warnings had been issued….

        Today, public SRF Swiss Radio reports that mountain excursions and tours are being cancelled due to the cold and snowy weather, thus delaying the start of the season.

        If this is not ‘Unusual’ why have excursions and tours been scheduled that now have to be canceled?

        P. Gosselin on answers that question:
        11 July 2014 – “Although summertime snowfall high up in the Alps is not an unusual occurrence, snowfall down to 6000 feet elevation IN JULY is something that wasn’t supposed to happen nowadays,”

  12. Gail Combs says:

    Update on Bardarbunga volcano.
    The caldera in Bardarbunga volcano could subside by hundreds of meters, say two of Iceland´s top geophysicists… (good diagrams)

    That would be filed under a tin foil hat except it is coming from Ríkisútvarpið RUV – The Icelandic National Broadcasting Service

    [It] is an independent public service broadcaster, formally owned by the Icelandic state. It started operation in 1930. RUV is financially independent, its principal sources of income being the licence fee and revenues from advertisements. RUV’s income can only be allocated for broadcasting purposes. RUV operates one television channel and two radio channels that cover the whole of Iceland as well as the website According to the Broadcasting Act the main obligation of RUV is to promote the Icelandic language, Icelandic history and Iceland’s cultural heritage. The RUV should also honour basic democratic rules, human rights and the freedom of speech and opinion.

  13. Don says:

    Tony, Tony, Tony! You do not know how to play the game! Change 2800 to 2080, make a few more scary stories up, then wait for the funding to come rolling in. I want in on that funding btw. So your data needs a little more adjusting, just because you can do it, so adjust away.

    Scary headlines:

    ‘If We Do Not Stop What We Are Doing, We Will All Freeze To Death No Later Than 2080’

    ‘New Ice Age Approaches!!!’

    ‘Chicago Will Be Covered With Ice Within Eighty Years’ (Not that that might not be a good thing, just don’t tell them that)

    Etc., etc., etc.

    Glad to help.

  14. au1corsair says:

    Old School explanations of climate cycles featured a gradual slide into ice ages and a gradual warming period when glaciers retreated. New scientific thought is climate changes are abrupt and happen rapidly.
    Instead of centuries, the current thought is natural climate change occurred within the space of two decades. Natural as in “pre-Industrial Revolution” times.
    “There is no consensus regarding the time when the Little Ice Age began,[10][11] although a series of events preceding the known climatic minima has often been referenced. In the thirteenth century, pack ice began advancing southwards in the North Atlantic, as did glaciers in Greenland. Anecdotal evidence suggests expanding glaciers almost worldwide. Based on radiocarbon dating of roughly 150 samples of dead plant material with roots intact, collected from beneath ice caps on Baffin Island and Iceland, Miller et al. (2012)[12] state that cold summers and ice growth began abruptly between AD 1275 and 1300, followed by “a substantial intensification” from 1430 to 1455.[13] In contrast, a climate reconstruction based on glacial length[14][15] shows no great variation from 1600 to 1850, though it shows strong retreat thereafter. For this reason, any of several dates ranging over 400 years may indicate the beginning of the Little Ice Age:
    ##1250 for when Atlantic pack ice began to grow
    ##1275 to 1300 based on radiocarbon dating of plants killed by glaciation
    ##1300 for when warm summers stopped being dependable in Northern Europe
    ##1315 for the rains and Great Famine of 1315–1317
    ##1550 for theorized beginning of worldwide glacial expansion
    ##1650 for the first climatic minimum.
    The Little Ice Age ended in the latter half of the nineteenth century or early in the twentieth century.”

    Based on solar activity (the Global Warming mob doesn’t “believe in” solar activity affecting Earth’s global climate–remember?) some scientists are predicting another Little Ice Age:

    I wonder how long it will take MiniTrue to plunge histories of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age down the memory hole? MiniTrue tries hard. Too many real scientists haven’t been brought under Party discipline yet, and there’s that naughty Internet–“Steve Goddard” take heed that when the Party and Big Brother triumph, there will be no hiding!


    • rishrac says:

      I don’t know when that thought hit them, but anyone looking at the cycles in the previous ice ages, the temps don’t slide down nicely. It’s more like falling off a cliff. You get a little blip of warming at the end, and then the bottom falls out. It’s nearly a straight line downward.

      • Gail Combs says:

        Two or three humps of warming (aka Thermal Pluses) and then the cliff.

        Dr. Alley found the Wisconsin Ice Age transitioned in to the Holocene in three years… YIKES!

        • rishrac says:

          And I didn’t have to read or be convinced of that anywhere. It was fairly plain from the record. I reached the same conclusion independently

  15. tom0mason says:

    Wonder why N. America is getting cold?
    That relatively unmix Ozone is sat right over N. America, radiating the heat away to space from the troposphere.
    see –


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