Gavin Says The Pause Which He Didn’t Predict And Doesn’t Exist, May Continue For 10 More Years

ScreenHunter_6240 Jan. 19 21.00

Pause Over Within 10 Years Says NASA’s Schmidt

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59 Responses to Gavin Says The Pause Which He Didn’t Predict And Doesn’t Exist, May Continue For 10 More Years

  1. Gail Combs says:

    He is really praying for an upswing in the PDO. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation turned cool in 2000 and therefore should go warm some time around 2030 or so.

    • omanuel says:

      Gavin and other scientists on the federal payroll deserve our compassion.

      It is not unusual talents that lead to prostitution.

      See: The Great Social Experiment

      Click to access Social_Experiment.pdf

    • ren says:

      At a height 27 km is very noticeable shift of the polar vortex. Arctic air will continue to attack the US.
      http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-100.17,82.25,344

      • rah says:

        ren

        I remember a time when we used to call it “winter” and it was what it was without the characterization of an “attack” or “assault” or any such thing. It was a time when adults expected the worst and hoped for the best and children always hoped for the worst. But someone was always thankful no matter how it turned out.

        Kids would be thankful for the “snow days” when they got off school because of the weather and being able to play in the snow even if their parents weren’t at times. But even many of us sappier grown ups were/are happy when we had/have a white Christmas. But all in all, having a warmer than normal winter was perceived by most adults as a good thing.

        I pity those that never had some of those experiences as a child. Never made snow forts and lined up in opposing armies, each side using it’s fort as a base and had massive snow ball fights. Or never tunneled in the snow drift making all kinds of rooms and chambers and then trudged off to the best hill around to sled.

        Then coming home with cold and toes and fingers stinging as they warmed and Mom who dutifully had a big pot of hot cocoa on the stove and helped us strip out of our snow laden outer garments. How good that all felt; the warmth, the relaxed state of exhaustion, and feeling of security and being just as happy to be warm as one was excited when they left to go play in the snow.

  2. Time will tell.
    Today was very pleasant sw BC.
    I’m hoping for an early warm spring.

  3. gofer says:

    “A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.” – Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat (1915-2002)

  4. He says the pause is caused by increased volcano activity and decreased solar output.

    1. I don’t have a time chart of volcanic activity, but I assume he is lying.
    2. Here is a time chart of solar output. He’s lying.

    • Andy Oz says:

      +1
      He is paid by the government (and the American Taxpayer) to lie.

    • Anything is possible says:

      1. I don’t have a time chart of volcanic activity, but I assume he is lying.

      ================================

      You assume correctly :

    • Philipoftaos says:

      In short whether it was Solar irradiance, volcanoes, or oceans absorbing the heat Schmidt just admitted that CO2 is not the climate driver they Modeled it to be. After 19 years of warming we are going to have 30 years of cooling. After 50 plus excuses for the pause shouldn’t they admit they don’t actually have a clue.

      • Daavid A says:

        …”After 50 plus excuses for the pause shouldn’t they admit they don’t actually have a clue”
        ————————————————————————————–
        Sounds like 50 reasons that CO2 is not the driver of climate, Climate Scientist are a strange group, they can only think of one reason the world warms, but 50 reasons it does not.

        The Minnesota boys should do song on the 50 ways to leave CO2, sung of course to the tune of “fifty ways to leave your lover,”

        • Anthony Scalzi says:

          As much as I like Paul Simon, I think 50 ways to say goodbye offers slightly better parodic material, especially with the cheesy music video for it:

    • ren says:

      Controller is to change the position of the Earth’s axis relative to the sun. It depends on the motion of the Sun relative to the center of mass of the solar system.
      Kontroller also magnetic activity of the sun, which controls the length of the day and the chemical changes in the stratosphere. Low solar activity has an effect on the increase in seismic activity.

    • Edmonton Al says:

      The Weather Network here in Canada had him on telling his lies.
      Gotta get Obama’s thermageddon scare as far as possible.

    • DHF says:

      I am quite impressed that they managed to measure solar irradiance so precisely several centuries ago. Wonder how it was done?

  5. Andy Oz says:

    Unlike Gavin’s “Pause”, Tim Flannery’s “drought pause” will end some time in the future, when Australia does finally have an El Nino drought once again. This year is looking very normal. Its been 30 years since we had a severe El Nino.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=totals&period=cyear&area=nat

  6. Rud Istvan says:

    Like Hansen, he will be retired before his prognostication comes due. BS.

    • Jimmy Haigh says:

      Yes. I was going to say: …by which time our Gavin will have retired and be living of a nice pension. Thank you very much.

  7. I say the pause in his lying which I didn’t predict and which doesn’t exist, my continue till tomorrow morning.

  8. Given his general failure to understand the natural forces he attributes the failure to warm to, why should anyone believe he understands the effects of CO2? The implication is that complex physics operating in the complex environment of the Earth is too much for Gavin Schmidt and his fellow government bureaucrats to understand. Although some of the quiet weapons radiation physicists who work for the Navy and Army do manage to understand that the physics claimed to be behind significant global warming due to CO2 is bogus, though they fear for their careers if they speak up.

    • Robert B says:

      He understands well enough. If there is a 60 year period, the minimum will be in 2020 and the adjusting will end the pause early. Nothing to do with volcanoes and he knows it.

  9. gymnosperm says:

    And he bases this prediction on what? That natural cooling will be “overwhelmed” by the very same human CO2 that has done en absoluto nada for the last human generation? The very same CO2 whose bands he agrees are 50% saturated and which he knows perfectly well faces an approximately logarithmic diminution in effect with increased concentration?

    Brown nosing, plain and simple.

  10. sabretoothed says:

    Which volcanoes? LOL

    Nothing big has erupted really, why did it cool in the 1970s? Volcanoes? There were only 2 big eruptions in the 1900s.

  11. sabretoothed says:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo Was 1991

    http://carbon-budget.geologist-1011.net/ Volcanoes don’t make CO2 either according to the “Experts” who checked a few LOL

    • Gail Combs says:

      What a crock of bovine feces

      Average Compositions and Trace Gases

      Most Common Gases

      Water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are the most common volcanic gases.

      Other Gases

      In lesser amounts, volcanoes release carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen sulfide (H2S), carbonyl sulfide (COS), carbon disulfide (CS2), hydrogen chloride (HCl), hydrogen (H2), methane (CH4), hydrogen flouride (HF), boron, hydrogen bromine (HBr), mercury (Hg) vapor, organic compounds, even gold. From Cadle (1980).

      Mercury is released by most volcanoes and has been measured at Kilauea, Mauna Loa, Hekla, Erebus, at Mount St. Helens (Siegel and Siegel, 1987). Kilauea produces about 270 tons of mercury each year and has been identified as the source for mercury on Oahu, 320 km away.

      Condensates, sublimates, and incrustations were studied at Merapi volcano by Symonds and others (1987). The following elements were found:
      Se, Re, Bi, and Cd at concentrations 100,000 that in the magma;
      Au, Br, In, Pb, and W at concentrations 100,000 to 10,000 that in the magma;
      Mo, Cl, Cs, S, Sn, and Ag at concentrations 10,000 to 1,000 that in the magma;
      As, Zn, F, and Rb at concentrations 1,000 to 100 that in the magma;
      Cu, K, Na, Sb, Ni, Ga, V, Fe, Mn, and Li at concentrations 100 to 1 that in the magma.

      Gold has condensed from volcanic gases. Meeker and others (1991) reported gold at Mount Erebus, Antarctica. They found gold in the plume near the crater, in the air up to 1000 km from the volcano and in near surface samples.

      Most of these gases originate in the mantle and are transported to the crust and surface by complex interactions with magma and rocks encountered along the way. In general, the gases are dissolved in the magma. At shallow depths, as pressure on the magma decreases, the gases leave the magma (exsolve). The gases can interact with surrounding rocks or continue to the surface.,,,
      http://volcano.oregonstate.edu/book/export/html/151

      Article has a lot more information

  12. omanuel says:

    Regretfully federal employees, university professors and almost everyone else have been under pressure to support the “Great Social Experiment” that began on 24 OCT 1945 and quietly ended this month when the United Nations, leaders of nations, and armies of government-funded consensus scientists were unable or unwilling to reply to nine pages of precise experimental data [1] that falsify the UN’s Agenda 21-driven [2] Standard Solar Model, Standard Nuclear Model, Big Bang Cosmology and Standard Climate Models. The data [1] confirm many ancient teachings but regretfully the great social experiment continued until world-wide violation of the scientific method to fit UN’s Agenda 21 [2] was exposed [1].

    I plan to post a one-page summary on “Great Social Experiment” later today.

    References

    1. “Solar energy,” Advances in Astronomy (submitted for on-line review, 6 JAN 2015): https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Solar_Energy_For_Review.pdf

    2. “United Nations Agenda 21” (1972): http://habitat.igc.org/agenda21/index.htm
    The scientific method was altered to fit the Science & Technology Agenda in Chapter 31.

  13. SMS says:

    Lets say the pause continues for another ten years and each consecutive year is “the hottest year evah!” Oxymoron? Just say’in but I think Gavin just stepped on his dick.

  14. Direct sea level measurements are often ambiguous, are prone to bias and do not, in themselves, cater for the effects of tectonics and isostatic rebound from melted ice caps.
    So, if the raw data does not give what one wants, make a guestimate of contributions from melted ice and add that in to give the result that one wants.
    Scientific methodology out of the window yet again.

    • Gail Combs says:

      Sea level is another area where the ClimAstrologists KNOWINGLY LIE.

      What is mind boggling is the Climastrologists with degrees in Geology, Hydrology and Earth Science completely ignore the fact that the Modern Warm Period is colder than other periods during the Holocene, that glaciers are growing and the sea level is dropping. Instead they cherry pick a short term change in the weather and call it ‘CLIMATE’!

      Mid to late Holocene sea-level reconstruction of Southeast Vietnam using beachrock and beach-ridge deposits

      ….backshore deposits along the tectonically stable south-eastern Vietnamese coast document Holocene sea level changes…..reconstructed for the last 8000 years….The rates of sea-level rise decreased sharply after the rapid early Holocene rise and stabilized at a rate of 4.5 mm/year between 8.0 and 6.9 ka. Southeast Vietnam beachrocks reveal that the mid-Holocene sea-level highstand slightly above + 1.4 m was reached between 6.7 and 5.0 ka, with a peak value close to + 1.5 m around 6.0 ka….

      Translation the sea level was up to 1.5 meters higher than today in a tectonically stable area ~5000 years ago to 2000 years ago.

      Sea-level highstand recorded in Holocene shoreline deposits on Oahu, Hawaii

      Unconsolidated carbonate sands and cobbles on Kapapa Island, windward Oahu, are 1.4-2.8 (+ or – 0.25) m above present mean sea level (msl)…we interpret the deposit to be a fossil beach or shoreline representing a highstand of relative sea level during middle to late Holocene time. Calibrated radiocarbon dates of coral and mollusc samples, and a consideration of the effect of wave energy setup, indicate that paleo-msl was at least 1.6 (+ or – 0.45) m above present msl prior to 3889-3665 cal. yr B.P, possibly as early as 5532-5294 cal. yr B.P., and lasted until at least 2239-1940 cal. yr B.P

      This study shows a sea level highstand ~1.6 meter above the present level from ~5500 years ago to 2000 years ago.

      Verification by another method:
      Sea Level Changes Past Records and Future Expectations

      For the last 40-50 years strong observational facts indicate virtually stable sea level conditions. The Earth’s rate of rotation records an [average] acceleration from 1972 to 2012, contradicting all claims of a rapid global sea level rise, and instead suggests stable, to slightly falling, sea levels.

    • Gail Combs says:

      There are also studies showing the temperatures were higher and the glaciers smaller verifying the above sea level data,

      A new approach for reconstructing glacier variability based on lake sediments recording input from more than one glacier January 2012
      Kristian Vasskoga Øyvind Paaschec, Atle Nesjea, John F. Boyled, H.J.B. Birks

      …. A multi-proxy numerical analysis demonstrates that it is possible to distinguish a glacier component in the ~ 8000-yr-long record, based on distinct changes in grain size, geochemistry, and magnetic composition…. This signal is …independently tested through a mineral magnetic provenance analysis of catchment samples. Minimum glacier input is indicated between 6700–5700 cal yr BP, probably reflecting a situation when most glaciers in the catchment had melted away, whereas the highest glacier activity is observed around 600 and 200 cal yr BP. During the local Neoglacial interval (~ 4200 cal yr BP until present), five individual periods of significantly reduced glacier extent are identified at ~ 3400, 3000–2700, 2100–2000, 1700–1500, and ~ 900 cal yr BP….

      Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic
      Miller et al
      Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research and Department of Geological Sciences, University of Colorado, USA et al

      …. Solar energy reached a summer maximum (9% higher than at present) ~11 ka ago and has been decreasing since then, primarily in response to the precession of the equinoxes. The extra energy elevated early Holocene summer temperatures throughout the Arctic 1-3°C above 20th century averages, enough to completely melt many small glaciers throughout the Arctic, although the Greenland Ice Sheet was only slightly smaller than at present. Early Holocene summer sea ice limits were substantially smaller than their 20th century average, and the flow of Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean was substantially greater. As summer solar energy decreased in the second half of the Holocene, glaciers re-established or advanced, sea ice expanded…

      Ice free Arctic Ocean, an Early Holocene analogue

      Abstract
      Extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coasts show that these areas once saw seasonally open water. In addition to beach ridges, large amounts of striated boulders in and on the marine sediments from the same period also indicate that the ocean was open enough for ice bergs to drift along the shore and drop their loads. Presently the North Greenland coastline is permanently beleaguered by pack ice, and ice bergs are very rare and locked up in the sea ice. Predictions of the rapidly decreasing sea ice in the Arctic Ocean generally point to this area as the last to become ice free in summer. We therefore suggest that the occurrence of wave generated shores and abundant ice berg dropped boulders indicate that the Arctic Ocean was nearly free of sea ice in the summer at the time when they were formed. The beach ridges occur as isostatically raised “staircases”, and C14-dated curves for relative sea level change show that they were formed in the Early Holocene. A large set of samples of molluscs from beach ridges and marine sediments were collected in the summer of 2007, and are presently being dated to give a precise dating of the ice free interval. Preliminary results indicate that it fell within the interval from c. 8.5 to c. 6 ka – being progressively shorter from south to north. We therefore conclude that for a priod in the Early Holocene, probably for a millenium or more, the Arctic Ocean was free of sea ice at least for shorter periods in the summer….

  15. Through all of recorded history, by which I mean since 1979, Warmists’ predictions (which usually they eventually deny were actually predictions) have been forecasts of events certain to happen many years, or even decades, in the future; by the time that future becomes the present, or even the past, all the ace reporters and crack pundits in mainstream media have (1) forgotten about them and (2) forgotten how to use that… whatsitcalled?… Google thingamajig. Odd how that works out, eh?

  16. stephen says:

    Its a bit like he thinks volcano,s and the sun are going away , as far as I am aware they have been doing there thing for ever.

  17. _Jim says:

    No ‘sanity checks’ in this procedure or process (e.g. design rules, cross validation checks etc.) of Gavin’s; open-loop behavior and ‘processes’ at their finest …

  18. Scarface says:

    Brilliant, how one can make the only relevant climate driver (cf. Concensus science) subordinate to natural variability without blinking and keep looking like an expert. And keep laughing all the way to the bank.

    Silence! Climate criminals at work.

  19. sabretoothed says:

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/19/bigger-problems-than-global-warming-nasa-discovers-8-new-dangerous-near-earth-asteroids/

    NASA spends like $10million on this and $20billion on global warming that only exists on their computer screens and not in real life

  20. AndyG55 says:

    Hey Gavin, dude….

    Are you sure you don’t want to push that out a bit further……. say 50-60 years?

    There might just be some real warming again by then, if we are lucky !!

  21. AndyG55 says:

    I wonder if Gavin told those journalists to finish their coffee first !

    Keyboards don’t grow in tree, y’know !!

  22. Andy Oz says:

    NSIDC says that NASA satellites show the Arctic heating and melting out of control and absorbing an additional 20 Watts per Square Metre (on average). At solar radiation of 1360 Watts per Square Metre, I calculate that means that the Arctic is absorbing <2% of the suns energy that it is exposed to. And it doesn't re-radiate it away in the 6 months of sunless winter?

    Exactly what planet are the guys from NSIDC on? As Spock said – "Its just not logical".

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/climatechange/arctic-absorbing-more-of-the-s/40250920

  23. Robertv says:

    End the pause in Global Warming.

  24. Stephen Richards says:

    It’s a great skill y’know: Lying throught your teeth without cracking a smile. Must be a british thing.

  25. Gail Combs says:

    Gavin is a smart, slick spinmeister. He is most certainly pinning hopes on changes in the ocean oscillations, an area he has researched.

    Blurbs From Wiki (rearranged a bit )

    Gavin Schmidt
    Education —- BA (Oxon); PhD (London), both in mathematics
    Alma mater —- Jesus College, Oxford University College London.

    ….He has worked on the variability of the ocean circulation and climate, using general circulation models (GCMs). He has also worked on ways to reconcile paleo-data with models. He helped develop the GISS ocean and coupled GCMs …. His main research interest is climate variability, both its internal and the response to climate forcing, investigated via ocean-atmosphere general circulation models…. He also uses these to study palaeoclimate by working on methods to compare palaeo-data with model output….

    ….In October 2011, the American Geophysical Union announced that Schmidt was to be awarded its inaugural Climate Communications Prize for his work on communicating climate-change issues to the public. The award is to be presented at the AGU’s Fall Meeting in December. The award news release noted his outreach work including co-founding and contributing to the RealClimate blog….. Participants on the website state that all posts on the site are internally peer reviewed. ….Schmidt was also praised for making numerous appearances as a commentator on TV and radio, and in magazine and newspaper articles, giving a scientist’s perspective on the study of climate and on climate issues….

    …During the 2009-2010 Climatic Research Unit email controversy he strongly defended the scientists involved, including Michael E. Mann and Phil Jones. Journalist Fred Pearce notes that in a post on the blog, Schmidt wrote that the emails merely showed how scientists interact in private….

    Anyone following the climate debates knows the climate models flunked big time in the IPCC fifth Assessment Draft.
    January 9, 2014 The IPCC discards its models by Anthony Watts

    Everybody knew the draft SPM was an embarrassment – the climate sensitivity range was far too high, the models were plainly wrong and the temperature ‘hiatus’ was left unexplained.

    The IPCC had only three options – (i) re-run the models and re-draft the whole report, (ii) issue a string of caveats, or (iii) simply bluster on.

    Pat Michaels and Chip Knappenburger ran a similar piece[1] with three similar options. They predicted the IPCC would “do nothing and mislead policymakers and the rest of the world”.

    After four days of intense debate and frantic wordsmithing amongst the Government representatives gathered at Stockholm, Thomas Stocker announced the final decisions at a media conference. There was no apparent backdown from the modeled temperature projections and no offer to re-run the models – just an assertion of increased certainty….

    A wee bit late, Gavin, KNOWING the IPCC models flunk the match to reality test does damage control:
    New York Times Article May 22, 2014 4:27 pm Gavin Schmidt on Why Climate Models are Wrong, and Valuable By Andrew C. Revkin

    Models are not right or wrong; they’re always wrong. They’re always approximations. The question you have to ask is whether a model tells you more information than you would have had otherwise. If it does, it’s skillfull….

    [The Red Herring using the skill in paleo and other modeling to claim ClimAstrology modeling is ‘skillful’]
    I could go through a dozen…examples: the skill associated with solar cycles, changing the ozone in the stratosphere; the skill associated with orbital changes over 6,000 years. We can look at that too, and the models are skillful. The models are skillful in response to the ice sheets 20,000 years ago. The models are skillful when it comes to the 20th-century trends over the decades. Models are successful at modeling lake outbursts into the North Atlantic 8,000 years ago. And we can get a good match to the data….

    [More red herring esp. since we know know the adjustments were matched to the rise in CO2]
    …We know what happened over the 20th century. Right? We know that it’s gotten warmer. We know where it’s gotten warmer. And if you ask the models why did that happen, and you say, okay, well, yes, basically it’s because of the carbon dioxide we put into the atmosphere. We have a very good match up until the present day.

    [And finally the money quote that Revkin repeats in large bold letters]
    But there’s one key reason why we look at models, and that’s because of this phrase here. Because if we had observations of the future, we obviously would trust them more than models, But unfortunately, observations of the future are not available at this time.…..

    My goodness the guy is a real slimeball and so is Revkin.

    • Daavid A says:

      Indeed, I had not seen this…Models are not right or wrong; they’re always wrong. They’re always approximations. The question you have to ask is whether a model tells you more information than you would have had otherwise. If it does, it’s skillful…”
      ===========================================================
      So the models skillfully inform us that they, in their consistently wrong overestimation of warming, demonstrate that CO2 is not the driver of climate they thought it was.

      “Skillful”, what an arse. Climate scientist, refusing to be informed by their ignorance.

  26. Anto says:

    Lying bastard. Only a few days ago, he was saying that there was no pause and 2014 was the hottest year ever.

  27. cheshirered says:

    They’re all over the place. Deliberately use pejorative ‘hottest’ year to secure screaming headlines, followed by deafening silence once caught out. No apology or explanation issued. 😦

  28. philjourdan says:

    So Gavin has decided upon terrestrial phrenology as the cause for the pause. I wonder if that excuse will last the 10 years as well.

  29. Crashx says:

    Translation of Gavin’s statement:

    “We have run out the clock on the last set of near term crisis announcements needed to instill an emotional component to our climate based political propaganda. The recent run has worked fine, we’ve made a lot of money and convinced millions of children of the man-made climate crisis connection. But, as it were, the actual climate has not cooperated. The actual climate data is showing our models to be bogus and we haven’t had enough big storms to maintain the level of fear we need for mass political support. So, we have to adjust our message–move the goal posts a bit. I’m thinking 10 years should work. Long enough to get that big hurricane we have all been waiting for to catalyze our message. Frankly, we just need to hold on for a couple more years to give Obama the climate science cover he needs for the policy mandates to step toward more government control. Besides, I’m looking to retire in 8 years.”

  30. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    NASA GIS is now predicting future volcanic activity!!!! LOL!
    They are also predicting future solar activity!!! LOL!!!!!

  31. emsnews says:

    Actually, solar astronomers like my father have begun to predict that sun spot activity will now decline into a new Maunder minimum. This means another Little Ice Age.

  32. peter9381 says:

    The link “Pause over within 10 years says NASA’s Schmidt” goes to some old archive site and I couldn’t find any reference to the story

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