It’s Not The TOBS

Someone suggested that the divergence between measured US temperatures and NCDC published US temperatures is due to Time Of Observation Bias.

I tested that out by comparing only versus stations which took morning or night readings on July 15, 1936. These stations should be biased cold in the 1930s, and produce more warming than the full set of stations. It doesn’t make much difference. The frequency of 90 degree days is still very low in 2014.

ScreenHunter_3900 Oct. 21 05.47

There is still a hockey stick of divergence between the measured and reported US temperatures.

ScreenHunter_3901 Oct. 21 06.03

Over the last 20 years, the TOBS adjustment should be a downwards adjustment. The 1936 afternoon stations are warming faster than the 1936 morning stations. USHCN TOBS adjustments do the exact opposite and make the problem worse.

ScreenHunter_3902 Oct. 21 06.12

TOBS does not account for the discrepancy between measured and reported US temperatures. Here is the list of morning/night stations

FAIRHOPE 2 NE       	AL
AJO                 	AZ
CHILDS              	AZ
FT VALLEY           	AZ
GRAND CANYON NP 2   	AZ
LEES FERRY          	AZ
MIAMI               	AZ
PARKER              	AZ
PRESCOTT            	AZ
ROOSEVELT 1 WNW     	AZ
SACATON             	AZ
SAFFORD AGRICULTRL C	AZ
SAINT JOHNS         	AZ
TUCSON WFO          	AZ
WICKENBURG          	AZ
WILLIAMS            	AZ
YUMA CITRUS STN     	AZ
GRAVETTE            	AR
BERKELEY            	CA
BLYTHE              	CA
CEDARVILLE          	CA
CHULA VISTA         	CA
CUYAMACA            	CA
DAVIS 2 WSW EXP FARM	CA
FAIRMONT            	CA
FARMVILLE 2 N       	VA
HANFORD 1 S         	CA
HEALDSBURG          	CA
INDEPENDENCE        	CA
LODI                	CA
MERCED              	CA
NEWPORT BEACH HARBOR	CA
ORLAND              	CA
ORLEANS             	CA
PASO ROBLES         	CA
QUINCY              	CA
SAN LUIS OBISPO POLY	CA
SUSANVILLE 2SW      	CA
TAHOE CITY          	CA
TEJON RANCHO        	CA
TUSTIN IRVINE RCH   	CA
WILLOWS 6 W         	CA
YREKA               	CA
FT COLLINS          	CO
FT MORGAN           	CO
TRINIDAD            	CO
MILFORD 2 SE        	DE
APALACHICOLA  AIRPOR	FL
BARTOW              	FL
BELLE GLADE         	FL
FT LAUDERDALE       	FL
FT PIERCE           	FL
LAKE CITY 2 E       	FL
OCALA               	FL
PERRINE 4W          	FL
TARPON SPGS SEWAGE P	FL
BAINBRIDGE INTL PAPE	GA
EASTMAN 1 W         	GA
GLENNVILLE 3NW      	GA
HAWKINSVILLE        	GA
MILLEDGEVILLE       	GA
NEWNAN 5N           	GA
QUITMAN 2 NW        	GA
TIFTON              	GA
WEST POINT          	GA
ARROWROCK DAM       	ID
CAMBRIDGE           	ID
DWORSHAK FISH HATCH 	ID
FENN RS             	ID
HOLLISTER           	ID
KELLOGG             	ID
OAKLEY              	ID
PAYETTE             	ID
SALMON-KSRA         	ID
MCLEANSBORO         	IL
WALNUT              	IL
DELPHI 2 N          	IN
PAOLI               	IN
SALEM               	IN
SHOALS 8 S          	IN
CHARLES CITY        	IA
FOREST CITY 2 NNE   	IA
COLUMBUS            	KS
INDEPENDENCE        	KS
SAINT FRANCIS       	KS
WAKEENEY            	KS
FRANKFORT DOWNTOWN  	KY
ALEXANDRIA          	LA
BASTROP             	LA
PLAIN DEALING 4 W   	LA
EASTPORT            	ME
LEWISTON            	ME
WOODLAND            	ME
CUMBERLAND 2        	MD
MILLINGTON 1 SE     	MD
PRINCESS ANNE       	MD
AMHERST             	MA
BEDFORD             	MA
GREAT BARRINGTON 2N 	MA
LAWRENCE            	MA
PLYMOUTH-KINGSTON   	MA
ALLEGAN 5NE         	MI
FAYETTE 4 SW        	MI
MIDLAND             	MI
CHASKA              	MN
DETROIT LAKES 1 NNE 	MN
MORRIS WC EXP STN   	MN
NEW ULM 2 SE        	MN
PIPESTONE           	MN
CANTON 4N           	MS
GREENVILLE          	MS
KOSCIUSKO           	MS
NATCHEZ             	MS
PONTOTOC EXP STN    	MS
STATE UNIV          	MS
APPLETON CITY       	MO
CLINTON             	MO
FARMINGTON          	MO
JEFFERSON CITY WTP  	MO
LAMAR 2W            	MO
LEBANON 2W          	MO
LEES SUMMIT REED WR 	MO
LEXINGTON 3E        	MO
MEXICO              	MO
MOBERLY             	MO
MTN GROVE 2 N       	MO
SPICKARD 7 W        	MO
UNIONVILLE          	MO
ANACONDA            	MT
CHINOOK             	MT
FORKS 4 NNE         	MT
FT ASSINNIBOINE     	MT
FORTINE 1 N         	MT
HUNTLEY EXP STN     	MT
KALISPELL GLACIER AP	MT
MOCCASIN EXP STN    	MT
PLEVNA              	MT
ALLIANCE 1WNW       	NE
ATKINSON 3SW        	NE
BEATRICE 1N         	NE
BROKEN BOW 2 W      	NE
CRETE               	NE
FAIRBURY 5S         	NE
FAIRMONT            	NE
FRANKLIN            	NE
IMPERIAL            	NE
LODGEPOLE           	NE
NORTH LOUP          	NE
OAKDALE             	NE
PURDUM              	NE
WEEPING WATER       	NE
AUSTIN #2           	NV
FALLON EXP STN      	NV
MCGILL              	NV
MINA                	NV
WELLS               	NV
BOONTON 1 SE        	NJ
INDIAN MILLS 2 W    	NJ
MOORESTOWN          	NJ
FT SUMNER           	NM
LAS VEGAS WWTP      	NM
MTN PARK            	NM
TUCUMCARI 4 NE      	NM
TULAROSA            	NM
BATAVIA             	NY
ELMIRA              	NY
GLENHAM             	NY
INDIAN LAKE 2SW     	NY
ITHACA CORNELL UNIV 	NY
LAKE PLACID 2 S     	NY
LOWVILLE            	NY
OSWEGO EAST         	NY
SETAUKET STRONG     	NY
STILLWATER RSVR     	NY
TROY L&D            	NY
TUPPER LAKE SUNMOUNT	NY
WALDEN 1 ESE        	NY
WALES               	NY
WEST POINT          	NY
YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W 	NY
ALBEMARLE           	NC
ELIZABETH CITY      	NC
KINSTON 7 SE        	NC
SMITHFIELD          	NC
TARBORO 1 S         	NC
WAYNESVILLE 1 E     	NC
BOTTINEAU           	ND
CROSBY              	ND
DICKINSON EXP STN   	ND
DUNN CENTER  1E     	ND
FT YATES 4 SW       	ND
FULLERTON 1 ESE     	ND
JAMESTOWN STATE HOSP	ND
LANGDON EXP FARM    	ND
LISBON              	ND
MANDAN EXP STN      	ND
NAPOLEON            	ND
NEW ENGLAND         	ND
RICHARDTON ABBEY    	ND
FINDLAY WPCC        	OH
HILLSBORO           	OH
BEND                	OR
BROOKINGS 2 SE      	OR
CONDON              	OR
FREMONT 5 NW        	OR
HEPPNER             	OR
MC MINNVILLE        	OR
PILOT ROCK 1 SE     	OR
ROSEBURG KQEN       	OR
TILLAMOOK           	OR
VALE                	OR
FRANKLIN            	PA
NEW CASTLE 1 N      	PA
PALMERTON           	PA
READING 4 NNW       	PA
RIDGWAY             	PA
STROUDSBURG         	PA
ANDERSON            	SC
CHERAW              	SC
COLUMBIA UNIV OF SC 	SC
CONWAY              	SC
DARLINGTON          	SC
GREENWOOD           	SC
KINGSTREE           	SC
ORANGEBURG 2        	SC
SUMMERVILLE 4W      	SC
YEMASSEE            	SC
DUPREE              	SD
FAULKTON 1 NW       	SD
FORESTBURG 4 NNE    	SD
GANN VALLEY 4NW     	SD
MILBANK 4 NW        	SD
OAHE DAM            	SD
RAPID CITY 4NW      	SD
COPPERHILL          	TN
CROSSVILLE ED & RESE	TN
DOVER 1 W           	TN
MURFREESBORO 5 N    	TN
NEWPORT 1 NW        	TN
UNION CITY          	TN
ALBANY              	TX
ALICE               	TX
ALPINE              	TX
BALLINGER 2 NW      	TX
BALMORHEA           	TX
BLANCO              	TX
BOYS RANCH          	TX
BRENHAM             	TX
BROWNWOOD 2ENE      	TX
CATARINA            	TX
CORSICANA           	TX
CROSBYTON           	TX
DANEVANG 1 W        	TX
DUBLIN 2SE          	TX
EAGLE PASS 3N       	TX
ENCINAL             	TX
FALFURRIAS          	TX
GREENVILLE KGVL RADI	TX
HASKELL             	TX
LAMPASAS            	TX
LLANO               	TX
LULING              	TX
MCCAMEY             	TX
MEXIA               	TX
MIAMI               	TX
MULESHOE #1         	TX
NEW BRAUNFELS       	TX
PECOS               	TX
QUANAH 2 SW         	TX
RIO GRANDE CITY     	TX
SNYDER              	TX
TEMPLE              	TX
WEATHERFORD         	TX
ALTON               	UT
DESERET             	UT
ESCALANTE           	UT
FILLMORE            	UT
FT DUCHESNE         	UT
HEBER               	UT
LEVAN               	UT
LOGAN UTAH ST UNIV  	UT
PANGUITCH           	UT
ST GEORGE           	UT
SCIPIO              	UT
UTAH LAKE LEHI      	UT
BREMO BLUFF         	VA
CHARLOTTESVILLE 2W  	VA
DALE ENTERPRISE     	VA
PENNINGTON GAP      	VA
PIEDMONT RSCH STN   	VA
ROCKY MT            	VA
STAUNTON WATER TRMTM	VA
WILLIAMSBURG 2 N    	VA
BLAINE              	WA
CEDAR LAKE          	WA
LONG BEACH EXP STN  	WA
ODESSA              	WA
POMEROY             	WA
PORT ANGELES        	WA
PULLMAN 2 NW        	WA
RAYMOND 2 S         	WA
RITZVILLE 1 SSE     	WA
SUNNYSIDE           	WA
WATERVILLE          	WA
WENATCHEE           	WA
WILBUR              	WA
SPENCER             	WV
HANCOCK EXP FARM    	WI
MANITOWOC           	WI
ALTA 1 NNW          	WY
COLONY              	WY
GREEN RIVER         	WY
MIDWEST             	WY
NEWCASTLE           	WY
SARATOGA            	WY
SHERIDAN FLD STA    	WY
WORLAND             	WY
YELLOWSTONE PK MAMMO	WY

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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6 Responses to It’s Not The TOBS

  1. tom0mason says:

    NCDC technical spokesman replies –
    “Awgh, you jest went an’ cherry-picked them thare un-adjusted temper’tures.
    Why’d you do that? Eh? That’s why’d you dun got the wrong answer. “

  2. Gerard Wroe says:

    Why don’t you work with someone like Judith Curry to get a paper published?

  3. Truthseeker says:

    Steve, it is TOBS … Total Official Bull Sh!t

    It is all in the definition …

  4. talldave2 says:

    Apparently they use a TOBS algorithm that has nothing to do with any particular stations or times, but instead does some kind of crazy raw data analysis to come up with which temperatures “should” be wrong, just based on patterns in the data. If that sounds like a recipe for confirmation bias, well…

  5. wyoskeptic says:

    It is interesting, to me at least, how anyone can say reducing all of a year’s weather to one little number, the “average” temperature for the the year, makes any sense. I have put together a few graphs, using raw data — as raw as I can get, anyway — to show what the weather in my town has been like for the last 36 years, compared to the average from around 1902 to 2012 taken from COOP data.

    http://wp.me/p4MyHW-32

    Comparing one year to the next on the basis of one synthesized, homogenized and very possibly outright bogus number from NOAA is like taking a panoramic photograph and reducing it to 1 or 2 pixels and then claiming it shows everything the original does.

    The only reason any of them messes with the old data is because using it as is doesn’t show what the message is supposed to be, so they have to justify changing it until it does show what they want it to show.

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