Four Years Past The 15 Year Rule

ScreenHunter_1802 May. 08 15.34ScreenHunter_1801 May. 08 15.24

www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams-sotc/climate-assessment-2008-lo-rez.pdf

Climate experts say that a 15 year pause is impossible – based on global warming theory. We are now at almost 19 years.

ScreenHunter_8931 May. 04 07.49

If these were actual scientists, the scam would be defunct.

About stevengoddard

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11 Responses to Four Years Past The 15 Year Rule

  1. Gail Combs says:

    It is all about the statements made by Warmists:
    1. Prof. Phil Jones saying in the Climategate emails – “Bottom line: the “no upward trend” has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried.” Also see: interview with Judith Curry and Phil Jones

    2. Ben Santer in a 2011 paper “Our results show that temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global-mean tropospheric temperature.” link

    3. The NOAA falsification criterion is on page S23 of its 2008 report titled The State Of The Climate

    ENSO-adjusted warming in the three surface temperature datasets over the last 2–25 yr continually lies within the 90% range of all similar-length ENSO-adjusted temperature changes in these simulations (Fig. 2.8b). Near-zero and even negative trends are common for intervals of a decade or less in the simulations, due to the model’s internal climate variability. The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, [Maybe THAT is the 95% the IPCC is now talking about.] suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate.

    4. we are looking at no changes in temperature over a period longer than the 10 years that James Hansen once said would show the models wrong;

    So the falsification criteria is 15 years to 17 years. That is why we start at the present and count backwards. Once we hit 17 years The Goose is Cooked. Unfortunately the Goose seems to be a zombie and keeps rising from the dead.

    Anyone have silver bullets, garlic and a wooden stake?

    H/T to my favorite Socialist, Richard S Courtney

    • AZ1971 says:

      Even Dr. Spencer’s UAH shows a decline in global temperatures. Stability for 15+ years is one thing; a decline is entirely different. I got banned from Dosbat’s blog today because the moderator didn’t like that I called out discrepancies in the AGW theory regarding albedo, and how global temperatures have remained stable since ~2001.

      He played exactly from the AGW script: conflate data, refute discrepancies by mocking skeptics, threaten banishment, then carry it out. I love how convenient climate change is as a panacea for all things bad, e.g. using it to explain the loss in Arctic sea ice, then when it recovers, blame any recovery on weather patterns despite coincidentally having the same thing having caused the thick old ice blow out through the Fram Strait in 2006-07.

      Hypocrites.

  2. Billy Liar says:

    I think the fifteen years have been adjusted …

    After all, a number to a climate scientist is like plan to a project manager, a basis for change.

  3. Me says:

    The punts want to continue their gravy boat.

  4. sabretoothed says:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_Underground

    It all stems from the Weather Underground that has come out of the earth and blossomed into the new face of the NWO.

  5. Bruce of Newcastle says:

    Now 18 years 6 months of dead flat trend in RSS TLT global (1996.8 to 2015.3 which is the 1 May datapoint).

    I think it is now time to panic*.

    (*if you are a climate trougher).

  6. sfx2020 says:

    Ever notice how when it’s alarm-ism, it’s OK to look at one region? Like the current drought in California. If you use global figures, no drought. But if you talk about the Eastern winter trend, they say you have to look at the global mean, one region means nothing.

    It’s a con game.

  7. MrX says:

    I’ve heard of moving the goal post. But climate scientists simply did away with them. Too cumbersome.

  8. Eliza says:

    Dr Bill Gray a real Meteorologist/Atmospheric physicists as distinct to all “the so called experts (J Curry, Monckton ect)

    Click to access Crux_Flawed_Science.pdf

  9. Joe says:

    It’s a good thing the greens didn’t get their way before the 15 years was up, because now the world can really see that doing nothing about Co2 doesn’t sway temperature.

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