Learning To Think Like A Progressive Scientist

We hear idiotic remarks all the time from experts like :

We are having 100 year rainfalls every year now

It is difficult to grasp the level of stupidity behind that remark. The odds of winning the lottery are 100 million to one. For any individual, it is a multi-million year event – yet it happens all the time.

Same story with rainfall. If you have 5,000 weather stations which have been keeping records for 100 years, odds are you will have fifty “100 year rainfalls” every year.

About stevengoddard

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16 Responses to Learning To Think Like A Progressive Scientist

  1. stjones911 says:

    Of course we’re having more 100-year rainfalls – it’s a natural consequence of permanent drought because the rain has to go somewhere. Can I have my grant now please? Oh, and tenure too.

  2. Centinel2012 says:

    Reblogged this on Centinel2012 and commented:
    You can’t be both a scientist and a progressive they are mutually exclusive!

  3. philjourdan says:

    Yea, but I win the lottery every day. 😉

    I think they are trying to create anti-Yogi Berrisms.

  4. We had a 100-year rain here in Phoenix last week. What drives me crazy is when people say it was a 1,000-year rain. They have no evidence and no concept of fat tails.

    • Jason Calley says:

      Back a few years when they had the really bad heatwave at Moscow, one of the CAGW site was claiming that it was a “once in 15,000 year event.” This was in spite of records of a dozen or so previous heatwaves the same or worse during the last few hundred years. In a lapse of judgement, I actually posted at the site that they seemed not to understand just how much variability was built in to climate on a span of 15,000 years. Needless to say, I was quickly informed that I did not understand what I was saying.

      • Send Al to the Pole says:

        And as I recall some of those record events in Moscow were in the mid 1930s. The same period during which the US was its warmest ever. Claims that one country (The US) was the only place this decade of warmth occurred is not only irrational, it defies the record.

    • I lived in Scottsdale in 1980 when every bridge except for the Mill Avenue Bridge was shut due to flooding, for several months. That was less than 100 years ago.

      • Phoenix (as defined by the weather station at the airport) got more rain this time than in 1980 (I remember the flood in the early 90s, perhaps 1992, that was also a “100-year flood”). Technically speaking, both may have been a 100-year flood–this one in Phoenix and the 1980 flood in Scottsdale. In August, there was a 100-year flood, or worse, about 25 miles north of Phoenix where it also rained 5 inches. With enough locations, 100-year floods are quite common, as you pointed out. Even 1,000-year floods would be common, but my point is that we have no way of knowing how much rain is needed to call it a 1,000-year flood.

      • philjourdan says:

        Alarmists grade on a curve. 😉

  5. darrylb says:

    As you do a lot, maybe we should assign a person or team to each category of extreme BS
    eg, Extreme rainfall, drought, humidity (which has followed surface temp) fires (remember when we were taught that they were necessary?) etc

    • Gail Combs says:

      Most of that has already been debunked. It is just a matter of finding the information and hoping it is a creditable site.

      Unfortunately anyone who is not Politically Correct gets labeled a ‘denier’ a ‘flat earther’ or worse. It has ALWAYS been a political fight and since the bankers want that Carbon Trading money and the Carbon Tax money. Since the Bankers OWN the MSM. Since the bankers OWN Congress. Since the bankers OWN the Oil Companies and through them WWF (as well as funding the NGOs outright) we have a real battle on our hands.

  6. Anything is possible says:

    The remark isn’t idiotic. It is lying by omission, and deliberately designed to mislead. Alarmists do it all the time, and journalists lap it up.

    • Jason Calley says:

      It took me quite a while to finally come to the conclusion that the “climatologists” were not just mistaken, not just confused, not just making honest errors of judgement or procedure. I really did not want to make that step to “they are lying, they are deliberately and fraudulently changing the data.” That is the most serious sin that a scientist can do, and not a charge to bring up lightly. However, at some point, the long string of abuses become overwhelming and rule out other more palatable conclusions.

  7. daveandrews723 says:

    Arizona is about to get another record rainfall because of the results of a Pacific hurricane pushing on shore. It has nothing to do with “climate change.” It has everything to do with the variability of the weather.

  8. Andy Oz says:

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2014/8

    Contiguous US had 9th Wettest summer on record.
    YTD USA has been average which is coldest since 1997.

    This doesn’t correlate well with Climate Psalm 2014: “Hottest Ever, Permanent Drought”

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