Putting Curry And Mosher To The Test

Curry and Mosher claim that UHI has no impact on rural vs. urban temperature trends. I put that to the test in New South Wales, with two of the longest temperature records in Australia.

Sydney Observatory is right next to 20 lanes of asphalt and has warmed almost 2C since 1860.

ScreenHunter_7134 Feb. 14 07.05ScreenHunter_3274 Oct. 03 05.07

Forbes is a rural station and has cooled about one degree since the 1870’s.

ScreenHunter_7133 Feb. 14 07.00ScreenHunter_7130 Feb. 14 06.20ScreenHunter_7129 Feb. 14 06.19

This is the same pattern we see at all the old rural stations in Australia like Deniliquin, Bourke, etc. SE Australia has cooled since the 19th century.

ScreenHunter_7135 Feb. 14 07.45

ScreenHunter_7136 Feb. 14 07.48

Satellites show that Berkeley Earth land temperatures are diverging from atmospheric temperatures in a hockey stick. A smoking gun that Berkeley Earth is severely tainted by UHI.

ScreenHunter_7137 Feb. 14 08.01

www.woodfortrees.org/data/rss-land/from:1996.5/plot/best/from:1996.5

The correct conclusion for Curry and Mosher to have drawn from their study is that their approach, including using the Modis night lights approach to identifying rural stations, is flawed – rather than their nonsensical conclusion that UHI hasn’t affected the temperature record.

Richard Muller, the fake skeptic who runs Berkeley Earth, wanted to prove that the hockey stick is correct.

By Richard Muller on December 17, 2003

Let me be clear. My own reading of the literature and study of paleoclimate suggests strongly that carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels will prove to be the greatest pollutant of human history. It is likely to have severe and detrimental effects on global climate. I would love to believe that the results of Mann et al. are correct, and that the last few years have been the warmest in a millennium.

Medieval Global Warming – Page 2 | MIT Technology Review

About stevengoddard

Just having fun
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

36 Responses to Putting Curry And Mosher To The Test

  1. Gail Combs says:

    BUT,BUT,But,but Steve,

    You hand cherry picked the data while The Mosh Pup et al use an AlGoreRhythm so the data is untouched by human hands.

    Everyone knows computers never ever make mistakes.

    I thought I would beat zeke and mosher to the punch.

  2. emsnews says:

    I suggest we have a global warming debate on my mountain this week. It is nearly March and colder than any week this year.

    This debate has one rule: anyone saying that it is getting warmer has to wear no winter clothing, preferably only a swim suit. The winner is the one who isn’t dead in three hours.

  3. Some proper scientists studied UHI in South Korea since 1954. They concluded that in most cities it was over 1C.

    Averaged over the whole country (incl rural areas) it amounted to 0.77C

    At several cities, GISS actually cool past temperatures in their UHI adj, and overall there is no allowance at all for UHI.

    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/02/14/uhi-in-south-korea-ignored-by-giss/

    • Unfortunately, all Mosher and Curry have proven is how much the dataset has been tampered with.

      • Gail Combs says:

        +1

        I agree with Blade, as I said before you do not mess with the data.

        You can do an analysis and give evidence as to why you think your interpretation is correct. But you certainly do not present to the public mangled data WITHOUT the original data and the reasons.

        Try doing the same with your tax records and see what the revenuers think of the mangled financial data without the original data front and center.

  4. gator69 says:

    One of the best papers I ever saw on UHI showed that the heat forms concentric domes of increasing temperature the closer one gets to the center of an urban area. The study used London as the subject and found a total increase of over 7F. Even the ‘outlying’ areas were effected by the nearby city, to the tune of 2-3F.

  5. catweazle666 says:

    Scientists first discovered the heat island effect in the 1800s when they observed cities growing warmer than surrounding rural areas, particularly in summer. Urban surfaces of asphalt, concrete, and other materials — also referred to as “impervious surfaces” — absorb more solar radiation by day. At night, much of that heat is given up to the urban air, creating a warm bubble over a city that can be as much as 1 to 3°C (2 to 5°F) higher than temperatures in surrounding rural areas.

    When examining cities in arid and semi-arid regions – such as North Africa and the American Southwest — scientists found that they are only slightly warmer than surrounding areas in summer and sometimes cooler than surrounding areas in winter. In the U.S., the summertime urban heat island (UHI) for desert cities like Las Vegas was 0.46°C lower than surrounding areas, compared to 10°C higher for cities like Baltimore. Globally, the differences were not as large, with a summertime UHI of -0.21°C for desert cities compared to +3.8°C for cities in forested regions.

    http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/terra/news/heat-islands.html

    But hey, “the science is settled” right?

    • Edmonton Al says:

      OK, but the temps used for claiming global warming, are biased by UHI as the areas least affected by UHI are ignored. Is that not true?
      That to me is why UHI is so important.

  6. omanuel says:

    I regret seeing Dr. Curry and Mosher lumped together, but scientists and pseudo-scientists have a choice to:

    1. Accept public funds to adjust, hide or manipulate data to support UN’s totalitarian control of the world under UN’s Agenda 21:

    http://habitat.igc.org/agenda21/index.htm

    2. Honestly consider and debate data and observations that show a much Higher Power than the UN is the benevolent creator and sustainer of every atom and life in the world:

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Solar_Energy_For_Review.pdf

  7. stewartpid says:

    I always thought that John Daly’s site What the Stations Say had some good rural vs urban info and I especially thought his West Point vs New York city was telling.
    http://www.john-daly.com/stations/stations.htm
    John was a real winner!!

    • Gail Combs says:

      That is why the B@$tards celebrated his death.

      Yesterday I visited John L. Daly’s tiny office where he lived on the outskirts of Launceston. It is about the size of two telephone boxes. His wife, Amy, has kept is just as it was when John died in 2004. His computer, his files, the maps on the wall — his notes, letters, photographs and dairies. She has also kept alive his web-site which he was still updating at the time of his death….

      After looking at the material that Amy still keeps – the nasty, snide letters and emails from IPCC members and other scientists, the evidence of the endless efforts to destroy his reputation – it seems ironic that the man the IPCC scientists so disliked, and tried to destroy, has now come back to haunt them. The comment by the Chief Scientist at CRU, Phil Jones, on learning that Daly was dead — “… in an odd way this is cheering news” — was not one of the great moments in scientific endeavor.…..
      http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2009/11/john-l-daly/

  8. omanuel says:

    Steven,

    My attempts to post on Real Science have recently failed.

    Have I done something wrong or is this a random glitch in the computer?

  9. Joseph says:

    So when are Mosher and Curry going to admit they’re wrong?

  10. Gail Combs says:

    Yesterday I visited John L. Daly’s tiny office where he lived on the outskirts of Launceston. It is about the size of two telephone boxes. His wife, Amy, has kept is just as it was when John died in 2004. His computer, his files, the maps on the wall — his notes, letters, photographs and dairies. She has also kept alive his web-site which he was still updating at the time of his death.

    After looking at the material that Amy still keeps – the nasty, snide letters and emails from IPCC members and other scientists, the evidence of the endless efforts to destroy his reputation – it seems ironic that the man the IPCC scientists so disliked, and tried to destroy, has now come back to haunt them. The comment by the Chief Scientist at CRU, Phil Jones, on learning that Daly was dead — “… in an odd way this is cheering news” — was not one of the great moments in scientific endeavor….
    http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2009/11/john-l-daly/

  11. Gail Combs says:

    GRRRrrrr WordUnimpress is in Censorship mode again!

    Yesterday I visited John L. Daly’s tiny office where he lived on the outskirts of Launceston. It is about the size of two telephone boxes. His wife, Amy, has kept is just as it was when John died in 2004. His computer, his files, the maps on the wall — his notes, letters, photographs and dairies. She has also kept alive his web-site which he was still updating at the time of his death.

    After looking at the material that Amy still keeps – the nasty, snide letters and emails from IPCC members and other scientists, the evidence of the endless efforts to destroy his reputation – it seems ironic that the man the IPCC scientists so disliked, and tried to destroy, has now come back to haunt them. The comment by the Chief Scientist at CRU, Phil Jones, on learning that Daly was dead — “… in an odd way this is cheering news” — was not one of the great moments in scientific endeavor….

    • Gail Combs says:

      Read about the flak John took and the glee with which the ClimAstrologists greeted the news of his death.

      I have not been able to post the paragraph here.

  12. Lawrence 13 says:

    John Daly was a giant. He fought tooth and nail in a time where all they dire predictions made about AGW had still to be tested. Now we have the luxury of hindsight as time as shown us that nothing, not one of those shrill predictions came to pass. So in many ways it’s easier for us now to be heard even thought the left increasingly jumped on the AGW bandwagon. I agree with that author about John Daly and have said what a hero he is of mine several times on this blog.

    • omanuel says:

      Yes, john Daly had the courage of his convictions. MIT’s Professor Lindzen has also stood his ground.

      In 1945, my research mentor, Paul K. Kuroda, secretly took possession of Japan’s plans on how to build atomic bombs and retained them for the next fifty-seven years, until 2002, in order to show that consensus scientists lied to public about the source of energy that powers atomic bombs, nuclear reactors and Earth’s heat source.

  13. SMS says:

    When you subtract the Forbes temperature from the Sydney temperature do you get a (more or less) linear line angling up? Maybe not linear, but some function that would reflect population growth. This would create a more obvious indication of UHI by canceling out the weather common to both sites.

  14. A C Osborn says:

    Steven, you may like to know that Mosher has posted quite a few links to UHI Studies using BEST algorithms and they do actually work, please take a look for yourself. (Note they convert back to absolutes, the thing they say is a no can do)
    But now look at what they present to the Public here
    http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/locations/37.78N-126.10E
    and compare it the Station that they coose for their UHI proof
    http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/stations/156456
    and look at what the Trend is after Break Point Adjustments compared to the Trend and Shape that they present to the public.
    See how easy it is to fool people.
    I found the same thing for London and the Heathrow Station they chose..

  15. Bruce of Newcastle says:

    Pielke Snr has written on the temperature effect land use changes many time. Here is one for example:

    Why is Land Use/Land Cover Change a First-Order Climate Forcing?

    In climate speak the acronym is LULCC for “land-use and land-cover changes”. It makes complete logical sense that clearing for agriculture would have a significant warming effect through lower cloud cover (since cloud cover is related to tree transpiration – as in the Amazon). Then there is the radiative differences between foliage and dark coloured plowed ground. And etc.

    Roy Spencer has shown that population density has a large warming effect even for quite small numbers of people:

    The Global Average Urban Heat Island Effect in 2000 Estimated from Station Temperatures and Population Density Data

    Only 25 people per square km can be seen to result in 0.8 C temperature rise in the last of the graphs in the article. By contrast the entire global temperature rise last century was about the same as this.

    So calling it UHIE is a bit of a misnomer since about a third of it has already occurred by the time you get to 25 people per km^2. Which would usually be regarded Class A rural.

  16. Ivan says:

    Interesting that the Sydney temperatures began to “climb” in the 1950s – just about the time that they built the Cahill Expressway – and put the loop of asphalt (LHS of photo) around the weather station.

  17. markstoval says:

    This thread is just more evidence that the government funded data sets are a bunch of lies and distortions. Disgusting.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s