Our friends at NCDC were unhappy that the US wasn’t warming, so sometime after 1991 they simply lobbed 0.4C off of all pre-1990 US temperatures
Zeke says that I can’t use absolute temperatures, to compare against NCDC’s absolute temperatures. I love working with these folks – they simply make up rules and data as convenient for the argument.
Steven you should sponsor a contest to see who can find a current set of temperatures, supplied by a government agency or government funded university, that hasn’t been manipulated to create an historical warming trend. The winner gets a slightly used hockey stick with a bristlecone pine veneered blade and an ersatz Nobel Prize key fob.
The NOAA National Temperature Index – USCRN plots seem reasonable. USCRN data are only available from 2005, but they put to rest the lie about 2014 being the “hottest year ever”, at least for the US.
Are any NOAA Climate at a Glance Time Series temperature plots based on actual non-manipulated data? Perhaps the monthly Maximum Temperatures and Minimum Temperatures?
Good one. Hah!
TRUTH? really? B.S.!
Speaking of Zeke and the rest of the BEST crew, such as the Mosh pup and Judith Curry, it looks like Judith Curry did a hatchet job on Steve in her article Understanding Adjustments to Temperature Data. The Mosh pup was there defending BEST. Curry and Mosher are defending the TOBS adjustments.
That is one adjustment I just do not ‘get’
Instructions were written and given out to the observers in 1882. There were two thermometers, one max and one min.
For the maximum thermometer they state:
“…When a maximum thermometer is not read for several hours after the highest temperature has occurred and the air in the meantime has cooled down 15° or 20°, the highest temperature indicated by the top of the detached thread of mercury may be too low by half a degree from the contraction of the thread….”
That would indicate the max thermometer should be read just after the heat of the day and any adjustment for reading at the wrong time of day should RAISE the maximum temperature not lower it!
Anthony of course had the Mosh Pup and Zeke all over him until he did a TOBS adjustment.
What is not mentioned is the original system had two separate thermometers. One mercury for the high temperature and an alcohol thermometer for the minimum temperature. No mention is made of the switch to the Six min/max thermometer
So I went hunting.
And I found this very interesting information from an old book: Meteorology: A Text-book on the Weather, the Causes of Its Changes, and Weather Forecasting
By Willis Isbister Milham 1918
The book mentions the Six thermometer and says the accuracy was not good so the US weather service used the two thermometers mentioned above instead. He also states there are 180 to 200 ‘regular’ weather stations ordinarily in the larger cities, as well as 3600 to 4000 coop stations and 300 to 500 special stations. Not exactly a shortage of weather stations. I am assuming the ‘regular stations’ are professionally operated by the US Weather Service.
A few skeptics with a vested interest in keeping this scam alive, are the biggest obstacle to getting the message out.
Sure seems that way.
I thought it quite interesting that Willis Isbister Milham was talking about 20 years of hourly data in 1918.
Another book The American Meteorological Journal, Volume 8 from 1891 also mentions the Richard Freres thermograph
Sounds like a true scientist to me. I bet he would be horrified to learn any data he collected was now subject to ‘adjustments’
Follow the money.
“Understanding Adjustments to Temperature Data”
At least that answers where one might find code for at least the PHA:
They don’t list code for the infilling algorithm, and the difference plot doesn’t look anything like those posted here (but then they don’t provide a method for deriving that).
The post on Curry’s blog was actually by Zeke Hausfather, although there’s nothing to show that Curry had a problem with it.
Thanks, I am not surprised. The post loaded on my machine barely and I couldn’t page down or up very well.
I would like to read all the comments but as slow as it was loading it would take me weeks.
You really should *read* and comprehend material (like that article, and get the author correct as well) before jumping all over it, if you want to be taken as serious and not as a ‘flake’ that is …
I don’t want to hear _any_ excuses about a s-l-o-w computer either.
Jim, what do you think of the cogent comments Gail made here regarding early 1900 methods?…”The book mentions the Six thermometer and says the accuracy was not good so the US weather service used the two thermometers mentioned above instead. He also states there are 180 to 200 ‘regular’ weather stations ordinarily in the larger cities, as well as 3600 to 4000 coop stations and 300 to 500 special stations. Not exactly a shortage of weather stations. I am assuming the ‘regular stations’ are professionally operated by the US Weather Service.
…The observations of temperature taken at a regular station are the real air temperature at 8am and 8pm, the highest and lowest temperatures of the preceding 12 hours, and a continuous thermograph record…. (Richard Freres thermograph) ….these instruments are located in a thermometer shelter which is ordinarily placed 6 to 10 feet above the roof of some high building in the city. At a Cooperative station the highest and lowest temperatures during a day are determined, and also the reading of the maximum thermometer just after it has been set. The purpose of taking this observation is to make sure that the maximum thermometer has been set and also to give the real air temperature at the time of observation….
I would take a quick wag that many of todays reading screens, taken a few feet above the surface, near a parking lot and or an airport, would tend to read warmer then a “thermometer shelter which is ordinarily placed 6 to 10 feet above the roof of some high building in the city” How long and extensive this practice was is not certain, but the potential for many “confirmation bias assumptions, for the “cause”, appears probable.
Lord Monckton has the BEST description of _Jim’s comments:
Gail ‘misconstrues’ again; she cannot separate critique and criticism from ad-homs.
_Jim, ALL I have ever seen from you though the many years is Ad Homs.
Beale made a correction and I thanked him, YOU made an ad Hom.
Gail, Thanks for your persistence of in depth investigating.
Maybe you could be an adviser to Carly F. I like her
I am also favoring Ben C and Marko R. in the Republican line up
Who says we can’t do a little politicking here!
Amazing that they can determine the past temperatures and not the present.
I don’t get the break points of the order of 1/10th of degree (C) being detected and corrected.
“If one station is warming rapidly over a period of a decade a few kilometers from a number of stations that are cooling over the same period, the warming station is likely responding to localized effects (instrument changes, station moves, microsite changes, etc.) rather than a real climate signal.”
Why is it that the pause is just a figment of my imagination?
A tenth of a degree is noise. There is nothing to correct.
Look at what Willis Isbister Milham was saying.
“the average temperature for a day is found by averaging the 24 values of hourly temperature observed during that day….”
To get the ‘normals’ for each day he uses 20 years.
If the normals are based on twenty years of observations, it will be found that there is not an even transition from day to day, but jumps of even two or three degrees occur….”
So he is saying the twenty year average based on 24 reading through the day for one day can vary by as much as three degrees from the twenty year average for the next day.
On page 68 he says a thermometer in a Stevenson screen is correct to within a half degree. It is most in error on still days, hot or cold. “In both cases the indications of the sheltered thermometers are two conservative.”
on Page 70
“The Ventilated thermometer which is the best instrument for determining the real air temperature, was invented by Assman at Berlin in 1887…will determine the real air temperature correctly to a tenth of a degree.”
The people making these measurement were real scientists and knew exactly what they were doing. They just did not have instruments that were as precise although I used to use an analytical balance built in the 1800s that was a real beauty and quite accurate. I would love to ses one of those Ventilated thermometers.
Gail says, “A tenth of a degree is noise. There is nothing to correct.”
I agree, but to an alarmist a tenth of a degree PER DECADE, is DOUBLING the surface warming trend
I was thinking more about how the 15 years after 2000 is a continuation of the 15 before.
I agree, Gail. I was referring to claims that the pause is not significant. A bigger problem than what you mentioned is blatant here in Australia. I recently noticed in BEST that a station with only one other station with hundreds of kilometres (and it was 200 km away) had a break point that was adjusted. It was missing two decades of data since the 50 and a lot of months in the years left over. As I looked at it closer, they were using the data from the neighbouring station that was used to find a break point and adjust it.
BEST went down soon after I mentioned it but Warburton Airfield (identified as Warburton Range) is the station if you want to have a look.
Thanks Robert, When people start lifting the curtain the glib explanations made by BEST and ‘I was never a skeptic Mueller’ start smelling like week old dead fish.
I have my doubts about Curry, which I mentioned here a few months ago with the usual links. I think Fence sitter best describes her — Smart Lady.
Nature continues to laugh at warmists.
The children of Israel know what snow is.
Turkish children won’t know what school is.
Snow is no more in the Northern Hemisphere.
Keep an eye on this.
Washington DC didn’t get snow but the temperature goes down to 11° F with wind gusts up to 40 mph tonight. Going to be tough on our
drunken Congress Critters when they are out tonite.
I was planning on getting a group together to golf at the course in Greenland.
Is The course open yet?
I have not seen anything on it lately
Sorry I meant Tony. My apologies.
The fussing around with basic temperature data on our little planet is hysterical. And stupid. If we humans are this incompetent and need to ‘adjust’ stuff all the time…then we are too stupid to be scientists talking about temperatures. Much less, climate.
This is all about the carbon markets. When the bankers figured out they can make money, the politicians found out they can impose punitive taxes on CO2, when both discovered this invisible gas that naturally exists could be used to INFINITY as a tax/banking-derivative machine, they openly boasted back in 2003 that this would be immensely enriching for them.
One banker even exclaimed to Bloomberg press, that it would be ‘bigger than the petroleum and gas markets!’ When referring to the derivatives trading. Then the market for selling ‘CO2 pollution rights’ collapsed. So they are now back peddling trying to revive this Emperor’s Naked Clothes scheme of theirs.
I just wish the blind follower would figure out it is not about the environment it is about the rich ripping off the poor and in some cases out right killing them as they did with the 2008 food crisis.
Zeke’s arguments on co2 residence times are also crap and worth debunking. Steve, care to thrash him around a bit on this issue?
When I pointed out that the PHA was changing historical “data” by as much as 3 degrees C (always down BTW), and that these changes were ongoing in the “daily data sets”, I was informed “it doesn’t matter, because it depends what you are using the data for”. That’s when I knew: they are aware of what’s happen, they know it’s fraud.