The New Normal In The Arctic – Cold Summers

For the third year in a row, near-polar temperatures have dropped below normal in May.

meanT_2015

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Both of the last two years, temperatures stayed below normal for the entire melt season.

meanT_2014meanT_2013

The below normal summer temperatures are keeping the ice from melting, and have led to a large expansion in the amount of thick multi-year ice

CCENJUyWAAE_7H2

Alarmists don’t mention any of this climate scam-wrecking information, and instead focus on above normal (-25C) winter temperatures, which are the result of polar air plunging far south and freezing the Great Lakes with record ice.

ScreenHunter_9090 May. 09 07.54

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About stevengoddard

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43 Responses to The New Normal In The Arctic – Cold Summers

  1. ACR says:

    OT … As of 11 p.m. EDT on Saturday, the NHC said TS Ana packed 60 mph winds. Each subsequent advisory had the storm weakening as it approached land. On Sunday, the NHC reported TS Ana made landfall with 45 mph winds. Three or four miles north of landfall is North Myrtle Beach’s Grand Strand Airport. Grand Strand recorded a max wind speed of 38 mph — on Saturday night. I know of no other ground station reporting winds in excess of 38 mph. Should we consider that Ana made landfall in the U.S. at tropical storm strength?

  2. ren says:

    The chilliest air will settle over the region Wednesday night. Under clear skies and diminishing winds, temperatures will drop to frosty levels in parts of West Virginia, western and northern Pennsylvania, western and northern New York state and northern New England.
    Frost is forecast neither in the Interstate-95 corridor to the coast nor in most urban areas farther inland.

  3. Jim Hunt says:

    Meanwhile your favourite DMI 30% metric is at the lowest level for the date since their records began:

    • It is almost identical to 2006 – the year with the highest minimum.

      Do you ever get tired of being an idiot?

      • Jim Hunt says:

        As luck would have it my favourite JAXA 15% metric is also currently at the lowest level for the date since their records began. How do you explain that?

        • I would say that only a complete moron would obsess over day to day variations of a couple of percent of ice extent.

        • Jim Hunt says:

          You seem to be the one who’s obsessed though. In this case about the day to day variations of the temperature at the North Pole?

        • Jl says:

          “Your favorite DMI 30% metric is at the lowest level for the date since their records began.” Of course “when the records began” might have some bearing on the discussion. Also, if it’s at the lowest level, it proves nothing as to why it’s at the lowest level.

        • David A says:

          Jim Hunt says, “You seem to be the one who’s obsessed though. In this case about the day to day variations of the temperature at the North Pole?”
          =============================================
          Was there some part of “Both of the last two years, temperatures stayed below normal for the entire melt season.” which you failed to read?

    • Andy DC says:

      We are at the bottneck point where the difference between the recent highest and lowest amount of ice is very tightly packed. We will have to see what happens once we get to summer.

  4. AndyG55 says:

    And the Antarctic isn’t particularly short of sea ice.

    I thought one of the climate alarmista drones said it would shortly be the only place people could live.

  5. Disillusioned says:

    Arctic alarmists are capitalizing on extent numbers, and ignoring the concentration and growth in volume. Even PIOMAS shows precipitous growth in volume of sea ice since 2011.

    I think the continued growth in volume and this concentration of sea ice is going to bite the warming alarmists in the butt in September. Again.

    • Jim Hunt says:

      -1.

      Please can you provide some evidence for your assertion that “PIOMAS shows precipitous growth in [the] volume of sea ice since 2011”.

      As for your subsequent thoughts, let’s meet here again in September to discuss them further!

      • Disillusioned says:

        See you in September.

        • David A says:

          Jim, why link to a bunch of different dates showing disparate regions in the arctic. The overall chart, dated 4-30-15, clearly show rapid OVERALL growth for the last four years.
          If the AMO continues to turn, there is no reason this NH trend will not continue, just as it has in the past.

        • Jim Hunt says:

          Because at this early stage in the melting season temperatures at the North Pole are irrelevant.

          Those regional PIOMAS graphs show LESS volume than April 2013 (i.e. immediately post the record 2012 melt) everywhere that counts outside the CAB.

          Have you ever heard of “albedo feedback”?

        • rah says:

          If Joe is right about the AMO shift then Jim will be out of a hobby for a time and can go find something else to worry about since anyone with sense will quit visiting his little blog. http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-may-9-2015

        • Gail Combs says:

          RAH,

          It is going to be interesting to see what all that sea ice in the Antarctic does to the West Wind Drift (Antarctic Circumpolar current) and the repercussions in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

          The West Wind Drift is wind driven and where it passes the tip of South America and Africa currents are diverted north towards the equator. Sea Ice, Ozone and the sun are going to have an impact on the strength of the winds driving that current and therefore the amount of cold water driven up the coasts.

          IIRC the winds have started strengthening which will drive more water northward as it hits the restrictions.
          “The Southern Ocean winds are now stronger than at any other time in the past 1,000 years,” Abram said. (The rest is hogwash)

          The Arctic is pretty much land locked so it is the Antarctic that has the major influence on the world’s oceans.

          New research points to the significant role of oceans in ancient global cooling
          ….New research published in the journal Science, led by Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute scientist Miriam Katz, is providing some of the strongest evidence to date that the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) played a key role in the major shift in the global climate that began approximately 38 million years ago. The research provides the first evidence that early ACC formation played a vital role in the formation of the modern ocean structure.

          “What we have found is that the evolution of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current influenced global ocean circulation much earlier than previous studies have shown,” said Katz, who is assistant professor of earth and environmental science at Rensselaer. “This finding is particularly significant because it places the impact of initial shallow ACC circulation in the same interval when the climate began its long-term shift to cooler temperatures.”….

        • David A says:

          So Jim, you do not like talking about the four years of arctic ice increase. you do not like talking about a 75 percent increase in arctic ice thickness over the past four years,

          and you do not like talking about what looks to be the third year in a row of Arctic circle air T dropping and staying below normal for the entire melt season, the message of this post, which had zero to do with daily ice extent at this time.

          Ok, well, we will see you in September, but the only burn you will likely feel is your pride. Perhaps you could borrow Reggie’s blow torch.

        • Jim Hunt says:

          David – I’m very familiar with that animation. Here’s my version:

          http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-videos/winter-201415-videos/#DAM

          That’s why I understand that it shows sea ice AGE, not thickness. At the risk of repeating myself:

          “Regional PIOMAS graphs show LESS volume than April 2013 (i.e. immediately post the record 2012 melt) everywhere that counts outside the Central Arctic Basin.”

          It’s a date!

        • AndyG55 says:

          The great con..

          How appropriate for a Jim link. !!

          Jim knows. He’s part of it.

        • AndyG55 says:

          Seriously, this Jim Hunt guy is truly pathetic.

          Started a blog, then closed comments after 4 comments… bloody hilarious. ! 🙂

        • AndyG55 says:

          BoltA would love the head tilt 😉

      • AndyG55 says:

        Jim should take a soap box up to the Arctic ice.

        If he creates enough useless hot air, maybe he can reverse the current increasing trend.

        • bit chilly says:

          agreed , claiming piomas is anything other than another climate modeler fantasy is hysterical . once again there will be no ice free arctic again this year . the countdown is on to the day jim hunt has to pay a charity of my choice £1000 . i look forward to that day.

      • bit chilly says:

        yes jim, let,s . how funny when there is a lesser extent in winter all the lowest ever level guff gets trotted out once the melt begins , we will be hearing about lowest ever levels right up until the extent crosses the line once the low volume areas melt out.

        this is when the rhetoric will increase from the idiot friv on the asif ,he has already begun his blowtorch bullshit ,though i see a couple of others have joined in this year.
        you fancy doubling that bet to £2000 if you are so confident steve is so wrong 🙂

      • AndyG55 says:

        Well you choose the appropriate site for you to inhabit.. Great CON.

        You know it is, so stop your childish propaganda.

        You have no chance of fooling anyone here, except yourself.

      • Jim Hunt says:

        Andy – Which “4 comment” post are you referring to?

  6. Fred from Canuckistan says:

    Not just the Arctic. Temperatures in the entire Great White North are dropping like a Climate Science Hysteric through rotten ice. 3 Degrees/century is Bring On the Next Ice Age rate of cooling.

    Real, measured cooling, not some tweaked & torqued output from a GCM or one of Gavin’s spreadsheets.

    The long underwear and toque industries in Canada are about to experience a boom.

    https://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2015/05/07/canada-is-cooling-since-1998-at-0-279cdecade/

  7. Brian H says:

    The entire discussion is irrational. If the feared 2° rise were to happen, nothing but good would result. The Alarmist consequences are grossly exaggerated, and the benefits disregarded. From Arctic passages to expanded farmland to much reduced weather deaths, it’s all good. Increase of CO2 would have nothing to do with causing the warmth, but would compound the benefits of warming.

    What is to be feared is the opposite, cooling, not least of whose harms would be a reduction of atmospheric CO2. It would also cause storms, droughts, expansion of the deserts, and loss of food supply. Weather deaths would begin rising again. And it’s cosmologically much more likely, probably overdue.

    • AndyG55 says:

      So absolutely true. You have just expressed what I was planning to write later.

      Extra CO2 = toatlly beneficial, life-giving plant food.

      A bit warmer = helps plants grow, feed the world.

      • Gail Combs says:

        Andy, you do not go far enough when you say “…. extra CO2 = totally beneficial, life-giving plant food….”
        Carbon dioxide starvation as the world gets cooler is a much more real problem than CAGW and it is a problem that is ignored

        The atmosphere is too CO2 limited to allow growth of trees on tropical mountains above certain heights and as the climate cools and the oceans suck up more and more CO2 (Henry’s Law ) that height becomes lower and lower until during the depths of the Wisconsin Ice Age trees at La Brea tar pits ( Elevation 164 ft (50 m) trees were in starvation mode.

        Now that is what I call a real environmental problem!

        Carbon starvation in glacial trees recovered from the La Brea tar pits, southern California.http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15642948
        The Royal Society: Carbon dioxide starvation, the development of C4 ecosystems, and mammalian evolution.
        http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/353/1365/159

        The decline of atmospheric carbon dioxide over the last 65 million years (Ma) resulted in the ‘carbon dioxide–starvation’ of terrestrial ecosystems and led to the widespread distribution of C4 plants, which are less sensitive to carbon dioxide levels than are C3 plants.

        And here is a real killer:
        Impact of lower atmospheric carbon dioxide on tropical mountain ecosystems

        Abstract

        Carbon-isotope values of bulk organic matter from high-altitude lakes on Mount Kenya and Mount Elgon, East Africa, were 10 to 14 per mil higher during glacial times than they are today. Compound-specific isotope analyses of leaf waxes and algal biomarkers show that organisms possessing CO2-concentrating mechanisms, including C4 grasses and freshwater algae, were primarily responsible for this large increase. Carbon limitation due to lower ambient CO2 partial pressures had a significant impact on the distribution of forest on the tropical mountains, in addition to climate. Hence, tree line elevation should not be used to infer palaeotemperatures.

    • Gail Combs says:

      During the Holocene Optimum temperatures were up to 3C higher in the Arctic and the arctic was ice free.

      Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic 2010
      Miller et al
      Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research and Department of Geological Sciences, University of Colorado, USA et al

      …. Solar energy reached a summer maximum (9% higher than at present) ~11 ka ago and has been decreasing since then, primarily in response to the precession of the equinoxes. The extra energy elevated early Holocene summer temperatures throughout the Arctic 1-3°C above 20th century averages, enough to completely melt many small glaciers throughout the Arctic, although the Greenland Ice Sheet was only slightly smaller than at present. Early Holocene summer sea ice limits were substantially smaller than their 20th century average, and the flow of Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean was substantially greater. As summer solar energy decreased in the second half of the Holocene, glaciers re-established or advanced, sea ice expanded

      Ice free Arctic Ocean, an Early Holocene analogue

      Abstract
      …..We therefore conclude that for a period in the Early Holocene, probably for a millenium or more, the Arctic Ocean was free of sea ice at least for shorter periods in the summer……

      New insights on Arctic Quaternary climate variability from palaeo-records and numerical modelling

      Abstract
      …..Arctic sea ice cover was strongly reduced during most of the early Holocene and there appear to have been periods of ice free summers in the central Arctic Ocean……

      • Gail Combs says:

        If you bother to look at the solar energy in the Arctic it is easy to see why the temperature was higher and the sea was free of ice during the Holocene Optimum.

        The Holocene is 11,700 years so the earth came out of Ice age when the insolation was 522.5 Wm−2 (12,000 years ago) The depth of the last ice age was 464 Wm−2 (23,000 years ago) so the insolation changed 58.5Wm−2 (the 60°N June insolation)

        The ClimAstrologists are saying that solar insolation change is going to be trumped by CO2 forcing when the entire CO2 forcing is 32 to 44 W m–2 [cf., Reid, 1997]. and all but 5 to 6 W m–2 of that forcing occurs in the first 200 ppm CO2 (modtran) A CO2 concentration where plants barely survive.

        Some how 60 W m–2 trumps 6 W m–2 in my book and that is using THEIR numbers!

        ……..

        Or you can look at it another way.

        The Holocene is 11,700 years old. That is 200 years past half precession cycle. (Milancovitch)

        According to Dr Brown (and the IPCC) the earth’s climate is a choatic system. For the past five million years the climate has been bi-stable with a warm phase, interstatials and Dansgaard-Oeschger events and a cold phase, the default condition of glaciation. The 60°N June insolation was close to or AT PEAK before the earth flipped to an enduring warm phase, the Holocene.

        All the INSOLATION VALUES are from NOAA.
        http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/orbital_variations/berger_insolation/insol91.jun
        11,000 years ago — 523.16 Wm−2 (insolation peaked)
        Holocene inception occured within three years per Dr Alley
        12,000 years ago — 522.50 Wm−2

        Right now the solar insolation is 476 Wm−2 only 12 Wm−2 above the insolation during the depths of the Wisconsin Ice Age. In other words while the Younger Dryas (`13000 years ago – 519.85 Wm−2) happenned during a time when the earth was in the warm stable state of high solar insolation, right now the earth insolation regimen is in a metastable state. One good kick and we are in the glaciation phase for the next 65,000 year or so. One thing is certain the earth is not going to warm catastrophically for another 65,000 year. The solar energy (that CO2 only retards escaping) is just not there.

        A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic D18O records
        Lisiecki & Raymo (2005)
        ABSTRACT
        We present a 5.3-Myr stack (the ‘‘LR04’’ stack) of benthic d18O records from 57 globally distributed sites aligned by an automated graphic correlation algorithm. This is the first benthic d18O stack composed of more than three records to extend beyond 850 ka,…

        RESULTS
        Recent research has focused on MIS 11 as a possible analog for the present interglacial [e.g., Loutre and Berger, 2003; EPICA Community Members, 2004] because both occur during times of low eccentricity. The LR04 age model establishes that MIS 11 spans two precession cycles, with d18O values below 3.6% for 20 kyr, from 398 – 418 ka. In comparison, stages 9 and 5 remained below 3.6% for 13 and 12 kyr, respectively, and the Holocene interglacial has lasted 11 kyr so far. In the LR04 age model, the average LSR of 29 sites is the same from 398– 418 ka as from 250–650 ka; consequently, stage 11 is unlikely to be artificially stretched. However, the 21 June insolation minimum at 65°N during MIS 11 is only 489 W/m2, much less pronounced than the present minimum of 474 W/m2. In addition, current insolation values are not predicted to return to the high values of late MIS 11 for another 65 kyr. We propose that this effectively precludes a ‘‘double precession cycle’’ interglacial [e.g., Raymo, 1997] in the Holocene without human influence….

        So we had better pray CO2 is the Magic Gas it is purported to be and can keep us out of glaciation, because CAGW is of course laughable. Or at least hope we humans can pump out enough to keep C3 plants from starvation as the climate gets colder during the next cycle phase.

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