Reader Survey

What percentage of zero warming is Mann-made?

ScreenHunter_8369 Apr. 05 22.42

  1. Mostly Mann-made
  2. Equally Mann-made and natural
  3. Mostly natural
  4. Not interested in troposphere temperatures. Only do Urban Heat Island temperatures

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27 Responses to Reader Survey

  1. Latitude says:

    How would anyone know?

  2. Menicholas says:

    “What percentage of zero warming is Mann-made?”

    5, All but 300% of it is natural.

  3. Centinel2012 says:

    Of the TOTAL greenhouse effect of 33 degrees C maybe 10% is caused by CO2 and of that amount only 1/3 is at most from burning fossil fuels; so maybe today the total effect at 400 ppm is 1.1 degree C from burning fossil fuels. Natural cycles account of the rest which is 97% and I’d say that is conservative its probably more. The current pause is 100% natural.

    • David A says:

      “so maybe today the total effect at 400 ppm is 1.1 degree C from burning fossil fuels”

      Observations do not support even a doubling of CO2 to 560PPm to be more then 1 degree C. Not when ocean cycles are taken into account.

      • David A says:

        Look at Ben Santer’s chart with ENSO and volcanic events removed, the bottom chart.
        But I think he got the CIMP 5 multi model mean wrong, as it only shows .2 degrees in twenty years, and I think the model warming for CO2 exclusive of ENSO and volcanism is about .3 per decade?

        • Gail Combs says:

          Note the grey area in Ben Santer’s charts. If you consider error there has been no warming especially when you push the older readings down to the bottom of the error range and raise the newer readings to the top of the error range. Lots of prestidatatation in Climate Science®.

          From Anthony Watts Surface Station Project:

          Climate Reference Network Rating Guide – adopted from NCDC Climate Reference Network Handbook, 2002
          Class 1 (CRN1)- Flat and horizontal ground surrounded by a clear surface with a slope below 1/3 (<19deg). Grass/low vegetation ground cover 3 degrees.

          Class 2 (CRN2) – Same as Class 1 with the following differences. Surrounding Vegetation 5deg.

          Class 3 (CRN3) (error >=1C) – Same as Class 2, except no artificial heating sources within 10 meters.

          Class 4 (CRN4) (error >= 2C) – Artificial heating sources = 5C) – Temperature sensor located next to/above an artificial heating source, such a building, roof top, parking lot, or concrete surface.”

          http://www.surfacestations.org/

  4. Centinel2012 says:

    Reblogged this on Centinel2012 and commented:
    Of the TOTAL greenhouse effect of 33 degrees C maybe 10% is caused by CO2 and of that amount only 1/3 is at most from burning fossil fuels; so maybe today the total effect at 400 ppm is 1.1 degree C from burning fossil fuels. Natural cycles account of the rest which is 97% and I’d say that is conservative its probably more. The current pause is 100% natural.

    • Gail Combs says:

      The entire CO2 forcing is 32 to 44 W m–2 [cf., Reid, 1997]. and all but 5 to 6 W m–2 of that forcing occurs in the first 200 ppm CO2 (modtran) Out of the 5 to 6 W m–2 of that forcing that occurred from 200 ppm to 400 ppm Mankind contributed maybe 4 to 5% or at most 0.25 W m–2.

      To put that in context:
      NOAA: gives the calculated orbital forcing variations at 60°N
      hyyp://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/orbital_variations/berger_insolation/insol91.jun

      Holocene peak insolation: 523 Wm-2
      ……………………………………………..decrease = 47 Wm-2
      NOW (modern Warm Period) 476 Wm-2
      …………………………………………….. decrease = 12 Wm-2
      Depth of the last ice age – around 464 Wm−2

      It takes about 5 Watts per square metre to raise the worlds temperature from 15°C to 16°C so the entire forcing from CO2 for 200 ppm to 400 ppm cause a one degree warming. CO2 would have to rise to 800 ppm (another doubling) to raise the temperature another degree and that is only if the ClimAstrologists have the physics correct. Dr Happer says they do not. See my old comments: Dr Robert bBrown and Gallopingcamel (also a physicist) and Dr. Happer

  5. gator69 says:

    You had better ask an expert like Gavin, it’s complicated and will require adjustments. We will likely not know until at least AR7, or 8 or 9. How much money can we print?

  6. matt says:

    Thats an easy one: 97 pct of the zero warming is man made. The other 3 pct of zero are caused by nature. Finally I see the light.
    Rgds from Chile

  7. Doug says:

    Zero percent warming is an illusion. It’s warming faster than ever, but it’s a special kind of warming that can’t be measured with thermometers. And everybody knows that special warming is 100% man made.

    • gator69 says:

      Yes the new measuring instrument is called a Gavinator, or Grantometer. It’s complicated, and homogenized for your deception.

    • DD More says:

      That must be the “Dark Warming”. All those climate physicist hear about it from the star gazers and figured if it could explain all the screwed up astro-problems, it would work for the warmers too.

  8. Andy Oz says:

    It all started before the Babylonians discovered the number zero.
    I blame the Minoans and their half Mann Minotaur. His hoof-prints are all over this zero warming.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3038573/Bronze-Age-civilisation-destroyed-perfect-storm-Ancient-Egypt-societies-collapsed-climate-change-war-earthquakes.html#ixzz3XQvLnO9F

  9. annieoakley says:

    “We got a little complacent about shifting hardiness zones,” said Larry Hurly, of Behnke Nurseries in Beltsville, Md. After all of their ‘cute’ plants grew too large to cover and froze. Ha, Ha, Y’all think you are sooo smart. Try growing tomatoes at 7,000 ft above sea level or anything besides root crops really.

  10. Anto says:

    I suspect that there are some strong negative feedbacks going on, because with the amount of hot air Mann and his fellow cronies have been blowing the past few decades, we should be living in a sauna by now.

  11. Disillusioned says:

    I’m afraid most CO2-phobic believers in the Sky is Falling hype-pothesis (which is settled science) won’t understand the survey questions. They cannot read any graph that isn’t designed by Grantology or Gavination, so they’ll have no idea what you’re asking and will be especially clueless about question #4. You might as well be speaking Martianese.

    In order to provide any survey answers at all, they’ll have to ask their political religious leaders, some of whom will at least understand the survey. After which, they may be provided a gobbledygook, sciency sounding answer (basically that that chart you provided has not been adjusted by the proper authorities to conform to “the science” – which needs to happen first before the questions can be properly answered. Then would they be able to take your survey.

    • Disillusioned says:

      On second thought, they’ll just be told to ignore the survey altogether, because you’re a fossil-fueled climate denier and that the survey is propaganda.

      (I had no idea those bicycles ran on fossil fuels.)

  12. David A: can you provie a link to the graphs you presented?

  13. Winnipeg Boy says:

    100% of zero temp trend is manmade. Error bars 0% to 200%.
    I am 97% sure of it.
    60% of the time, it works everytime.

  14. pinroot says:

    I recall Mann stating somewhere (Twitter, I believe) that it was greater than 100% lol.

  15. i vote for 4. Not interested in troposphere temperatures. Only do Urban Heat Island temperatures. I always put my thermometer above the stove and only read while my wife is cooking so i can remind her of how warm it is in the house during the Wisconsin Winters. http://www.bobbyshred.com/fools/falsetemps.html

  16. Brian H says:

    10^10^10 x 0 = 0.

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