Fixing The Past At The Ministry Of Truth

Our friends at NCDC were unhappy that the US wasn’t warming, so sometime after 1991 they simply lobbed 0.4C off of all pre-1990 US temperatures

NCDCBaseline1990-2014

Zeke says that I can’t use absolute temperatures, to compare against NCDC’s absolute temperatures. I love working with these folks – they simply make up rules and data as convenient for the argument.

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About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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34 Responses to Fixing The Past At The Ministry Of Truth

  1. nielszoo says:

    Steven you should sponsor a contest to see who can find a current set of temperatures, supplied by a government agency or government funded university, that hasn’t been manipulated to create an historical warming trend. The winner gets a slightly used hockey stick with a bristlecone pine veneered blade and an ersatz Nobel Prize key fob.

  2. Ralph Crilly says:

    TRUTH? really? B.S.!

  3. Gail Combs says:

    Speaking of Zeke and the rest of the BEST crew, such as the Mosh pup and Judith Curry, it looks like Judith Curry did a hatchet job on Steve in her article Understanding Adjustments to Temperature Data. The Mosh pup was there defending BEST. Curry and Mosher are defending the TOBS adjustments.

    That is one adjustment I just do not ‘get’

    Instructions were written and given out to the observers in 1882. There were two thermometers, one max and one min.

    For the maximum thermometer they state:
    “…When a maximum thermometer is not read for several hours after the highest temperature has occurred and the air in the meantime has cooled down 15° or 20°, the highest temperature indicated by the top of the detached thread of mercury may be too low by half a degree from the contraction of the thread….”
    https://archive.org/stream/instructionsforv00unitrich#page/20/mode/2up

    That would indicate the max thermometer should be read just after the heat of the day and any adjustment for reading at the wrong time of day should RAISE the maximum temperature not lower it!

    Curry states:

    ……Nearly every single station in the network in the network has been moved at least once over the last century, with many having 3 or more distinct moves. Most of the stations have changed from using liquid in glass thermometers (LiG) in Stevenson screens to electronic Minimum Maximum Temperature Systems (MMTS) or Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS). Observation times have shifted from afternoon to morning at most stations since 1960, as part of an effort by the National Weather Service to improve precipitation measurements.

    All of these changes introduce (non-random) systemic biases into the network. For example, MMTS sensors tend to read maximum daily temperatures about 0.5 C colder than LiG thermometers at the same location. There is a very obvious cooling bias in the record associated with the conversion of most co-op stations from LiG to MMTS in the 1980s, and even folks deeply skeptical of the temperature network like Anthony Watts and his coauthors add an explicit correction for this in their paper…..

    Anthony of course had the Mosh Pup and Zeke all over him until he did a TOBS adjustment.

    What is not mentioned is the original system had two separate thermometers. One mercury for the high temperature and an alcohol thermometer for the minimum temperature. No mention is made of the switch to the Six min/max thermometer

    So I went hunting.

    And I found this very interesting information from an old book: Meteorology: A Text-book on the Weather, the Causes of Its Changes, and Weather Forecasting
    By Willis Isbister Milham 1918

    The book mentions the Six thermometer and says the accuracy was not good so the US weather service used the two thermometers mentioned above instead. He also states there are 180 to 200 ‘regular’ weather stations ordinarily in the larger cities, as well as 3600 to 4000 coop stations and 300 to 500 special stations. Not exactly a shortage of weather stations. I am assuming the ‘regular stations’ are professionally operated by the US Weather Service.

    …The observations of temperature taken at a regular station are the real air temperature at 8am and 8pm, the highest and lowest temperatures of the preceding 12 hours, and a continuous thermograph record…. (Richard Freres thermograph) ….these instruments are located in a thermometer shelter which is ordinarily placed 6 to 10 feet above the roof of some high building in the city. At a Cooperative station the highest and loest temperatures during a day are determined, and also the reading of the maximum thermometer just after it has been set. The purpose of taking this observation is to make sure that the maximum thermometer has been set and also to give the real air temperature at the time of observation….

    A few more snippets its:
    “If a good continuous thermograph record for at least twenty years is available, the normal hourly temperatures for the various days of the year can be computed….

    “the average temperature for a day is found by averaging the 24 values of hourly temperature observed during that day….

    If the normals are based on twenty years of observations, it will be found that there is not an even transition from day to day, but jumps of even two or three degrees occur….”

    Continue reading page 77 on….

    From all that The adjustments are looking more and more fishy especially since they are continually changing.

    • A few skeptics with a vested interest in keeping this scam alive, are the biggest obstacle to getting the message out.

      • Gail Combs says:

        Sure seems that way.

        I thought it quite interesting that Willis Isbister Milham was talking about 20 years of hourly data in 1918.

        Another book The American Meteorological Journal, Volume 8 from 1891 also mentions the Richard Freres thermograph

        An Account of the “Leste,” or hot wind of Madeira
        by H. Coupland Taylor, M. D. F. R. Met. Soc.

        ….Being an invalid, I must beg for the indulgence of the Society for the irregular times of obervation and the other defects the Fellows may discover in the following paper.

        I must first state that my instruments are placed in a regulation Stevenson screen…. The maximum and minimum thermometers are by Casella, and duly tested at Kew….I also have had in use for some months a self-registering hair hygrometer by MM. Richard Freres of Paris, and likewise a thermograph by the same makers but no very severe Leste has occurred since I had them.

        This “Leste” is a very dry and parching wind and sometimes very hot,….

        Sounds like a true scientist to me. I bet he would be horrified to learn any data he collected was now subject to ‘adjustments’

      • Don says:

        Follow the money.

    • Dave N says:

      “Understanding Adjustments to Temperature Data”

      At least that answers where one might find code for at least the PHA:

      ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v3/software/52i/

      They don’t list code for the infilling algorithm, and the difference plot doesn’t look anything like those posted here (but then they don’t provide a method for deriving that).

    • Beale says:

      The post on Curry’s blog was actually by Zeke Hausfather, although there’s nothing to show that Curry had a problem with it.

      • Gail Combs says:

        Thanks, I am not surprised. The post loaded on my machine barely and I couldn’t page down or up very well.

        I would like to read all the comments but as slow as it was loading it would take me weeks.

        • _Jim says:

          You really should *read* and comprehend material (like that article, and get the author correct as well) before jumping all over it, if you want to be taken as serious and not as a ‘flake’ that is …

          I don’t want to hear _any_ excuses about a s-l-o-w computer either.

        • Daavid A says:

          Jim, what do you think of the cogent comments Gail made here regarding early 1900 methods?…”The book mentions the Six thermometer and says the accuracy was not good so the US weather service used the two thermometers mentioned above instead. He also states there are 180 to 200 ‘regular’ weather stations ordinarily in the larger cities, as well as 3600 to 4000 coop stations and 300 to 500 special stations. Not exactly a shortage of weather stations. I am assuming the ‘regular stations’ are professionally operated by the US Weather Service.

          …The observations of temperature taken at a regular station are the real air temperature at 8am and 8pm, the highest and lowest temperatures of the preceding 12 hours, and a continuous thermograph record…. (Richard Freres thermograph) ….these instruments are located in a thermometer shelter which is ordinarily placed 6 to 10 feet above the roof of some high building in the city. At a Cooperative station the highest and lowest temperatures during a day are determined, and also the reading of the maximum thermometer just after it has been set. The purpose of taking this observation is to make sure that the maximum thermometer has been set and also to give the real air temperature at the time of observation….
          ====================================

          I would take a quick wag that many of todays reading screens, taken a few feet above the surface, near a parking lot and or an airport, would tend to read warmer then a “thermometer shelter which is ordinarily placed 6 to 10 feet above the roof of some high building in the city” How long and extensive this practice was is not certain, but the potential for many “confirmation bias assumptions, for the “cause”, appears probable.

        • Gail Combs says:

          Lord Monckton has the BEST description of _Jim’s comments:

          One need say no more about the ad-hom remarks except that they are characteristic of the climate-extremist movement; that they are one of the chief reasons why it has so abjectly lost the argument; and that they constitute a sub-species of the fundamental fallacy of logic known to the medieval schoolmen as ignoratio elenchi (ignorance of the appropriate manner of conducting an argument, in that red herrings are introduced). ~ Monckton of Brenchley September 5, 2012

        • _Jim says:

          Gail ‘misconstrues’ again; she cannot separate critique and criticism from ad-homs.

        • Gail Combs says:

          _Jim, ALL I have ever seen from you though the many years is Ad Homs.

          Beale made a correction and I thanked him, YOU made an ad Hom.

    • darrylb says:

      Gail, Thanks for your persistence of in depth investigating.
      Maybe you could be an adviser to Carly F. I like her

      I am also favoring Ben C and Marko R. in the Republican line up
      Who says we can’t do a little politicking here!

  4. philjourdan says:

    Amazing that they can determine the past temperatures and not the present.

  5. Robert B says:

    I don’t get the break points of the order of 1/10th of degree (C) being detected and corrected.

    “If one station is warming rapidly over a period of a decade a few kilometers from a number of stations that are cooling over the same period, the warming station is likely responding to localized effects (instrument changes, station moves, microsite changes, etc.) rather than a real climate signal.”

    Why is it that the pause is just a figment of my imagination?

    • Gail Combs says:

      A tenth of a degree is noise. There is nothing to correct.

      Look at what Willis Isbister Milham was saying.
      “the average temperature for a day is found by averaging the 24 values of hourly temperature observed during that day….”

      To get the ‘normals’ for each day he uses 20 years.

      If the normals are based on twenty years of observations, it will be found that there is not an even transition from day to day, but jumps of even two or three degrees occur….”
      So he is saying the twenty year average based on 24 reading through the day for one day can vary by as much as three degrees from the twenty year average for the next day.

      On page 68 he says a thermometer in a Stevenson screen is correct to within a half degree. It is most in error on still days, hot or cold. “In both cases the indications of the sheltered thermometers are two conservative.”

      on Page 70
      “The Ventilated thermometer which is the best instrument for determining the real air temperature, was invented by Assman at Berlin in 1887…will determine the real air temperature correctly to a tenth of a degree.”

      The people making these measurement were real scientists and knew exactly what they were doing. They just did not have instruments that were as precise although I used to use an analytical balance built in the 1800s that was a real beauty and quite accurate. I would love to ses one of those Ventilated thermometers.

      • Daavid A says:

        Gail says, “A tenth of a degree is noise. There is nothing to correct.”

        I agree, but to an alarmist a tenth of a degree PER DECADE, is DOUBLING the surface warming trend

      • Robert B says:

        I agree, Gail. I was referring to claims that the pause is not significant. A bigger problem than what you mentioned is blatant here in Australia. I recently noticed in BEST that a station with only one other station with hundreds of kilometres (and it was 200 km away) had a break point that was adjusted. It was missing two decades of data since the 50 and a lot of months in the years left over. As I looked at it closer, they were using the data from the neighbouring station that was used to find a break point and adjust it.

        BEST went down soon after I mentioned it but Warburton Airfield (identified as Warburton Range) is the station if you want to have a look.

        • Gail Combs says:

          Thanks Robert, When people start lifting the curtain the glib explanations made by BEST and ‘I was never a skeptic Mueller’ start smelling like week old dead fish.

          I have my doubts about Curry, which I mentioned here a few months ago with the usual links. I think Fence sitter best describes her — Smart Lady.

  6. Jimbo says:

    Nature continues to laugh at warmists.

    The children of Israel know what snow is.

    Jerusalem Post – 7 January 2015
    WATCH LIVE: Snow falls in Jerusalem as worshipers brave storm to pray at Western Wall

    Turkish children won’t know what school is.

    Daily Sabah – 6 January 2014
    Heavy snowfall closes schools in Istanbul for another day

    Snow is no more in the Northern Hemisphere.

    Latinos Post – 6 January 2014
    Middle East Snow: How Syria, Jordan & Israel Turned Into a Winter Wonderland

  7. Jimbo says:

    Keep an eye on this.

    7 January 2015
    Cold snap with snow, winds to grip Saudi today

    Freezing temperatures together with snow and winds are likely to hit the north and northwest areas of Saudi Arabia today (January 7) in a surge of cold weather which could last until Sunday, a report said.
    http://www.tradearabia.com/news/HEAL_272835.html

    =======
    7 January 2015
    Cold wave to lash KSA with snow, wind
    A wave of bitterly cold weather accompanied by wind, sub-zero temperatures and snow is expected to hit the Kingdom on Wednesday and last until Sunday, the Presidency of Meteorology and Environmental Protection (PME) said on Monday.

    The extreme cold is forecast strike the north and northwest areas of the Kingdom as a result of storms coming from Europe and America. The inclement weather is expected to move across the entire country.
    http://www.arabnews.com/featured/news/685266

  8. Jimbo says:

    Weather Channel – Jan 6 2015
    Winter Storm Gorgon Recap: 2,000-Mile Swath of Snow from Cascades to Jersey Shore
    Winter Storm Gorgon raced across the country at near-freeway speeds, bringing a swath of snow more than 2,000 miles long from Washington state to New Jersey in barely 48 hours.
    http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-gorgon-snowstorm-clipper-wind-chill

    • Gail Combs says:

      Washington DC didn’t get snow but the temperature goes down to 11° F with wind gusts up to 40 mph tonight. Going to be tough on our drunken Congress Critters when they are out tonite.

  9. Edmonton Al says:

    Steve/Ray
    I was planning on getting a group together to golf at the course in Greenland.
    Is The course open yet?
    I have not seen anything on it lately
    ;^D

  10. Edmonton Al says:

    Sorry I meant Tony. My apologies.

  11. emsnews says:

    The fussing around with basic temperature data on our little planet is hysterical. And stupid. If we humans are this incompetent and need to ‘adjust’ stuff all the time…then we are too stupid to be scientists talking about temperatures. Much less, climate.

    This is all about the carbon markets. When the bankers figured out they can make money, the politicians found out they can impose punitive taxes on CO2, when both discovered this invisible gas that naturally exists could be used to INFINITY as a tax/banking-derivative machine, they openly boasted back in 2003 that this would be immensely enriching for them.

    One banker even exclaimed to Bloomberg press, that it would be ‘bigger than the petroleum and gas markets!’ When referring to the derivatives trading. Then the market for selling ‘CO2 pollution rights’ collapsed. So they are now back peddling trying to revive this Emperor’s Naked Clothes scheme of theirs.

  12. Dr. Shoosh Mondoogan says:

    Zeke’s arguments on co2 residence times are also crap and worth debunking. Steve, care to thrash him around a bit on this issue?

  13. Dougmanxx says:

    When I pointed out that the PHA was changing historical “data” by as much as 3 degrees C (always down BTW), and that these changes were ongoing in the “daily data sets”, I was informed “it doesn’t matter, because it depends what you are using the data for”. That’s when I knew: they are aware of what’s happen, they know it’s fraud.

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