Understanding How To Be A Climatologist

Climatologists examine the temperature trend over the past few weeks or years, and simply extrapolate it out 100 years.

In 1958 experts predicted an ice-free Arctic within a generation.

ScreenHunter_3065 Sep. 25 07.52

Eleven years later experts predicted a new ice age.

ScreenHunter_3066 Sep. 25 07.52

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15 Responses to Understanding How To Be A Climatologist

  1. emsnews says:

    Good old yin and yang at work! 🙂

  2. Dave N says:

    It should tell them something: give up publishing your predictions until you can be right.

  3. D.SELF says:

    New York Times has been a major contributor in pushing the hysteria for years

  4. Jimbo says:

    Not sure where to post this. [transcribed by me – apologies for any errors].

    Abstract – 1978
    H. H. Lamb et al
    …….a very significant warming of world climate had been going on more or less throughout the first half of this century, particularly from 1920 to 1940. The reversal of this trend that followed, particularly between 1955 and 1965, and the remarkable incidence since 1960 of many kinds of extreme weather in many parts of the world, going beyond the statistical expectations based on the data of the so-called climatic ‘normal’ periods between 1900 and 1960, have created concern amongst planners in agriculture, industry and trade……
    http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/634646?uid=2&uid=4&sid=00000000000000

    • Gail Combs says:

      Dr. Lamb at least had some science behind him when he made that statement.
      J. D. Hays, John Imbrie, and N. J. Shackleton, in December of 1976 had just published Variations in the Earth’s Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages giving concrete evidence to support the Milancovitch Cycles with their break through work on deep sea cores. They provided the first, high resolution, high precision record of long-term global environmental change by using oxygen isotope measurements from the shells of foraminifera to track changes in global ice volume over the last 450,000 years. After that the Milankovitch theory attained widespread acceptance. Even most Warmists do not dispute Milankovitch Cycles.

      The discussion now is whether or not the Holocene will go two precession or follow the normal half-precession length. The precessional alignment would suggest that the Holocene is about two hundred years past glacial inception with the Little Ice Age arriving right on time only to have the Grand Solar Maximum haul the earth back out of inception, at least for a little while.

      From geologist William McClenney.

      The vast research I have done attempting to ferret out whatever is available on the last several ice ages and interglacials, especially the transitions, suggests that the single greatest mystery in all of climate science is what causes abrupt climate change [ Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations]

      …. At the end of the day, the most striking conclusion of all is simply this. In a paper submitted to Geology magazine in 2004 regarding Marine Isotope Chrons data collected from the North Sea Pleistocene sediments, the authors state “The next predicted decrease is now, though anthropogenic warming will certainly serve to temper this kick into the next ice age.””

      We propose that this effectively precludes a ‘double precession-cycle’ interglacial [e.g., Raymo, 1997] in the Holocene without human influence.” Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005, large(DOT)stanford.edu/publications/coal/references/docs/Lisiecki_Raymo_2005_Pal.pdf

      Which essentially quashed Berger and Loutre’s 2002 modeling ftp://ftp.soest.hawaii.edu/engels/Stanley/Textbook_update/Science_297/Berger-02.pdf, if you have been paying attention to the literature.

      Variations in the Earth’s Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages
      Abstract

      1) Three indices of global climate have been monitored in the record of the past 450,000 years in Southern Hemisphere ocean-floor sediments.

      2) Over the frequency range 10–4 to 10–5 cycle per year, climatic variance of these records is concentrated in three discrete spectral peaks at periods of 23,000, 42,000, and approximately 100,000 years. These peaks correspond to the dominant periods of the earth’s solar orbit, and contain respectively about 10, 25, and 50 percent of the climatic variance.

      3) The 42,000-year climatic component has the same period as variations in the obliquity of the earth’s axis and retains a constant phase relationship with it.

      4) The 23,000-year portion of the variance displays the same periods (about 23,000 and 19,000 years) as the quasi-periodic precession index.

      5) The dominant, 100,000-year climatic component has an average period close to, and is in phase with, orbital eccentricity. Unlike the correlations between climate and the higher-frequency orbital variations (which can be explained on the assumption that the climate system responds linearly to orbital forcing), an explanation of the correlation between climate and eccentricity probably requires an assumption of nonlinearity.

      6) It is concluded that changes in the earth’s orbital geometry are the fundamental cause of the succession of Quaternary ice ages.

      7) A model of future climate based on the observed orbital-climate relationships, but ignoring anthropogenic effects, predicts that the long-term trend over the next seven thousand years is toward extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation.

      So even back then they were talking about anthropogenic effects. SHEEESH!

  5. Truthseeker says:

    Notice how the press of the day sees the loss of arctic ice as a good thing – ships will have new routes to travel. Looking at the positive rather than trying to scare everyone with fake dangers.

  6. Andy DC says:

    Pretty clear pattern. Scare the sheeple about cold when it is cold and scare them about hot when it is hot. There is no Government grant money to be made by saying there is nothing to worry about.

  7. I believe this is a widespread phenomenon in many different situations. (I think there is even a name for it, but it escapes me now.) For example, “If we continue selling this many widgets/month, we’ll have a record widget-selling year”. This is not to excuse climatologists; indeed, recognizing this is a commonplace phenomenon ought to make it easier to point out that climatologists are engaging in it. And, if they are the scientists they claim to be, should not climatologists be able to adjust their expectations to account for this phenomenon?

    • Gail Combs says:

      Linear extrapolation from a cyclical phenomenon. It is what gets novices in the stock market into deep doo-doo.

    • Terry Jay says:

      “If Present Trends Continue…”
      A required assumption for most forecasts, and commonly disastrous over extended periods. See Stock Market, Housing Prices, Gold Price, Climatology.

      Next, see Regression to the Mean.

      There is more to forecasting the future beyond 5 days than merely extending the recent trend to infinity.

      • mjc says:

        No there’s not…ask Bernie Madoff about it. Or any insurance salesman.

        Extending the recent trend to infinity is the bread and butter of con artists, everywhere.

  8. kaapo says:

    Perhaps the worst part of the report, according to a stinging
    critique in The Blaze, happened when ABC producers left unloaded guns where children would find them,
    to see how the youngsters would react. would include some jibes and jokes
    that would go completely over a child’s head while providing some entertainment for.
    But which animated films do I find to be some of the scariest.

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