TOBS Isn’t An Excuse

There are 318 US HCN stations which recorded their min/max readings during morning or night on July 15, 1936. These stations should have an artificial warming bias, because of TOBS double counting of low temperatures in the 1930’s.

Like the full set of stations, these stations show little or no warming since 1920, which tells us that the effect of TOBS is minimal – and that the US is not on a long term warming trend.

ScreenHunter_5341 Dec. 19 11.51

List of stations used in this analysis :

FAIRHOPE 2 NE       	AL	USC00012813
AJO                 	AZ	USC00020080
CHILDS              	AZ	USC00021614
FT VALLEY           	AZ	USC00023160
GRAND CANYON NP 2   	AZ	USC00023596
LEES FERRY          	AZ	USC00024849
MIAMI               	AZ	USC00025512
PARKER              	AZ	USC00026250
PRESCOTT            	AZ	USC00026796
ROOSEVELT 1 WNW     	AZ	USC00027281
SACATON             	AZ	USC00027370
SAFFORD AGRICULTRL C	AZ	USC00027390
SAINT JOHNS         	AZ	USC00027435
TUCSON WFO          	AZ	USC00028815
WICKENBURG          	AZ	USC00029287
WILLIAMS            	AZ	USC00029359
YUMA CITRUS STN     	AZ	USC00029652
GRAVETTE            	AR	USC00032930
BERKELEY            	CA	USC00040693
BLYTHE              	CA	USC00040924
CEDARVILLE          	CA	USC00041614
CHULA VISTA         	CA	USC00041758
CUYAMACA            	CA	USC00042239
DAVIS 2 WSW EXP FARM	CA	USC00042294
FAIRMONT            	CA	USC00042941
FARMVILLE 2 N       	VA	USC00442941
HANFORD 1 S         	CA	USC00043747
HEALDSBURG          	CA	USC00043875
INDEPENDENCE        	CA	USC00044232
LODI                	CA	USC00045032
MERCED              	CA	USC00045532
NEWPORT BEACH HARBOR	CA	USC00046175
ORLAND              	CA	USC00046506
ORLEANS             	CA	USC00046508
PASO ROBLES         	CA	USC00046730
QUINCY              	CA	USC00047195
SAN LUIS OBISPO POLY	CA	USC00047851
SUSANVILLE 2SW      	CA	USC00048702
TAHOE CITY          	CA	USC00048758
TEJON RANCHO        	CA	USC00048839
TUSTIN IRVINE RCH   	CA	USC00049087
WILLOWS 6 W         	CA	USC00049699
YREKA               	CA	USC00049866
FT COLLINS          	CO	USC00053005
FT MORGAN           	CO	USC00053038
TRINIDAD            	CO	USC00058429
MILFORD 2 SE        	DE	USC00075915
APALACHICOLA  AIRPOR	FL	USC00080211
BARTOW              	FL	USC00080478
BELLE GLADE         	FL	USC00080611
FT LAUDERDALE       	FL	USC00083163
FT PIERCE           	FL	USC00083207
LAKE CITY 2 E       	FL	USC00084731
OCALA               	FL	USC00086414
PERRINE 4W          	FL	USC00087020
TARPON SPGS SEWAGE P	FL	USC00088824
BAINBRIDGE INTL PAPE	GA	USC00090586
EASTMAN 1 W         	GA	USC00092966
GLENNVILLE 3NW      	GA	USC00093754
HAWKINSVILLE        	GA	USC00094170
MILLEDGEVILLE       	GA	USC00095874
NEWNAN 5N           	GA	USC00096335
QUITMAN 2 NW        	GA	USC00097276
TIFTON              	GA	USC00098703
WEST POINT          	GA	USC00099291
ARROWROCK DAM       	ID	USC00100448
CAMBRIDGE           	ID	USC00101408
DWORSHAK FISH HATCH 	ID	USC00102845
FENN RS             	ID	USC00103143
HOLLISTER           	ID	USC00104295
KELLOGG             	ID	USC00104831
OAKLEY              	ID	USC00106542
PAYETTE             	ID	USC00106891
SALMON-KSRA         	ID	USC00108080
MCLEANSBORO         	IL	USC00115515
WALNUT              	IL	USC00118916
DELPHI 2 N          	IN	USC00122149
PAOLI               	IN	USC00126705
SALEM               	IN	USC00127755
SHOALS 8 S          	IN	USC00128036
CHARLES CITY        	IA	USC00131402
FOREST CITY 2 NNE   	IA	USC00132977
COLUMBUS            	KS	USC00141740
INDEPENDENCE        	KS	USC00143954
SAINT FRANCIS       	KS	USC00147093
WAKEENEY            	KS	USC00148495
FRANKFORT DOWNTOWN  	KY	USC00153028
ALEXANDRIA          	LA	USC00160098
BASTROP             	LA	USC00160537
PLAIN DEALING 4 W   	LA	USC00167344
EASTPORT            	ME	USC00172426
LEWISTON            	ME	USC00174566
WOODLAND            	ME	USC00179891
CUMBERLAND 2        	MD	USC00182282
MILLINGTON 1 SE     	MD	USC00185985
PRINCESS ANNE       	MD	USC00187330
AMHERST             	MA	USC00190120
BEDFORD             	MA	USC00190535
GREAT BARRINGTON 2N 	MA	USC00193213
LAWRENCE            	MA	USC00194105
PLYMOUTH-KINGSTON   	MA	USC00196486
ALLEGAN 5NE         	MI	USC00200128
FAYETTE 4 SW        	MI	USC00202737
MIDLAND             	MI	USC00205434
CHASKA              	MN	USC00211465
DETROIT LAKES 1 NNE 	MN	USC00212142
MORRIS WC EXP STN   	MN	USC00215638
NEW ULM 2 SE        	MN	USC00215887
PIPESTONE           	MN	USC00216565
CANTON 4N           	MS	USC00221389
GREENVILLE          	MS	USC00223605
KOSCIUSKO           	MS	USC00224776
NATCHEZ             	MS	USC00226177
PONTOTOC EXP STN    	MS	USC00227111
STATE UNIV          	MS	USC00228374
APPLETON CITY       	MO	USC00230204
CLINTON             	MO	USC00231711
FARMINGTON          	MO	USC00232809
JEFFERSON CITY WTP  	MO	USC00234271
LAMAR 2W            	MO	USC00234705
LEBANON 2W          	MO	USC00234825
LEES SUMMIT REED WR 	MO	USC00234850
LEXINGTON 3E        	MO	USC00234904
MEXICO              	MO	USC00235541
MOBERLY             	MO	USC00235671
MTN GROVE 2 N       	MO	USC00235834
SPICKARD 7 W        	MO	USC00237963
UNIONVILLE          	MO	USC00238523
ANACONDA            	MT	USC00240199
CHINOOK             	MT	USC00241722
FORKS 4 NNE         	MT	USC00243089
FT ASSINNIBOINE     	MT	USC00243110
FORTINE 1 N         	MT	USC00243139
HUNTLEY EXP STN     	MT	USC00244345
KALISPELL GLACIER AP	MT	USC00244558
MOCCASIN EXP STN    	MT	USC00245761
PLEVNA              	MT	USC00246601
ALLIANCE 1WNW       	NE	USC00250130
ATKINSON 3SW        	NE	USC00250420
BEATRICE 1N         	NE	USC00250622
BROKEN BOW 2 W      	NE	USC00251200
CRETE               	NE	USC00252020
FAIRBURY 5S         	NE	USC00252820
FAIRMONT            	NE	USC00252840
FRANKLIN            	NE	USC00253035
IMPERIAL            	NE	USC00254110
LODGEPOLE           	NE	USC00254900
NORTH LOUP          	NE	USC00256040
OAKDALE             	NE	USC00256135
PURDUM              	NE	USC00256970
WEEPING WATER       	NE	USC00259090
AUSTIN #2           	NV	USC00260507
FALLON EXP STN      	NV	USC00262780
MCGILL              	NV	USC00264950
MINA                	NV	USC00265168
WELLS               	NV	USC00268988
BOONTON 1 SE        	NJ	USC00280907
INDIAN MILLS 2 W    	NJ	USC00284229
MOORESTOWN          	NJ	USC00285728
FT SUMNER           	NM	USC00293294
LAS VEGAS WWTP      	NM	USC00294862
MTN PARK            	NM	USC00295960
TUCUMCARI 4 NE      	NM	USC00299156
TULAROSA            	NM	USC00299165
BATAVIA             	NY	USC00300443
ELMIRA              	NY	USC00302610
GLENHAM             	NY	USC00303259
INDIAN LAKE 2SW     	NY	USC00304102
ITHACA CORNELL UNIV 	NY	USC00304174
LAKE PLACID 2 S     	NY	USC00304555
LOWVILLE            	NY	USC00304912
OSWEGO EAST         	NY	USC00306314
SETAUKET STRONG     	NY	USC00307633
STILLWATER RSVR     	NY	USC00308248
TROY L D            	NY	USC00308600
TUPPER LAKE SUNMOUNT	NY	USC00308631
WALDEN 1 ESE        	NY	USC00308906
WALES               	NY	USC00308910
WEST POINT          	NY	USC00309292
YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W 	NY	USC00309670
ALBEMARLE           	NC	USC00310090
ELIZABETH CITY      	NC	USC00312719
KINSTON 7 SE        	NC	USC00314684
SMITHFIELD          	NC	USC00317994
TARBORO 1 S         	NC	USC00318500
WAYNESVILLE 1 E     	NC	USC00319147
BOTTINEAU           	ND	USC00320941
CROSBY              	ND	USC00321871
DICKINSON EXP STN   	ND	USC00322188
DUNN CENTER  1E     	ND	USC00322365
FT YATES 4 SW       	ND	USC00323207
FULLERTON 1 ESE     	ND	USC00323287
JAMESTOWN STATE HOSP	ND	USC00324418
LANGDON EXP FARM    	ND	USC00324958
LISBON              	ND	USC00325220
MANDAN EXP STN      	ND	USC00325479
NAPOLEON            	ND	USC00326255
NEW ENGLAND         	ND	USC00326315
RICHARDTON ABBEY    	ND	USC00327530
FINDLAY WPCC        	OH	USC00332791
HILLSBORO           	OH	USC00333758
BEND                	OR	USC00350694
BROOKINGS 2 SE      	OR	USC00351055
CONDON              	OR	USC00351765
FREMONT 5 NW        	OR	USC00353095
HEPPNER             	OR	USC00353827
MC MINNVILLE        	OR	USC00355384
PILOT ROCK 1 SE     	OR	USC00356634
ROSEBURG KQEN       	OR	USC00357331
TILLAMOOK           	OR	USC00358494
VALE                	OR	USC00358797
FRANKLIN            	PA	USC00363028
NEW CASTLE 1 N      	PA	USC00366233
PALMERTON           	PA	USC00366689
READING 4 NNW       	PA	USC00367322
RIDGWAY             	PA	USC00367477
STROUDSBURG         	PA	USC00368596
ANDERSON            	SC	USC00380165
CHERAW              	SC	USC00381588
COLUMBIA UNIV OF SC 	SC	USC00381944
CONWAY              	SC	USC00381997
DARLINGTON          	SC	USC00382260
GREENWOOD           	SC	USC00383754
KINGSTREE           	SC	USC00384753
ORANGEBURG 2        	SC	USC00386527
SUMMERVILLE 4W      	SC	USC00388426
YEMASSEE            	SC	USC00389469
DUPREE              	SD	USC00392429
FAULKTON 1 NW       	SD	USC00392927
FORESTBURG 4 NNE    	SD	USC00393029
GANN VALLEY 4NW     	SD	USC00393217
MILBANK 4 NW        	SD	USC00395536
OAHE DAM            	SD	USC00396170
RAPID CITY 4NW      	SD	USC00396947
COPPERHILL          	TN	USC00402024
CROSSVILLE ED   RESE	TN	USC00402202
DOVER 1 W           	TN	USC00402589
MURFREESBORO 5 N    	TN	USC00406371
NEWPORT 1 NW        	TN	USC00406534
UNION CITY          	TN	USC00409219
ALBANY              	TX	USC00410120
ALICE               	TX	USC00410144
ALPINE              	TX	USC00410174
BALLINGER 2 NW      	TX	USC00410493
BALMORHEA           	TX	USC00410498
BLANCO              	TX	USC00410832
BOYS RANCH          	TX	USC00411000
BRENHAM             	TX	USC00411048
BROWNWOOD 2ENE      	TX	USC00411138
CATARINA            	TX	USC00411528
CORSICANA           	TX	USC00412019
CROSBYTON           	TX	USC00412121
DANEVANG 1 W        	TX	USC00412266
DUBLIN 2SE          	TX	USC00412598
EAGLE PASS 3N       	TX	USC00412679
ENCINAL             	TX	USC00412906
FALFURRIAS          	TX	USC00413063
GREENVILLE KGVL RADI	TX	USC00413734
HASKELL             	TX	USC00413992
LAMPASAS            	TX	USC00415018
LLANO               	TX	USC00415272
LULING              	TX	USC00415429
MCCAMEY             	TX	USC00415707
MEXIA               	TX	USC00415869
MIAMI               	TX	USC00415875
MULESHOE #1         	TX	USC00416135
NEW BRAUNFELS       	TX	USC00416276
PECOS               	TX	USC00416892
QUANAH 2 SW         	TX	USC00417336
RIO GRANDE CITY     	TX	USC00417622
SNYDER              	TX	USC00418433
TEMPLE              	TX	USC00418910
WEATHERFORD         	TX	USC00419532
ALTON               	UT	USC00420086
DESERET             	UT	USC00422101
ESCALANTE           	UT	USC00422592
FILLMORE            	UT	USC00422828
FT DUCHESNE         	UT	USC00422996
HEBER               	UT	USC00423809
LEVAN               	UT	USC00425065
LOGAN UTAH ST UNIV  	UT	USC00425186
PANGUITCH           	UT	USC00426601
ST GEORGE           	UT	USC00427516
SCIPIO              	UT	USC00427714
UTAH LAKE LEHI      	UT	USC00428973
BREMO BLUFF         	VA	USC00440993
CHARLOTTESVILLE 2W  	VA	USC00441593
DALE ENTERPRISE     	VA	USC00442208
PENNINGTON GAP      	VA	USC00446626
PIEDMONT RSCH STN   	VA	USC00446712
ROCKY MT            	VA	USC00447338
STAUNTON WATER TRMTM	VA	USC00448062
WILLIAMSBURG 2 N    	VA	USC00449151
BLAINE              	WA	USC00450729
CEDAR LAKE          	WA	USC00451233
LONG BEACH EXP STN  	WA	USC00454748
ODESSA              	WA	USC00456039
POMEROY             	WA	USC00456610
PORT ANGELES        	WA	USC00456624
PULLMAN 2 NW        	WA	USC00456789
RAYMOND 2 S         	WA	USC00456914
RITZVILLE 1 SSE     	WA	USC00457059
SUNNYSIDE           	WA	USC00458207
WATERVILLE          	WA	USC00459012
WENATCHEE           	WA	USC00459074
WILBUR              	WA	USC00459238
SPENCER             	WV	USC00468384
HANCOCK EXP FARM    	WI	USC00473405
MANITOWOC           	WI	USC00475017
ALTA 1 NNW          	WY	USC00480140
COLONY              	WY	USC00481905
GREEN RIVER         	WY	USC00484065
MIDWEST             	WY	USC00486195
NEWCASTLE           	WY	USC00486660
SARATOGA            	WY	USC00487990
SHERIDAN FLD STA    	WY	USC00488160
WORLAND             	WY	USC00489770
YELLOWSTONE PK MAMMO	WY	USC00489905

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About stevengoddard

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17 Responses to TOBS Isn’t An Excuse

  1. Interesting.

    This is the kind of simple checks I asked for and expected from Hausfather et al. – “Where did you quantify the effect size before proceeding to adjust for it?”

    • Jason Calley says:

      Yes, and before I started reading on the subject I assumed (OK, OK, I know about “assume” now…) that this sort of basic check was being done. I recently asked a CAGW friend (who is slowly becoming skeptical) how he knew the Global Climate Models were accurate. He told me, “Well, I assume that they do hindcasting with them to make sure that the physics is right…”

      Whole lot’a assumin’ goin’ on.

      Thanks, Tony, for pointing out the facts.

      • Gail Combs says:

        A couple of facts for your warmist buddy:

        the official definition of ‘climate change’:

        “Climate change” means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

        That’s from the official UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/2536.php). The term specifically excludes all natural climate change, and even excludes any caused by humans due to, for example, land clearance or city building, considering only atmospheric changes.

        The IPCC says about models:

        …in climate research and modeling we should recognise that we are dealing with a complex non linear chaotic signature and therefore that long-term prediction of future climatic states is not possible

        IPCC 2001 section 4.2.2.2 page 774

      • Acres of Statuary says:

        Your friend assumed correctly. They do do hindcasting and if you look at the hindcast graphs they do retrodict the temperatures remarkably well during the ‘reference period’ (which was 1979-1999, IIRC, and I may not). However, there are so many parameters in the models that they can be made to hindcast anything. However, outside of the reference period the model temperatures diverge from reality both before and after the reference period and the models themselves diverge in their predictions. It’s a classic case of overfitting.

  2. Frank K. says:

    Thanks Steve. I have a copy of the NOAA FORTRAN code that is used for processing the USHCN data. I have located the TOBS part and will study it to see if I can discern how they are adjusting the temperatures.

    One of the interesting things about TOBS is that (as far as I can tell) TOBS adjustments are ONLY applied to US temperatures! Which is to say, all of the historical global data was collected by observers at precisely the same time each day – from the heart of Africa to the snowy cold of Siberia. It would be also interesting to know if any adjustment for observation times are done for historical sea surface temperatures – likely not.

  3. SMS says:

    I don’t really understand how TOBS can continue to impact the temperature record. Some questions that I don’t have answers to are: when did we start collecting temperature records on an extensive basis?, how accurate were the first thermometers?, when did min/max thermometers get distributed and begin delivering temperatures?, when did the US/World data gatherers shift their collection times to compensate for TOBS? when did MMS data gathering devices get distributed?

    When the change was made to min/max thermometers, there might be a shift one direction or another in the temperatures gathered. But wouldn’t both sets of thermometers be used to deliver data that could be compared for accuracy? When the time was changed for gathering data to eliminate TOBS there would have been a simultaneous set of data to determine what the TOBS would be for the prior data gathered. Where is that study? If any TOBS were needed to correct for prior temperatures, that correction would only affect the temperature history from that date going backwards. A cooling of the past from the point in time TOBS is determined and then applied. It would be a single, common, uniform adjustment for prior years and would not affect temperature records going forward. You wouldn’t see corrections jumping all over the place.

    With the introduction of MMS devices, there would be no need to adjust for TOBS, or any other form of adjustments, other than UHI. I do not understand how greater and greater adjustments are needed as our temperature recorders get more accurate. It’s the oxymoron of climate science.

    So, I am confused. There is no way I can justify the corrections that are being made to the current temperature record. It seems as though our government climate scientists are holding their cards pretty close to their vests; unwilling to explain how justifications for temperature adjustments are made. It may be that they don’t understand themselves.

    • mjc says:

      The first couple of questions are answered by…sometime between 1870 and 1900.

      I posted this link in another thread, but I think it is good for here, too…

      https://archive.org/details/instructionsforv00unitrich

      That’s the late 1890s instruction manual for the observers. It doesn’t exactly answer your first questions, but it does show that the devices and techniques were in use for a while.

      MMS is still ‘new’. It hasn’t been around for more than 20 yrs (widespread use, at any rate).

      • SMS says:

        That is an interesting booklet. I found this paragraph most interesting:

        The mean of the highest and lowest temperature of the day, as observed with a maximum and minimum thermometer, gives a temperature on the average about 1 degree higher throughout the year than the hourly mean at places in the United States. This is the mean adopted by the Weather Bureau for the observations at the regular meteorological stations.

        Then follows a recommendation on how to take a number of temperature readings through the day to minimize the correction referenced above. If the observer follows the recommendations, then TOBS is minimized.

        • mjc says:

          Exactly…so they are saying now, that all the old observers either didn’t follow directions or that the directions they were told to follow were total crap.

  4. Pops says:

    I’m not a scientist, but recall hearing there’s an approximate 60-year climate oscillation due perhaps to the sun. The graph seems to show this quite distinctly. The 30s were hot, the 60s were cold, and the 90s were hot. I suppose we’re next due for bottoming out in the 2020s, then the climate alarmists can ramp it up again afterward without having to fabricate data.

  5. Dougmanxx says:

    TOBS isn’t the problem.The changes to past temperature records are a result of the PHA. You do not see the same internal changes to the data in the TOBS dataset as you do in the “Final” data. Meaning: if you compare a TOBS dataset from last month, it will be the same as this month. If you compare the “Final” dataset, after PHA has run, you will have different data this month, compared to last month. This is not to say TOBS is legitimate, but it is not the source of the ongoing changes you see in the “historical” record.

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