Real Climate Steig Debunks Global Warming Theory

An efficient way to form lots of Antarctic sea ice during the autumn growth season is to have strong winds that push the ice away from the coastline. Pushing sea ice away leaves open water that can lose heat to the atmosphere, creating more sea ice.

RealClimate: Clarity on Antarctic sea ice.

Steig is blaming the record Antarctic sea ice on global warming, and then describing it is a negative feedback which is somehow consistent with climate models. That directly contradicts the foundations of Hansen’s feedback theories. Hansen predicted peak global warming of 8°C – right where the peak sea ice gain has occurred in the Weddell Sea.

ScreenHunter_5519 Dec. 24 08.20ScreenHunter_5512 Dec. 24 07.59

archive.org/…. epa.gov/climatechange/…./Challenge_chapter2.pdf

Hansen also predicted peak sea ice loss in the Weddell Sea, right where the peak sea ice gain has occurred.

ScreenHunter_5518 Dec. 24 08.16

No, they didn’t predict it all along, and a negative feedback is a direct contradiction of a fundamental tenet of global warming theory.

But it is worse than it seems. Not only is Antarctic sea ice at record levels in winter, but it is also at record levels in summer, when the sun is highest in the sky. Thus more sunlight is getting reflected back into space, which further cools the Earth. Another negative feedback, undermining global warming theory.

ScreenHunter_5509 Dec. 24 07.36

arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.south.anom.1979-2008

Ten years ago, Gavin reported that temperatures decreased significantly over most of Antarctica.

ScreenHunter_5523 Dec. 24 08.46Pubs.GISS: Abstract of Shindell and Schmidt 2004

But it is even worse than it seems. Experts like Walt Meier used to claim that the Antarctic sea ice anomalies occurred only in winter, when it didn’t affect albedo. Obviously that isn’t correct.

But it is even “worser” than that seems. Gavin claims this is the hottest year ever, with record Antarctic sea ice and near record winter and autumn northern hemisphere snow extent.

nhland_season4 (2)

nhland_season1 (1)

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

The team also cleverly ignores the fact that satellite data shows the troposphere is nowhere near the warmest on record.

ScreenHunter_5521 Dec. 24 08.25 Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

This entire global warming farce is in complete collapse, and they are in full on propaganda mode now. All they have left is fabricating data and making up fake ad hoc excuses.

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32 Responses to Real Climate Steig Debunks Global Warming Theory

  1. gator69 says:

    “All they have left is fabricating data and making up fake ad hoc excuses.”

    And an endless army of useless idiots.

    • Gail Combs says:

      It is that endless army that is the problem.

      • Don says:

        Yes indeed, I deal with a few of those useful idiots at DTT dot com. Once people swallow the AGW meme they seem to be incapable of any independent thought. Their vicious remarks towards Tony, towards myself, show that they have adopted AGW as a religious belief like the type that need an intervention.

        • Gail Combs says:

          CAGW plays into their belief that mankind and particularly those from the USA are EVIL and must be punished. Never mind the fact that if you were to make them live as they want the rest of us to they would throw a temper-tantrum of such epic proportions you would hear it around the world.

          They are also completely blind to the fact that the energy generated by wind and solar can not replace all the energy used in building and setting up wind and solar. They are a net energy loss. (But you won’t find many who will tell you that.)

        • philjourdan says:

          DIT – that is what they use to call the state IT department here, and it was universally reviled. SO they changed their name. But not their reason for revulsion in the first place.

    • catweazle666 says:

      And shouting abuse, of course.

      Why on Earth they believe that calling people names is going to advance their cause is a mystery.

      Then again, as they are almost without exception “Progressives” AKA Socialists, I suppose it goes with the territory.

      • gator69 says:

        Name calling works well for leftists, mainly because pop culture and the media parrot those names, giving them false legitimacy.

        “Racist” has been used with great efficacy to silence many discussions, and stopped Americans from possibly solving one of the biggest problems the US faces.

        • mjc says:

          There will not be a solution to the ‘racism’ problem until everyone realizes there is just one race…human. The ‘problem’ is all political.

        • Gail Combs says:

          Yes it is all political and Obama’s favorite …. LOOK A SQUIRREL!

          If there were no other issues, the damage Obummer has done to race relations should still put him as the worst president ever.

          I was quite surprised that race relations were a heck of a lot worse in the Bastille of Marxism, Boston MA then they are here in hickville NC. We were warned this was KKK territory. The only two KKK members I met were two buddies, one black and one white who spent about an hour educating us dumb yanks. (The black did most of the talking)

        • Snowleopard says:

          I’ll see their racist card and raise them a genocide.

          Their burning of food (biofuels) mostly mandated in the name of CAGW has easily caused more deaths from starvation in third world countries than the deaths caused by Hitler’s holocaust.

        • mjc says:

          Gail, down (up) here in WV the only confirmed KKK member I know of is the late Sen. R. C. Byrd…or was that ‘ex-member’ (but I thought KKK was like most things…once a member always a member…).

        • Gail Combs says:

          Snowleopard says:

          “I’ll see their racist card and raise them a genocide….”
          That is one of my primary reasons for hating the UN and WTO and the IPCC and all the politicians stuffing their pockets with money while deliberately making children starve.

          I can not understand how anyone with a conscience can support these people, but they do in droves.

        • geologyjim says:

          Gail –

          Back in the 60s, I believe it was black comic Dick Gregory who said:

          “Up North, the whites don’t seem to care how big we get as long as you don’t get too close”

          “Down South, the whites don’t seem to care how close we get as long as we don’t get too big”

          It’s all a matter of perspective, eh?

        • philjourdan says:

          The irony? The north’s subjugation of the south assured that blacks had an equal footing. But the rules that “enforced” that were never applied to the north, so it never happened there.

    • Dave1billion says:

      I thought the accepted term was “useful idiots”.

    • philjourdan says:

      Not useless – but definitely idiots. Every megalomaniac needs useful idiots.

  2. Bill says:

    Jim Hansen said that all feedbacks are positive. Nuff said. He also made some great puppets like Kermit and Miss Piggy back in the day.

  3. cheshirered says:

    More great work.
    Have you had your Christmas card yet from The Team, Tony? No? Must be stuck in the post, somewhere. Ho ho ho! 🙂

    Merry Christmas Sir, you’ve produced some brilliant work this year.

  4. Gail Combs says:

    One point missing in that great roundup was covered by RACookPE1978 at WUWT.

    ….Just remember, at today’s sea ice extents, the “edge” of the Arctic sea is a tiny ring about latitude 78 -82 north in mid-September. The “edge” of Antarctic’s sea ice minimum is also a “ring” – but that ring is about latitude 66 south. Much closer to the equator, much more energy reflected from the Antarctic sea ice, right? Now, at maximum extents, the “edge” Arctic sea ice is at its closest point to the equator is only down to 72 north, not even as close to the equator as the minimum Antarctic sea ice! But at its maximum, Antarctic sea ice extents is much, much higher at 59.2 to 59.0 latitude. Closer to the equator than even the most southern tip of Greenland!

    Now, at the equinoxes, when both Arctic and Antarctic are both hit by the same solar intensity, the Antarctic Sea Ice receives between 2x (Feb-March) to 5x (September-October) the energy that the Arctic sea ice receives. Thus, to reflect equal energy into space, the “gain” of even 1.0 Mkm^2 of southern sea ice extents needs to be balanced by a loss 2 to 5 LARGER in the Arctic.

    Instead, we see near even sea ice changes. So, since at today’s levels of sea ice extents, “more Arctic sea ice loss” up north means a net loss of energy from the planet [from open water radiating]; and “more sea ice extents gain” down south means a net loss of energy from the planet, we are facing a future big problem. If today’s trends continue.
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/01/southern-sea-ice-area-minimum-2nd-highest-on-record/#comment-1580076

    …The “excess” sea ice extents around Antarctica DO significantly affect the southern region’s climate, if the commonly accepted climate theory of solar energy absorbed and solar energy reflected is true.

    The Antarctic continental ice (14.0 Mkm^2) + Antarctic permanent ice shelves (3.5 Mkm^2) + the variable Antarctic sea ice itself (3.5 Mkm^2 to 19.5 Mkm^2) all combine to cover an area larger than the entire southern hemisphere continental land area combined!

    This Antarctic total ice cap covers the region from the south pole “up” latitude 59.2 south in September – a latitude closer to the equator than even Greenland southern tip. But, on the common Mercator maps, it is not even plotted! But, it reflects much more energy on a square-meter-by-square meter basis, than the Arctic sea ice “beanie” – which is limited to the little area between the north pole and latitude 72 north at most southern points near the Alaskan and Siberian coasts. So, the impact of the Antarctic sea ice is much greater than that of the arctic sea ice on any given comparable date across the solar year.

    Worse, the Antarctic sea ice minimum is exposed to significantly MORE solar radiation at the peak of the yearly solar cycle in January-February than the arctic sea ice minimum in August September, when the solar energy production is lower. (Solar minimum is 5 July each year, when the Arctic ice is exposed. But Antarctic sea ice – even at its minimum extents, is much more exposed in January.)
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/01/southern-sea-ice-area-minimum-2nd-highest-on-record/#comment-1580107

    Comment on Albedo starting here

    ALso see: wattsupwiththat(DOT)com/2014/02/18/how-much-sunlight-actually-enters-the-system/#comment-1571596
    Which is why I pay attention to the guy.

    Willis Eschenbach says:

    It strikes me while writing this that we might have enough data to answer the question. Sounds like a good project, and what I need is the gridded map of ice coverage on a 1° grid. With that plus the CERES data, we should be able to answer the question … always more things on my list.

    I’ve got that part solved: Inbound diffuse and direct SW solar radiation on an hour-by-hour basis for any day of year at any (arctic or antarctic) latitude.

    Have got ice albedo as it varies by day-of-year, open ocean albedo as it varies by hour-of-day (solar elevation angle) and day-of-year and wind speed. So albedo and reflected or absorbed values are ready for you for each day-of-year and latitude for direct and diffuse radiation…..

    Nothing like an engineer to point out the holes.

  5. Pathway says:

    But it pays the bills. Bad thing is that it is our hard earned money that funds the fraud.

  6. Gail Combs says:

    “….In general, Antarctic sea ice forms near the coastline, where upwelling waters cool to the atmosphere. It melts when the winds and currents push it into areas of warmer water to the north. In the summer, it melts pretty much all the way back to the coast.…..”
    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/12/clarity-on-antarctic-sea-ice/

    My lord what absolute bovine feces. I guess he missed the Christmas Turkey and the Ship of Fools last year who also made the same mistake of believing the propaganda and not bothering to look at the actual satellite images.

    (The winter solstice was Sunday, December 21 so it is summer in the SH.)

    • Jimbo says:

      Here is what the IPCC has said on Antarctica sea ice.

      Most models simulate a small decreasing trend in Antarctic sea ice extent, albeit with large inter-model spread, in contrast to the small increasing trend in observations. {9.4.3}

      There is low confidence in the scientific understanding of the small observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent due to the incomplete and competing scientific explanations for the causes of change and low confidence in estimates of internal variability in that region. {10.5.1}…
      http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf

  7. Gail Combs says:

    One of the points left out is just where the Arctic and Antarctic are:
    A good chunk of the shore line extends beyond 70S

    The Arctic ocean is pretty much within 70N

    And that doesn’t even get into the earth’s tilt.

  8. Chewer says:

    I hope the “Serious Case of The Schmidt’s” isn’t contagious 😉

  9. Keith says:

    Steve , Merry Christmas. Your blog is a source of information and entertainment.

    I think NOAA is producing a new hockey stick in terms of its renewed version of sea surface temperatures – http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/15/noaa-is-updating-their-sea-surface-temperature-dataset/

    Although they claim to use satellite data as a reference, this temperature profile is very different to other profiles. For example, 2014 is suddenly higher than the 2004 – 2009 general level, whereas RSS and UAH show 2014 around the 2004 level. (I know they are measuring totally different things, but the satellites are used as “reference”).

    Worse, the new NOAA information suggests 2014 sea temperatures are suddenly higher than 1998’s mega El Niño. Hmmmnn.

    This will be / is being used to tout the “2014 as warmest ever meme”, as you have covered many times and as also covered by Judith Curry. http://judithcurry.com/2014/12/09/spinning-the-warmest-year/

  10. Jimmy Haigh says:

    BullSchmidt.

  11. Centinel2012 says:

    Reblogged this on Centinel2012 and commented:
    What more can one say their theory is a joke, they know it, and they are trying to hide it with common core science!

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