It Is Not The TOBS, Stupid

The standard excuse for tampering with US data is that people used be incredibly stupid and reset their min/max thermometers only once during the heat of the day – causing double counting of hot afternoons.

It is easy enough to test that theory out. I generated the data for all of the HCN stations which reset their thermometers at morning or night during July, 1936.  Thus these stations would tend to be biased cold in the 1930’s.  The graph below shows that data, and guess what – nothing changed. The 1930’s and 1950’s were much hotter than the present.

ScreenHunter_6638 Feb. 01 09.02

Below is the list of stations:

FAIRHOPE 2 NE       	AL	USC00012813
AJO                 	AZ	USC00020080
CHILDS              	AZ	USC00021614
FT VALLEY           	AZ	USC00023160
GRAND CANYON NP 2   	AZ	USC00023596
LEES FERRY          	AZ	USC00024849
MIAMI               	AZ	USC00025512
PARKER              	AZ	USC00026250
PRESCOTT            	AZ	USC00026796
ROOSEVELT 1 WNW     	AZ	USC00027281
SACATON             	AZ	USC00027370
SAFFORD AGRICULTRL C	AZ	USC00027390
SAINT JOHNS         	AZ	USC00027435
TUCSON WFO          	AZ	USC00028815
WICKENBURG          	AZ	USC00029287
WILLIAMS            	AZ	USC00029359
YUMA CITRUS STN     	AZ	USC00029652
GRAVETTE            	AR	USC00032930
BERKELEY            	CA	USC00040693
BLYTHE              	CA	USC00040924
CEDARVILLE          	CA	USC00041614
CHULA VISTA         	CA	USC00041758
CUYAMACA            	CA	USC00042239
DAVIS 2 WSW EXP FARM	CA	USC00042294
FAIRMONT            	CA	USC00042941
FARMVILLE 2 N       	VA	USC00442941
HANFORD 1 S         	CA	USC00043747
HEALDSBURG          	CA	USC00043875
INDEPENDENCE        	CA	USC00044232
LODI                	CA	USC00045032
MERCED              	CA	USC00045532
NEWPORT BEACH HARBOR	CA	USC00046175
ORLAND              	CA	USC00046506
ORLEANS             	CA	USC00046508
PASO ROBLES         	CA	USC00046730
QUINCY              	CA	USC00047195
SAN LUIS OBISPO POLY	CA	USC00047851
SUSANVILLE 2SW      	CA	USC00048702
TAHOE CITY          	CA	USC00048758
TEJON RANCHO        	CA	USC00048839
TUSTIN IRVINE RCH   	CA	USC00049087
WILLOWS 6 W         	CA	USC00049699
YREKA               	CA	USC00049866
FT COLLINS          	CO	USC00053005
FT MORGAN           	CO	USC00053038
TRINIDAD            	CO	USC00058429
MILFORD 2 SE        	DE	USC00075915
APALACHICOLA  AIRPOR	FL	USC00080211
BARTOW              	FL	USC00080478
BELLE GLADE         	FL	USC00080611
FT LAUDERDALE       	FL	USC00083163
FT PIERCE           	FL	USC00083207
LAKE CITY 2 E       	FL	USC00084731
OCALA               	FL	USC00086414
PERRINE 4W          	FL	USC00087020
TARPON SPGS SEWAGE P	FL	USC00088824
BAINBRIDGE INTL PAPE	GA	USC00090586
EASTMAN 1 W         	GA	USC00092966
GLENNVILLE 3NW      	GA	USC00093754
HAWKINSVILLE        	GA	USC00094170
MILLEDGEVILLE       	GA	USC00095874
NEWNAN 5N           	GA	USC00096335
QUITMAN 2 NW        	GA	USC00097276
TIFTON              	GA	USC00098703
WEST POINT          	GA	USC00099291
ARROWROCK DAM       	ID	USC00100448
CAMBRIDGE           	ID	USC00101408
DWORSHAK FISH HATCH 	ID	USC00102845
FENN RS             	ID	USC00103143
HOLLISTER           	ID	USC00104295
KELLOGG             	ID	USC00104831
OAKLEY              	ID	USC00106542
PAYETTE             	ID	USC00106891
SALMON-KSRA         	ID	USC00108080
MCLEANSBORO         	IL	USC00115515
WALNUT              	IL	USC00118916
DELPHI 2 N          	IN	USC00122149
PAOLI               	IN	USC00126705
SALEM               	IN	USC00127755
SHOALS 8 S          	IN	USC00128036
CHARLES CITY        	IA	USC00131402
FOREST CITY 2 NNE   	IA	USC00132977
COLUMBUS            	KS	USC00141740
INDEPENDENCE        	KS	USC00143954
SAINT FRANCIS       	KS	USC00147093
WAKEENEY            	KS	USC00148495
FRANKFORT DOWNTOWN  	KY	USC00153028
ALEXANDRIA          	LA	USC00160098
BASTROP             	LA	USC00160537
PLAIN DEALING 4 W   	LA	USC00167344
EASTPORT            	ME	USC00172426
LEWISTON            	ME	USC00174566
WOODLAND            	ME	USC00179891
CUMBERLAND 2        	MD	USC00182282
MILLINGTON 1 SE     	MD	USC00185985
PRINCESS ANNE       	MD	USC00187330
AMHERST             	MA	USC00190120
BEDFORD             	MA	USC00190535
GREAT BARRINGTON 2N 	MA	USC00193213
LAWRENCE            	MA	USC00194105
PLYMOUTH-KINGSTON   	MA	USC00196486
ALLEGAN 5NE         	MI	USC00200128
FAYETTE 4 SW        	MI	USC00202737
MIDLAND             	MI	USC00205434
CHASKA              	MN	USC00211465
DETROIT LAKES 1 NNE 	MN	USC00212142
MORRIS WC EXP STN   	MN	USC00215638
NEW ULM 2 SE        	MN	USC00215887
PIPESTONE           	MN	USC00216565
CANTON 4N           	MS	USC00221389
GREENVILLE          	MS	USC00223605
KOSCIUSKO           	MS	USC00224776
NATCHEZ             	MS	USC00226177
PONTOTOC EXP STN    	MS	USC00227111
STATE UNIV          	MS	USC00228374
APPLETON CITY       	MO	USC00230204
CLINTON             	MO	USC00231711
FARMINGTON          	MO	USC00232809
JEFFERSON CITY WTP  	MO	USC00234271
LAMAR 2W            	MO	USC00234705
LEBANON 2W          	MO	USC00234825
LEES SUMMIT REED WR 	MO	USC00234850
LEXINGTON 3E        	MO	USC00234904
MEXICO              	MO	USC00235541
MOBERLY             	MO	USC00235671
MTN GROVE 2 N       	MO	USC00235834
SPICKARD 7 W        	MO	USC00237963
UNIONVILLE          	MO	USC00238523
ANACONDA            	MT	USC00240199
CHINOOK             	MT	USC00241722
FORKS 4 NNE         	MT	USC00243089
FT ASSINNIBOINE     	MT	USC00243110
FORTINE 1 N         	MT	USC00243139
HUNTLEY EXP STN     	MT	USC00244345
KALISPELL GLACIER AP	MT	USC00244558
MOCCASIN EXP STN    	MT	USC00245761
PLEVNA              	MT	USC00246601
ALLIANCE 1WNW       	NE	USC00250130
ATKINSON 3SW        	NE	USC00250420
BEATRICE 1N         	NE	USC00250622
BROKEN BOW 2 W      	NE	USC00251200
CRETE               	NE	USC00252020
FAIRBURY 5S         	NE	USC00252820
FAIRMONT            	NE	USC00252840
FRANKLIN            	NE	USC00253035
IMPERIAL            	NE	USC00254110
LODGEPOLE           	NE	USC00254900
NORTH LOUP          	NE	USC00256040
OAKDALE             	NE	USC00256135
PURDUM              	NE	USC00256970
WEEPING WATER       	NE	USC00259090
AUSTIN #2           	NV	USC00260507
FALLON EXP STN      	NV	USC00262780
MCGILL              	NV	USC00264950
MINA                	NV	USC00265168
WELLS               	NV	USC00268988
BOONTON 1 SE        	NJ	USC00280907
INDIAN MILLS 2 W    	NJ	USC00284229
MOORESTOWN          	NJ	USC00285728
FT SUMNER           	NM	USC00293294
LAS VEGAS WWTP      	NM	USC00294862
MTN PARK            	NM	USC00295960
TUCUMCARI 4 NE      	NM	USC00299156
TULAROSA            	NM	USC00299165
BATAVIA             	NY	USC00300443
ELMIRA              	NY	USC00302610
GLENHAM             	NY	USC00303259
INDIAN LAKE 2SW     	NY	USC00304102
ITHACA CORNELL UNIV 	NY	USC00304174
LAKE PLACID 2 S     	NY	USC00304555
LOWVILLE            	NY	USC00304912
OSWEGO EAST         	NY	USC00306314
SETAUKET STRONG     	NY	USC00307633
STILLWATER RSVR     	NY	USC00308248
TROY L D            	NY	USC00308600
TUPPER LAKE SUNMOUNT	NY	USC00308631
WALDEN 1 ESE        	NY	USC00308906
WALES               	NY	USC00308910
WEST POINT          	NY	USC00309292
YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W 	NY	USC00309670
ALBEMARLE           	NC	USC00310090
ELIZABETH CITY      	NC	USC00312719
KINSTON 7 SE        	NC	USC00314684
SMITHFIELD          	NC	USC00317994
TARBORO 1 S         	NC	USC00318500
WAYNESVILLE 1 E     	NC	USC00319147
BOTTINEAU           	ND	USC00320941
CROSBY              	ND	USC00321871
DICKINSON EXP STN   	ND	USC00322188
DUNN CENTER  1E     	ND	USC00322365
FT YATES 4 SW       	ND	USC00323207
FULLERTON 1 ESE     	ND	USC00323287
JAMESTOWN STATE HOSP	ND	USC00324418
LANGDON EXP FARM    	ND	USC00324958
LISBON              	ND	USC00325220
MANDAN EXP STN      	ND	USC00325479
NAPOLEON            	ND	USC00326255
NEW ENGLAND         	ND	USC00326315
RICHARDTON ABBEY    	ND	USC00327530
FINDLAY WPCC        	OH	USC00332791
HILLSBORO           	OH	USC00333758
BEND                	OR	USC00350694
BROOKINGS 2 SE      	OR	USC00351055
CONDON              	OR	USC00351765
FREMONT 5 NW        	OR	USC00353095
HEPPNER             	OR	USC00353827
MC MINNVILLE        	OR	USC00355384
PILOT ROCK 1 SE     	OR	USC00356634
ROSEBURG KQEN       	OR	USC00357331
TILLAMOOK           	OR	USC00358494
VALE                	OR	USC00358797
FRANKLIN            	PA	USC00363028
NEW CASTLE 1 N      	PA	USC00366233
PALMERTON           	PA	USC00366689
READING 4 NNW       	PA	USC00367322
RIDGWAY             	PA	USC00367477
STROUDSBURG         	PA	USC00368596
ANDERSON            	SC	USC00380165
CHERAW              	SC	USC00381588
COLUMBIA UNIV OF SC 	SC	USC00381944
CONWAY              	SC	USC00381997
DARLINGTON          	SC	USC00382260
GREENWOOD           	SC	USC00383754
KINGSTREE           	SC	USC00384753
ORANGEBURG 2        	SC	USC00386527
SUMMERVILLE 4W      	SC	USC00388426
YEMASSEE            	SC	USC00389469
DUPREE              	SD	USC00392429
FAULKTON 1 NW       	SD	USC00392927
FORESTBURG 4 NNE    	SD	USC00393029
GANN VALLEY 4NW     	SD	USC00393217
MILBANK 4 NW        	SD	USC00395536
OAHE DAM            	SD	USC00396170
RAPID CITY 4NW      	SD	USC00396947
COPPERHILL          	TN	USC00402024
CROSSVILLE ED   RESE	TN	USC00402202
DOVER 1 W           	TN	USC00402589
MURFREESBORO 5 N    	TN	USC00406371
NEWPORT 1 NW        	TN	USC00406534
UNION CITY          	TN	USC00409219
ALBANY              	TX	USC00410120
ALICE               	TX	USC00410144
ALPINE              	TX	USC00410174
BALLINGER 2 NW      	TX	USC00410493
BALMORHEA           	TX	USC00410498
BLANCO              	TX	USC00410832
BOYS RANCH          	TX	USC00411000
BRENHAM             	TX	USC00411048
BROWNWOOD 2ENE      	TX	USC00411138
CATARINA            	TX	USC00411528
CORSICANA           	TX	USC00412019
CROSBYTON           	TX	USC00412121
DANEVANG 1 W        	TX	USC00412266
DUBLIN 2SE          	TX	USC00412598
EAGLE PASS 3N       	TX	USC00412679
ENCINAL             	TX	USC00412906
FALFURRIAS          	TX	USC00413063
GREENVILLE KGVL RADI	TX	USC00413734
HASKELL             	TX	USC00413992
LAMPASAS            	TX	USC00415018
LLANO               	TX	USC00415272
LULING              	TX	USC00415429
MCCAMEY             	TX	USC00415707
MEXIA               	TX	USC00415869
MIAMI               	TX	USC00415875
MULESHOE #1         	TX	USC00416135
NEW BRAUNFELS       	TX	USC00416276
PECOS               	TX	USC00416892
QUANAH 2 SW         	TX	USC00417336
RIO GRANDE CITY     	TX	USC00417622
SNYDER              	TX	USC00418433
TEMPLE              	TX	USC00418910
WEATHERFORD         	TX	USC00419532
ALTON               	UT	USC00420086
DESERET             	UT	USC00422101
ESCALANTE           	UT	USC00422592
FILLMORE            	UT	USC00422828
FT DUCHESNE         	UT	USC00422996
HEBER               	UT	USC00423809
LEVAN               	UT	USC00425065
LOGAN UTAH ST UNIV  	UT	USC00425186
PANGUITCH           	UT	USC00426601
ST GEORGE           	UT	USC00427516
SCIPIO              	UT	USC00427714
UTAH LAKE LEHI      	UT	USC00428973
BREMO BLUFF         	VA	USC00440993
CHARLOTTESVILLE 2W  	VA	USC00441593
DALE ENTERPRISE     	VA	USC00442208
PENNINGTON GAP      	VA	USC00446626
PIEDMONT RSCH STN   	VA	USC00446712
ROCKY MT            	VA	USC00447338
STAUNTON WATER TRMTM	VA	USC00448062
WILLIAMSBURG 2 N    	VA	USC00449151
BLAINE              	WA	USC00450729
CEDAR LAKE          	WA	USC00451233
LONG BEACH EXP STN  	WA	USC00454748
ODESSA              	WA	USC00456039
POMEROY             	WA	USC00456610
PORT ANGELES        	WA	USC00456624
PULLMAN 2 NW        	WA	USC00456789
RAYMOND 2 S         	WA	USC00456914
RITZVILLE 1 SSE     	WA	USC00457059
SUNNYSIDE           	WA	USC00458207
WATERVILLE          	WA	USC00459012
WENATCHEE           	WA	USC00459074
WILBUR              	WA	USC00459238
SPENCER             	WV	USC00468384
HANCOCK EXP FARM    	WI	USC00473405
MANITOWOC           	WI	USC00475017
ALTA 1 NNW          	WY	USC00480140
COLONY              	WY	USC00481905
GREEN RIVER         	WY	USC00484065
MIDWEST             	WY	USC00486195
NEWCASTLE           	WY	USC00486660
SARATOGA            	WY	USC00487990
SHERIDAN FLD STA    	WY	USC00488160
WORLAND             	WY	USC00489770
YELLOWSTONE PK MAMMO	WY	USC00489905

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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8 Responses to It Is Not The TOBS, Stupid

  1. gator69 says:

    Yes, it is simply the BS.

    TO BS‘ is their creed.

  2. Daavid A says:

    Convincing.
    How do they justify their quantification of the TOBS adjustment?
    Is it entirely theoretical, with no comparisons such as you have made here?

  3. gregole says:

    Interesting work Steven.

    I’ve gone out and looked at a couple of the stations in Arizona, Ajo, Safford, and Yuma and they look well sited where they are even though towns and cities have grown around them.

    Ajo is outside a building and parking lot structure so it gets rated poorly but I don’t think that’s really fair since it is sited on an area just above a dry creek bed on a generally rocky and rough area. It probably records true – some areas of our earth are rocky and rough!

    Safford and Yuma-Citrus are both sited within grassy areas away from other buildings – but both are in areas that have grown and expanded over time. My point is they may not be perfect, but aren’t as bad as ones now surrounded by parking lots or being blown on by AC outlets!

    • Any asphalt within 50 yards will have some effect. Not to mention irrigation, air conditioning and heating in the neighborhood

    • I understand that UHI can have an effect at substantial distances downwind.

      Based on an observational and modeling study of an extreme UHI (heat wave) episode in the Baltimore metropolitan region, we find that upstream urbanization exacerbates UHI effects and that meteorological consequences of extra-urban development can cascade well downwind. Under southwesterly wind, Baltimore, MD, experienced higher peak surface temperatures and higher pollution concentrations than did the larger urban area of Washington, DC.

      Upstream urbanization exacerbates urban heat island effects
      Da-Lin Zhang, Yi-Xuan Shou, and Russell R. Dickerson
      Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, L24401, doi:10.1029/2009GL041082, 2009
      http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~dalin/Zhang-Shou-Dickerson-urbanization-UHI-grl09.pdf

      • gregole says:

        Points well taken!

        My original intent was to find some stations reasonably close to me and visit them on weekends and do an approach with a temperature logger on my car aerial to see if surrounding temperatures matched readings close or very close to the actual stations.

        I do this in my neighborhood because it’s just a few minutes from where I live in the southeast of Phoenix to the Indian Res to see the dramatic change in temperatures between urban and rural. I wondered if I could do something similar with a few of what I’ll call the “semi-rural” stations like Ajo, Yuma-Citrus and Safford. In these places, it’s like 5-10 minutes and you are in open desert / prairie land. Just an excuse to hit the road and do a little student – citizen science project.

        I ran out of time for my little project when I got busy at work…but in seeing the magnitude of the adjustments of the raw station data; and the seeming impunity these characters operate under damped my enthusiasm. I mean, who really cares what is actually happening on the ground when the surface station temperatures are going to be “adjusted” to match CO2 regardless of siting specifics? (As you have shown on numerous posts!)

        Once it really sank in how perverted the land records are, I gave up interest. It is really sad what is happening. So much potential for interesting measurement projects all hijacked by people we support with tax dollars. Sad.

  4. Ali Bertarian says:

    What is the actual evidence for TOBS recording errors? If TOBS results in double-counting, then wouldn’t the raw data record reflect that by showing numerous consecutive days with the same high temperature? Is that allegation of TOBS shown in the raw data record?

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