Global Warming Excuse #1

Mikey Mann just used La Nina as excuse #1,038 for the global warming pause. This is the identical excuse which Hansen used in 1988

ScreenHunter_7681 Mar. 04 06.47ScreenHunter_7682 Mar. 04 06.48  ScreenHunter_7679 Mar. 04 06.44

Ellensburg Daily Record – Google News Archive Search

Climate Oscillations and the Global Warming Faux Pause | Michael E. Mann

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9 Responses to Global Warming Excuse #1

  1. Alec aka Daffy Duck says:

    If you follow nino3.4 when feb’s number comes out it will the 4th 3-month at +.5, and March is looking like it will be the 5th…. So Mann is blaming La Niña while in the middle of an El Niño!

  2. David A says:

    Weird how these folk canNOT say the warming was caused by s strong AMO and PDO with very large El Niño’s. Since May of 2012 the NINO 3.4 Index has been mostly positive, with no strong signals either way. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/nino3_4.png

    Also the PDO went positive in 2014. An unusually strong move leading to unusually high SST. (In affect a very strong El Nino, just not restricted to that region. http://www.climate4you.com/images/PDO%20AnnualIndexSince1900%20With7yearRunningAverage.gif

    If (a big IF, as so much is not known about our climate) the PDO switches back on the next move, and La NADA goes negative as well, and the AMO turns negative, then the surface adjustments will have to shatter all previous attempts, and the divergence from RSS will skyrocket. There is currently a pool of cool water below 1/2 the NINO 3.4 region. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/sub_surf_mon.gif

    • Gail Combs says:

      In the Silly Wild Ass Guess (SWAG) category.

      Take a look at what is happening with the Antarctic sea ice and what that does to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current going through Drake Passage. This is where the Humboldt current splits off from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and heads up the western side of South America. If you look at this Sea Surface Temperature map, it has a good image of the tongue of cold water from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (West Wind Drift) just before Drake Passage, headed up the coast of South America to Galapagos.

      fhhaynie (former EPA scientists) says: @ January 18, 2014 at 8:24 am
      http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/18/comments-on-the-nature-article-climate-change-the-case-of-the-missing-heat/#comment-1540259

      If I were asked to pick a single point on earth that most likely has the greatest effect on global weather and climate, it would be 0 and 90W (Galapagos). This is where El-nino winds, the deep sea Cromwell current, the Panama current, and the Humboldt current meet. These flows are not constant and each has different cycles and those cycles are not constant. Cycles on cycles create extremes in weather and climate. These extremes have an effect globally. I suspect these cycles are also controlling our observed atmospheric concentration of CO2. CO2 is very likely a lagging indicator and not a cause of climate change.

      So my SWAG is:
      Change in Solar ==> change in ozone ==> change in Quasi-Biennial Ocillation (QBO) ==> Change in ozone at the poles ==> change in wind strength/patterns in the Antarctic ==> Change in the West Wind Drift (the wind driven Antarctic Circumpolar Current) ==>restriction at Drake Passage causes more or less Antarctic cold water to run up the side of the coast of South America as the Humboldt Current ===> ENSO (It also runs up the east side of South America into the Atlantic. ” As the West Wind Drift flows past Cape Horn, that part in the immediate vicinity of the cape is called the Cape Horn Current. This current rounds the cape and flows in a northerly and northeasterly direction along the coast of South America as the Falkland or Malvinas Current” —CHAPTER 31 OCEAN CURRENTS: TYPES AND CAUSES OF CURRENTS (Maritime Safety Information)

      Cold water also runs up the side of the coast of South Africa into the Atlantic and the amount would be controlled by the same wind pattern/strength. (The ENSO tele-connection to the Atlantic anyone?)

      Research on Drakes Passage today: http://climate.gmu.edu/research/drake.php

      …Significance

      The experiments address a fundamental question of how the circulation of the ocean works. Since the global overturning circulation is apparently sensitive to wind even in regions where the ocean has eastern and western boundaries, it may be influenced by wind outside the Drake Passage latitudes. However, our results indicate that the unique geometry of the Drake Passage latitudes does make the global circulation – and perhaps the climate of the North Atlantic – especially sensitive to wind there.

      Ozone intensification of the westerly winds connection. (You will need to hold your nose while reading it.) http://www.theozonehole.com/ozonehgood.htm

      In 2009, the ozone hole reached its 10th largest measured size since careful measurements began in 1979….

      The Hole in ozone layer has shielded most of Antarctica from global warming The ozone hole has delayed the impact of greenhouse gas increases on the climate of the continent. Consequently south polar winds (the polar vortex), have intensified and affected Antarctic weather patterns. Westerly winds over the Southern Ocean that surrounds Antarctica have increased by around 15%…

  3. pinroot says:

    So we go from internal variability not existing (or not strong enough to overcome anthropogenic “forcings”) to it now “explaining” the pause.

    Fortunately, the science is still settled. /sarc

  4. Chewer says:

    And it looks like freeze up is on track down south 😉
    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

  5. rah says:

    Just finished a trip to Pottsville (I thought I was going to Pottstown) PA. where I delivered Nestle’s product to a Wegman’s DC. Monday night.

    Next day (Tuesday) I picked up in Allentown, PA. 24 pallets of frozen French Toast sticks filled the floor of my trailer weighing 12,700 lbs put my rig in the perfect weight range to have good traction and yet make good time in the hills. A mixture of sleet and rain was coming down the whole time I was in at the facility. Got in at 14:30 and departed at 17:42.

    Did a little winter driving and snow and sleet in Allentown during their rush hour when I headed home. But by the time I got down to the I-76 PA turnpike it was just wet so no issues going as fast as the law allowed or the truck would go. Noticed the Ohio River was a little less frozen than last week but the Monongahela still looks just as ice covered.

    About the time I passed into OH from WV along the I-470 bypass I noticed I was sweating in my Under Armor long underwear. A check of the truck thermometer and I understood why! It was 50 deg. F!

    Though there is still snow on the ground and occasional bouts of winter weather here there is a distinct lack of bitterness in the cold. There are the first barley perceptible hints of spring coming.

    • Gail Combs says:

      It was in the 70’s here in mid NC yesterday. (high 75 °F) currently 65 °F. But not to worry it will be “rain with freezing rain likely this afternoon. Ice accumulation around a trace… North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph” and back down to 25° F tonight. Grumble

      I am Really Really sick of winter….

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