Scientists Blame Their Incompetence On Dumb Luck

Two years ago, scientists predicted an increase in hurricanes, based on the scientific theory that making alarmist predictions would get them headlined in the Guardian, and bring in more research money.

ScreenHunter_9100 May. 09 11.43

Global warming and the future of storms | John Abraham | Environment | The Guardian

Now they blame the failure of their worthless predictions on “dumb luck”  – and the Guardian is disappointed that more people aren’t getting killed.

ScreenHunter_9101 May. 09 11.44

US hurricane drought is ‘basically dumb luck’, scientists say | World news | The Guardian

h/t to Dave G

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15 Responses to Scientists Blame Their Incompetence On Dumb Luck

  1. R. Shearer says:

    Coincidentally, it’s not warming either. I guess I’d rather be lucky.

    • Whatever they predict.. the exact opposite seems to occur… for instance:
      1. Warmer Temperatures = Temps remain flat or slightly decline
      2. The “End of Snow”… UK got dumped on this year, record cold/snow across Canada/USA
      3. “End of Snow” .. Gore Trumpets the end of snow… since then record cold and snow seem to follow him everywhere… even Cancun!!
      4. Arctic Death Spiral = Arctic Ice has recovered to 1982 Levels, lots of 3-5 year Ice!
      5. Cherry Tree’s in DC will now blossom in February… didn’t happen until late April for the past 2 years..
      6. Permanent Drought… The entire Southwest USA has remained in a Permanent Drought since this prediction… despite all the rain…
      7 Death of the Polar Bears = According to those who are actually up there… Polar Bear numbers are GROWING in most all areas..
      8 Island Nations will succumb to Sea Level Rise… Island Nations just want reparations folks… reparations.. storms pull away land mass… eventually the waves push it back onshore again..
      9 Sea Level rise will accelerate… Sea Level Rise has slowed.
      10 CO2 will kill more people… CO2 is a naturally occurring gas… definitely far from Lethal at 400ppm… but I’d encourage Mikey Mann, Jones, and Gavin to inhale much higher levels of this gas… Al Gore too..

  2. “….Snow in winter
    Our children would no longer see,
    So what’s that stuff
    Falling so copiously?
    And more frequent hurricanes,
    That’s what we were told,
    Another false prediction
    On which we were sold…..”
    Read more:

  3. geologyjim says:

    The John Abraham article cites “new research by Kerry Emanuel”, which is all you need to know.

    Emanuel is a reliable rouser on the threat of “catastrophic climate change” – very convenient for him, as he sits on the Board of Directors of a couple of insurance companies that sell policies to those allegedly threatened by “climate change”

    Lubos Motl has it here:


    • Billy Liar says:

      Luboš doesn’t mince his words, does he? He was equally scathing about Professor Brian Cox who inhabits much of the UK media as a physicist:

      But there is a gem in the next paragraph:

      Cox, a physicist who works on the Large Hadron Collider where the Higgs boson was discovered, said that 95% certainty in science is effectively total.

      Wow. If he actually were a competent particle physicist rather than a pathetic environmentalist clown pretending to be a caricature of a scientist, he would know that the 95% confidence – also known as 2-sigma evidence – is almost equivalent to no evidence at all. Moreover, even this figure 95% is vastly exaggerated and all papers that claim this level of certainty (there are not too many such papers) are fraudulent or they are not scientific papers at all (like the IPCC reports’ summaries where politicians just made these numbers up).

      • Ted says:

        “Cox, a physicist who works on the Large Hadron Collider where the Higgs boson was discovered, said that 95% certainty in science is effectively total.”

        In 2012, Cox’s own team would only say that the new particle they’d found was “consistent with” the Higgs boson. At the time, CMS was claiming they had 5 sigma evidence, and the ATLAS team (the one Cox works on) was claiming their evidence was 5.9 sigma, or a 1 in 588 million chance of a random occurrence. In physics, that doesn’t constitute certainty. Contrary to what the media tells us, CERN has yet to officially declare the Higgs boson “found.” But for climate research, 2 sigma is apparently plenty to justify starving and impoverishing much of the world.

      • Hugh says:

        It is missing a word. Total bullsxxt.

  4. inMAGICn says:

    You mean CO2 forcing can’t overwhelm statistical fluctuations: i.e. “dumb luck?”

  5. amirlach says:

    May 06, 2015

    Who’s winning the Global Warming War?

    Tim Ball
    Rebel Blogger

    • rah says:

      Mother Nature is winning. She ultimately always does. It’s just that one side is led by those too corrupt to admit it who are followed by those too ignorant and close minded to admit it.

  6. markstoval says:

    Hey, wait a minute. Their predictions did get them more money and headlines in the Guardian. A win as they say in climate ‘science’.

  7. oldfossil says:

    Good golfers thank their good luck (although it’s isn’t luck). Bad golfers blame their bad luck (although it isn’t luck).

  8. daveburton says:

    Someday we’ll get hit by another big hurricane, and, no matter how long we have to wait for it, I can just about guarantee that NASA GISS won’t call it “bad luck.”

  9. Dave N says:

    They have the “dumb” part right.

    If they cannot account for this kind of scenario, they can’t be trusted to predict 10 years into the future, let alone 100.

    Welcome to “settled science”

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