Trouble Looming For Arctic Alarmists

Arctic sea ice coverage is nearly identical to 20 years ago

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Daily Arctic Sea Ice Maps

Arctic sea ice is following almost the exact trajectory of 2006, which had the highest summer minimum of the last decade.

PaintImage87

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Temperatures in the Beaufort Sea are forecast to remain below the freezing point through the first two weeks of the summer melt season

ScreenHunter_2039 May. 29 07.09

The Beaufort Sea is full of very thick ice.

ictn2015052818_2015060500_040_arcticictn.001

ictn2015052818_2015060500_040_arcticictn.001.gif (740×666)

Arctic sea ice is about the same thickness (2 meters) as it was 75 years ago.

ScreenHunter_7895 Mar. 13 12.22ScreenHunter_7896 Mar. 13 12.26

Papers Past — Auckland Star — 14 December 1940 — WARMER ARCTIC

Arctic sea ice is the thickest it has been in a decade.

Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst (3)

Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png (2488×1960)

Climate experts say the Arctic has been ice-free since 2013

ScreenHunter_2051 May. 29 08.15

PaintImage94 PaintImage92

Business leaders discuss climate – The Science Show – ABC Radio National (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

They have been making the same predictions for as long as anyone can remember.

PaintImage90

TimesMachine: October 19, 1958 – NYTimes.com

Climate experts have no idea what they are talking about, and they never did. There is no reason to believe that Earth is headed towards an ice-free Arctic.

About stevengoddard

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126 Responses to Trouble Looming For Arctic Alarmists

  1. Rico L says:

    Al Gore – What a donkey!

  2. rah says:

    Another Jim Hunt come on. You do like messing with him now don’t you? If the forecast turns out to be correct what will he do?

    Anyway it sure looks like the Arctic death tourists who have booked voyages for $22,000+ to transit the NW passage will once again be out of luck. No cocktails on the promenade while they watch polar bears drown are in their future for this year. It’s beginning to look like it may not happen in their lifetimes. Arctic holding on to ice while the Antarctic continues to set new records. Dismal times for the chicken littles.of our world. Oh well there is always next hurricane season.

    • Jim Hunt says:

      The Gish Gallop continues! Just for the record:
      1) Arctic sea ice coverage is currently NOT nearly identical to 20 years ago
      2) Arctic sea ice is currently NOT following almost the exact trajectory of 2006
      3) Arctic sea ice is currently NOT the thickest it has been in a decade in Ron’s beloved BCE
      4) Renowned Arctic sea ice expert “Steve Goddard” predicted last year that.”The minimum this summer will likely be close to the 2006 minimum, which was the highest minimum of the past decade”. That’s not how things eventually turned out!

      https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/08/01/my-arctic-forecast-4/

      • rah says:

        So Jim are you booked on one of those NW passage cruises?

        • Jim Hunt says:

          Nope – It’s far too much fun just sitting at my keyboard watching what goes on in here!

        • rah says:

          NSIDC can talk about mass balance all it wants. Until the predicted sea level rise occurs it is nothing beyond an academic exercise. If the terrestrial ice was losing mass then an increased rate in sea level rise is where it must show up. And it hasn’t! Everything in between is inconsequential to the rest of the globe.

        • AndyG55 says:

          Its fun trying to find the GUTS to admit that the Arctic sea ice area is probably abnormally high compared to the rest of the last 10,000 years.

          That loosing Arctic sea ice is not unusual nor a disaster, because its all happened before for most of the Holocene, and is the NORM for that area except in the really cold period that we have just come out of for a very short period of time.

          You will eventually find some honesty in your life.. .. nah.. I don’t see it happening.

      • Snowleopard says:

        Your allegations would be more interesting if you provided some evidence in their support.

        • Jim Hunt says:

          “Steve” has Gish Galloped away from all the evidence I’m afraid Snow. A brief pictorial overview can however be found at:

          http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/05/trouble-looming-for-the-arctic/

        • I bet you don’t refer to Orwell as “Orwell” when you are favorably discussing his contributions to knowledge and understanding. Isn’t this a double-standard?

        • Jim Hunt says:

          Richard – See: https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/who-is-steven-goddard/

          What’s “glancing” got to do with “heroes”? And no, incredible as it may seem I haven’t even glanced at whatever’s behind that button.

        • That sounds to me like an admission of a double-standard!

        • Jim Hunt says:

          Richard – Speaking of 1984 and double standards, please see:

          https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/03/23/life-in-the-orwellian-world/

          I don’t recall Tony mentioning the fact that DMI 30% threshold extent recently “shrank” to a new record low for the date, do you?

          It’s a tough job, but someone’s gotta do it!

        • AndyG55 says:

          Jimmy’s site is a propaganda CON site, put together with just that information needed to try to further his con.

          He leaves out information about the fact that the Earth has just warmed out of the coldest period for the last 10,000 year. and bases all his moronic scares about low Arctic sea ice levels on this slightly warming, while categorically REFUSING to admit that the rest of the Holocene would have had much lower Arctic sea ice levels, and was probably navigable for significant periods each year.

          Every time I bring up this FACT .. silence of the little lamb… crickets chirping.

        • Record based on what? I see on the page of yours you linked to that you’re one of the ones who denies the existence of satellite data pre-1979:

          “We’ve now got a bit over 30 years of satellite data, which is usually considered just about enough to determine a “climate” trend.”

          “A bit” over 30 years? What utter nonsense!

        • AndyG55 says:

          The Satellite data shows that there ZERO trend in atmospheric temperature, just a single step from the 1998 El Nino.

          The slight warming trend in RSS is cancelled by the slight cooling trend since.

          The ONLY way you can get a trend is to include that El Nino step.

        • AndyG55 says:

          “The slight warming trend in RSS is cancelled by the slight cooling trend since.”

          Should read…

          The slight warming trend in RSS prior to the 1998 El Nino is cancelled by the slight cooling trend since.

        • Jim Hunt says:

          Richard – Where exactly do I “deny the existence of satellite data pre-1979”?

          Amongst other things I’m currently in the middle of a discussion about Nimbus 5 versus Nimbus 7, except the other party seems to have gone off in a huff after I mentioned the word “Resolute”! Perhaps you would care to fill the gaping void?

          http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/02/the-telegraph-is-wrong-again-on-temperature-adjustments/#comment-210031

      • wizzum says:

        Bullshit Jim, Arctic ice was supposed to be all gone by now according to all your heroes.

        Post again when it is gone.

        • Jim Hunt says:

          Which heroes might those be Wizz?

          You know the drill? Please provide some credible evidence!

        • Jim, there is a button at the top of the page labeled “Ice Free Arctic Foreasts”, and I find rather uncredible this idea that you hadn’t already glanced at this.

        • rah says:

          I can’t provide evidence of who your “heros” are, but from your general bias, you do seem to be from the Al Gore school of climate “science”. Never once have I read you rejoicing when the many predictions of arctic melting that will result in catastrophic sea level rise have been proven to be false nor can I remember you criticizing those that made them after they turned out to be totally incorrect. Every post you make concerning the Arctic here it seems has to do with Arctic melting and I can’t remember a single one talking about the arctic gaining ice, which it has on balance since 2012. Nor have I seen a post from you about the record levels of antarctic ice gain which is a necessary contextual component when talking about the climatic effects of or on either pole and of course especially sea levels changes resulting from the expansion or contraction of terrestrial ice.

          And THAT is the real killer here. IF what you have claimed has been happening in Greenland for so many years was correct then we would be seeing the sea level rise. It isn’t. The rate of rise has remained well within normal historic limits.

          So to me your a such a focused “true believer” who is on a campaign who has self imposed blinders on .

        • Jim Hunt says:

          rah – QED?

          What I post here is data from the Arctic of one sort or another, with the occasional humourous aside!

          If you’re interested in sea level rise then you need to look at the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet, which has been conspicuous only by its absence from “Steve”/Tony’s recent prognostications. Here’s the NSIDC’s primer on the topic:

          https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/ice_sheets.html

        • darwin says:

          What you post is the only “evidence” climate fanatics have … fluctuating Arctic sea ice, especially since the Antarctic ice won’t cooperate.

          There is no other “evidence”. Just hysterical claims of doom, and well …. just plain lies.

        • darwin says:

          Also Jim, you understand the earth various systems are not static I hope (I’m actually not sure you do).

          For instance sea level … it cannot possibly stay static. It either increases or decreases. Glaciers either recede or grow … they do not remain static.

          Anyway, if you didn’t understand that hopefully you do now. That might explain your obsession with sea ice that varies every year

        • AndyG55 says:

          I notice that little Jimmy is STILL too cowardly to admit that he is basing the sea ice con on a pitifully short period at the end of a small climb out of the coldest period of the last 10,000 years

          Still refusing to admit that for most of the Holocene, Arctic sea ice levels would have been much lower because Arctic temperatures were 1-2 degrees warmer.

          Poor little Jimmy, has immense trouble facing the TRUTH.

        • Jim writes above,

          What’s “glancing” got to do with “heroes”? And no, incredible as it may seem I haven’t even glanced at whatever’s behind that button.

          If you glance at what’s behind the button, you’ll see a number of references to people who predicted the Arctic would be ice-free by now. Assuming of course that you have your eyes open, are able to read, and choose to do so. However, I gave you the benefit of the doubt on those three conditions, and just boiled it down to “glance”.

      • Jl says:

        Good, but you’re only half-way home, because no matter who’s right, the Arctic has lost ice before. So again, the fact that it is allegedly losing ice proves nothing as to why it may be losing ice.

      • Cowboy79 says:

        Um, No, Mr. Jim, you are quite mistaken in some of your comments.

        1) Wrong. http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=05&fd=25&fy=2006&sm=05&sd=25&sy=2015

        2) Rather than make an unfounded claim, provide evidence.

        3) See (2)

        4) See (2)

        So, prithee tell us all, will the Northern Passage be Ice Free this year or some other year? Please provide the warranty deed for your home and land in case you are mistaken.

        So, if your worldview is so invariably accurate, what reparations do you offer in the off chance that you are categorically wrong as proved by actual fact? The issue isn’t that the commoners are so ignorant. The issue is what do you, yourself, offer up, for being wrong? Have a Nice Day.

      • David A says:

        Jim, which of the above charts do you disagree with, and why?

  3. kentclizbe says:

    Clearly they did not homogenize the ice data correctly.

    On the bright side, government economists are learning from government “climate scientists” that their data needs to be homogenized, too!

    Since their predictions for the 1st quarter GDP were so far off, they’ve decided that it’s the model’s fault!

    Look for more homogenized economic data soon! Gotta fit the model, reality be damned!

    “They argue the GDP figure for the first quarter was held down by a confluence of temporary factors, including a problem with the model the government uses to smooth the data for seasonal fluctuations.

    Economists, including those at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, have cast doubts on the accuracy of GDP estimates for the first quarter, which have tended to show weakness over the last several years.

    They argued the so-called seasonal adjustment is not fully stripping out seasonal patterns, leaving “residual” seasonality.

    The government said last week it was aware of the potential problem and was working to minimize it.”

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-economy-likely-shrank-first-050330978.html

    • rah says:

      They’re just doing the same thing they did with unemployment figures not too long after this Administration came to power.

    • Snowleopard says:

      I think this may have begun decades ago by “redefining” the so called “cost of living” index to avoid paying increases to workers and retirees.

      It is approaching the point where we will be unable to use government data to discuss anything because it’s so corrupt as to be useless.

      • kentclizbe says:

        “It is approaching the point where we will be unable to use government data to discuss anything because it’s so corrupt as to be useless.”

        This is the politicization of anything the federal blob touches.

        The ruling elites’ philosophy is PC-Progressivism, which is based on lies–but all for the betterment of humanity, don’tcha know. So, it’s ok.

        So, they naturally feel justified in “homogenizing” data that they report:

        temperatures
        unemployment
        economic growth
        inflation
        health care
        hunger
        etc.

        “The US Department of Labor has launched an investigation into reports that some of the numbers in the government’s monthly jobs report – one of the world’s closest watched economic indicators – may have been fabricated in the run-up to the 2012 election.

        According to The New York Post, the issues center around the politically charged release of job figures towards end the 2012 presidential campaign. From August to September that year, the unemployment rate fell sharply, from 8.1% to 7.8%.”

  4. Ron Clutz says:

    It’s all about the ice and the water currents cycling on annual, decadal and multidecadal periods.
    If Beaufort, Chukchi and East Siberian Seas resist melting, the summer minimum will be like last year or higher.

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/05/26/climate-on-ice-ocean-ice-dynamics/

  5. sean2829 says:

    A lot of people believe that the arctic ice extent coincides with the cycles of the AMO. When it’s in the cold phase there is lots of ice, when it’s in the warm phase it declines. If the McCarthy et al. paper in Nature proves correct, there will be increasing arctic sea ice for the next 30 years.

    • rah says:

      Joe Bastardi seems to be among those that believes the AMO going negative (colder) results in increased Arctic ice.

  6. shazaam says:

    Will any of the “northwest passage” cruise lines traverse the passage in 2015? Or will they circle around one end and give-up?

    Will Reggie and his “Brawndo-Fueled Blowtorch of Ice Armageddon” make an appearance in 2015? (sadly, It seems Reggie and his famous Blowtorch suffered a series of unfortunate events in 2013 and 2014)

    I’m betting the media will declare many things about the arctic ice that have no basis in fact. As is now usual and customary for the US “Ministry of Truth”.

    • Frank K. says:

      “I’m betting the media will declare many things about the arctic ice that have no basis in fact.”

      When it comes to the subject of “climate change” in the MSM, facts don’t matter. Spin and obfuscation are the order of the day. Just wait until we have another big hurricane on the Atlantic coast (and odds are there WILL be at least one, maybe this year) – the deluded warmists will be out in force declaring that your SUV caused loss of life and billions in damage.

      That is the ONE thing that is predictable in all of climate “science” – the manic, insane reaction of the global warming advocates to a weather disaster!

      • omanuel says:

        Thanks to Steven Goddard’s keen intellect, courage and ability to communicate, the public are beginning to recognize consensus scientists, the National Academy of Sciences and formerly reputable research journals as self-centered, self-serving groups.

  7. omanuel says:

    The AGW debate is over, as are the reputations of scientists, the National Academy of Sciences and formerly respected research journals.

    AGW proponents lost the debate, but retained all the political power and all the federal resources used to promote this and many other scientific scams.

    The question is, “Why did/does our government use public tax funds to deceive the public?

    Nobody wants the answer: Stalin effectively won WWII and united nations [UN] and independent national academies of science [NAS] into an Orwellian Ministry of Consensus Science Truth on 24 Oct 1945:

    Click to access Introduction.pdf

    • cfgj says:

      So how come the planet is still warming up? Evidence: continuous rise of both global sea-level and temperatures of the oceans at depth. Where’s the “pause”?

      • hunter says:

        cfgj,
        You are denying the pause. Wow,

        • cfgj says:

          There’s only a pause in the lower troposphere, oceans have been warming up for the past 18 years with no pauses. Climate-skeptics try to avoid this issue, or they try to claim that the altimeter-record or the ocean temperature-record has been faked.

        • gator69 says:

          I see a pause in ocean temps. How much warming do you see since 1998?

        • AndyG55 says:

          Southern oceans are starting to cool. It is only the modelled SST that is climbing against reality.

          Gator, you need to look at the trend after the 1998 El Nino. That ocean energy-balancing release was the event that heralded the end of the slight warming from the series of strong solar cycles during the latter half of last century.

        • gator69 says:

          Hey Andy! I have viewed the real trend, and that is just one more reason why I am more concerned about starving children, than an imagined and manufactured climate disaster brought to us by the multi-trillion dollar climate change industry.

        • David A says:

          gator, interesting how the sst trend appears to be a close match to the satellite record.

        • Jim Hunt says:

          Here you go Andy. Play around to your heart’s content:

          http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/index3.html

          Anomalies and temperatures galore!

      • Snowleopard says:

        The only places the ocean is warming at depth are near volcanic vents and where warm currents descend, overall there is little change that can be determined with the sparse data we have.

        The “pause” is recognized by even the myopic UK Met Office and the IPCC. If you truly can’t see it, what else is there to say?

        • cfgj says:

          70% of the planet is covered by oceans and they are still warming up. No pause.

        • gator69 says:

          Really?

        • Jim Hunt says:

          Gator – Far be it from me to stick my nose into a “temperature” debate, but that appears to be an SST graph. Surely what you want is ocean heat content. Something like this perhaps?

        • gator69 says:

          How long have the ARGO buoys been around? And aren’t they still deploying them? You should know better Jim.

          Plus you have never answered me as to why you have never confronted Gore over his ridiculous alarmist statements made on a world stage. Your man crush on Tony is an embarrassment.

        • AndyG55 says:

          Little Jimmy the con bases all his scares on a pitifully short period.
          Love the way they use that heat content graph, without realising that it is a model output, because they CANNOT actually measure any change in temperature, and even with the model output, the change represented is in the third decimal place in degrees.

          The short period up to the peak of the current warming from the LIA has been highly beneficial, taking us back a short way to the warmer, more abundant MWP, RWP, and the rest of the Holocene

          Little Jimmy’s problem is that he lacks the honesty and integrity to admit that for most of the last 10, 000 years, Arctic temperatures have been higher, and that at the moment, Arctic sea ice levels are abnormally high.

        • AndyG55 says:

          Gator, Jimmy is either being paid or is a rabid masochist.

          He is now hooked, he cannot escape.

          All SG has to do is mention Arctic Ice and little Jimmy will come running to make even more of a fool of himself. Quite hilarious. 🙂

        • rah says:

          Jim NOAA information is always questionable these days. Do you really believe that 2014 was the warmest year on record? Provide another source if you desire to be taken seriously here. Especially when you are showing any graph from them that has any hockey stick appearance.

        • Jim Hunt says:

          rah – NOAA or not, it seems that Gator was being somewhat disingenuous in appearing not to understand that cfgj was referring to ocean heat content?

        • gator69 says:

          Speaking of disingenuous, Jim is back!

          Nobody knows what historical, or even recent ocean heat content was. It is another alarmist talking point.

          Hey Jim! What did Gore say when you confronted him over his use of a world stage to make ridiculous alarmist statements? Or is Tony your only man crush?

        • AndyG55 says:

          jimmy the conman……. calling someone else disingenuous…. so funny !

          Com on Jimmy, you wuss, admit that you are basing all your childish scares on a very short period of time at the end of a slight climb out of the COLDEST period in the last 10, 000 years… and that low Arctic sea ice is the NORM for most of the Holocene.

        • rah says:

          BTW. Gator, Glad to see you back posting again. Springs apparently keeping you busy.

        • gator69 says:

          Spring on the homestead is a very busy time for me, but not the only reason why I have not been posting here of late. I am back because I have once again realized that I have an obligation that I cannot ignore.

          If I refuse to act I am part of the problem, and if I refuse to join my brothers in speaking out against evil, I deserve no family. Truth is all that matters, and we are nothing if we do not defend it. The nutjobs and the useful idiots cannot be allowed to dominate the conversation.

        • AndyG55 says:

          A new paper .. missing heat is NOT hiding in the oceans 😉

          http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2015/05/new-paper-finds-18-year-pause-of-global.html

          “A new paper published in Ocean Science Discussions directly contradicts the claim that “90%” of the alleged “missing heat” from anthropogenic global warming has disappeared into the deep oceans below 2000 meters. This was, according to the authors, the favoured excuse (out of more than 70 ‘excuses’ at this point) for the “pause” or “hiatus” of global warming over the past 18+ years. “

        • AndyG55 says:

          The really stupid thing about that little graph of Jimmy’s is that in 1980, the ocean had ZERO heat content. !!!

          That’s what the graph says.. nothing about anomalies anywhere. ie it JUNK and meaningless

          Come on Jimmy, what is the current total heat content of the oceans?

          And no, far be it for you to talk temperatures (which your silly little graph doesn’t mention)

          You are way to scared to talk temperatures of the Arctic over the last 10,000 years.

          Keep running from the truth, little child. 🙂

      • rah says:

        I guess cfgj thinks that those climate “scientists” that have come up with about 70 different excuses for “the pause” are full of it?

  8. James Strom says:

    In the first graphic, what if anything is represented by the white coloration of land areas? It can’t be snow cover. The Great Lakes region, for example, can’t be covered in snow in late May.

    (I realize it’s not your map.)

    • Crashx says:

      Cryosphere Today, the maker of that graphic, has noted that it’s snow cover data is NOT updating and stuck on ~February 24th. You must ignore the snow cover and just compare the sea ice regions.

  9. Curt says:

    But the additional open sea area in the northwest Hudson Bay this spring is directly responsible for the flooding in Texas…

  10. omanuel says:

    The potentially serious consequences of lying for research funds is finally becoming obvious:

    https://malagabay.wordpress.com/2015/05/29/the-ice-age-is-coming/

  11. mikael says:

    In the North of Norway and in the North Eastern Russia, people have waited for this traffic for decades, the Northeastern rute thrue Artic, it havent happened.
    All thoe icebrakers and som few convios have managed to go thrue isnt new, that is a russian speciality, but even they have to use the bigg stick, to punch them selfs thrue, and the icebreakers are massive, nukl driven ones, hughe m..f….

    And I find is amusing that some expect the ice to behave as its “should do”.
    The other fact is the magnetic pole is drifting, giving minute local effect with conseuqnecess that will tipp the larger masses of cold air, anouf to alter the general wind direction as the Greenlanders talked about some years ago, it wasnt the temp they talked about, the old ones talked about the wind direction witch was different than usuall.
    I trust this people far more than some “expert” in an office builiding.

    I think it will be a slow process, 3-5 years and it will be considerably coulder, in the sub artic sone, its getting slowly back to good old times when even the piss froze on its way to the ground, I know what belov -40 is, do you.
    And that lasted for months.
    Before it dropped down to -30 and sometimes mutch hotter, like -20, that was like a mild someday, compared to the 40.
    WE are going to freeze our butts of.

    peace

    • AndyG55 says:

      Having the Arctic sea ice navigable, like it probably was for longish periods of each year during most of the Holocene before the LIA, would be of massive benefit to all those northern facing countries.

    • rah says:

      I think we’re probably talking about a period of time closer to a decade before the shift approaches is maximumeffect.

  12. AndyG55 says:

    Did anyone notice the post yesterday, The GLOBAL (It is meant to be GLOBAL warming iirc) sea ice level for this day is dead flat since 1978

    • cfgj says:

      That does not include thickness…

      • rah says:

        IOW your worried about volume, which warmists always are when the extent does not agree with what they have been predicting for decades now. But this last winter the amount of “old” ice in the arctic grew considerably over what it was the winter before. And old ice is generally thicker ice.

  13. rah says:

    Somehow it just seems kinda funny to be arguing about polar ice when even now Boston still has snow on the ground. http://bigstory.ap.org/article/412576a23114467ca93aba51c6dd678a/officials-say-those-boston-snow-piles-are-even-more-vile And Norhern Maine just set a record for snow this late in the season. http://iceagenow.info/2015/05/record-snowfall-in-caribou-maine/#more-16473 While the main east west road in Norway was blocked by snow last week: http://iceagenow.info/2015/05/video-main-road-between-west-and-east-norway/
    And northern Manitoba has winter storm warnings out today. http://iceagenow.info/2015/05/snow-for-northeastern-manitoba/#more-16478

    All of this while down south winter has come early and hard for New Zealand this year: http://iceagenow.info/2015/05/record-snowfall-in-many-parts-of-new-zealand/

  14. Cowboy79 says:

    @Jim Hunt: Your view of reality is truly ignorant. Educate yourself. Please.

  15. daveandrews723 says:

    Just for the record… polar bears are thriving in the Arctic. The Gore-inspired, mainstram media-driven claim that “global warming” is threatening their survival is absolute rubbish. But all the little school kids (and their equally naive parents) think they are going extinct.

  16. Caleb says:

    What interests me most about this post is the long-range forecast for below normal temperatures over the Beaufort Sea. (Not that you can trust long-range forecasts.)

    The GFS model makes it look like an easterly flow will move a lot of the cold air currently over the Pole, and along the north coast of Greenland, to the west, along the Canadian coast and finally to the Alaskan coast. The only sign I see of the cooling so far is that Buoy Bouy 2015B: has dropped from above freezing to -3.19° C, and O-buoy #12 (which is due north of Bering Strait and most likely to first feel the effects of the “warm” PDO), from above freezing to -5°.

    The buoy I’ll be watching is Buoy 2015A: , which is right on the coast of Alaska and effected by the sun-baked tundra just to its south. It’s camera is currently showing a lot of melt-water pools and temperatures are at +0.31°. If the camera starts to show the melt-water pools freezing over, then we’ll know the cold air has really backed west.

    Of course, if the Pole is robbed of all its sub-freezing air, temperatures will likely rise up that way. They may even get their first thaw of the year. In which case, where we will be asked to look? To the Beaufort Sea where unexpected freezing occurs? Or to the Pole where normal thawing occurs?

    • Jim Hunt says:

      Here you go Caleb. Your wish is my command, and your prediction has come true!

      I’m watching 2015A as well. Note that the temperature of the water underneath 2015A is currently only just below freezing point (of fresh water) and both surface and bottom melt have set in:

      http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2015-images/#IMB2015A

    • Caleb says:

      If you compare the 2015A picture taken on May 31, seen here:

      With the current picture, seen here:

      You can see for yourself if there is more open water or less.
      As of this morning, (June 3) there is less open water and the air temperature is below freezing at -0.34° at Buoy 2015A. http://imb.erdc.dren.mil/2015A.htm

      In other words, our host was not misleading us when he posted the information in the post, suggesting cold air was forecast to invade the Beaufort Sea area.

      Jim Hunt is misleading us, when he states “both surface and bottom melt have set in” at the very time a surface refreeze is occurring.

      Buoy 2015A is located at latitude 70.63° north, nearly 20 degrees south of the Pole. It is right on the coast of Alaska. Melt is normal in June. The melt is not news, but the refreeze is.

      • Jim Hunt says:

        You have a most intriguing view about this recent data Caleb:

        http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/05/trouble-looming-for-the-arctic/#comment-210143

        Can you not see all that recent surface melt, plain for anyone who clicks your link to see?

        • rah says:

          Too funny. So Jim you first post an image of a particular location showing melting and declare that it is evidence that melting is increasing. Then when Caleb shows that there is in fact new freezing at that very same location using an image from the very same camera from a few days later you aren’t happy about it and immediately respond with a graph without addressing the import of the image or admitting that you were wrong.
          No wonder you keep fishing for clicks to your blog.

        • AndyG55 says:

          Jimbo is trying to show us all that Arctic sea ice is heading back towards its normal condition of the last 10,000 years after an abnormally cold last few hundred years.
          You know , when the temperature was a couple of degrees warmer during most of the first 80% of the Holocene interglacial.

          That’s right, isn’t it Jimbo,

          come on, admit it. ! 😉

        • AndyG55 says:

          I clicked once. Never again

          What a load of propaganda BS and mis-information…..scaremongering and all.

          And nary a mention of the reality of the climb out of the LIA and the warmer prior 80% of the Holocene.

          Anyone would think he had an agenda.

          I wonder what trough he swills from. !!

        • Caleb says:

          The Mass Balance Buoy is the white sphere in the melt-water pool. They made them white to try to avoid a problem buoys had of making their own, private melt-water pools, by absorbing the sunlight. As luck would have it, this one wound in a melt-water pool anyway.

          The problem with sitting in a melt-water pool is that the buoy measures the thickness of the ice in a depression. The ice is obviously thicker all around the edges. In order to get a clear idea of the situation it is important to see both the thicker and the thinner.

          The problem with Mr. Hunt is that he only looks at the thinner, and has a blind spot regarding the thicker. Rather than assisting the cause of clarity, he tends to muddy the waters. Therefore I avoid his site.

        • rah says:

          Caleb says:”The problem with Mr. Hunt is that he only looks at the thinner, and has a blind spot regarding the thicker. Rather than assisting the cause of clarity, he tends to muddy the waters. ”

          Or IOW he is not objective and thus shows a distinct bias.

        • Jim Hunt says:

          rah/Andy – Are you two snow blind as well?

          The 2015A top sounder shows 22 cm of surface melt at the moment.

          See it?

          Caleb – Buoy 2015A is not the “white sphere in the melt-water pool”. It is in actual fact the “whiteish pole” in the melt-water pool. See it?

        • AndyG55 says:

          “The City of Exeter has one of the largest concentrations of climate scientists in the world ”

          Don’t know if Jimbo actually works there, maybe in Humanities as a janitor?
          But he sure has links to the climate tragics of the area.
          Brags about sending a song for Slingo…. yes seriously !!!

          No wonder he can’t find the guts or integrity to admit that for most the Holocene it was naturally warmer and almost certainly with less Arctic ice.

          His trougher buddies would crucify him 🙂

          And seriously Jimbo, when have I said I gave two hoots about a little bit of ice melting, back to normal Holocene levels ?
          I have in fact said that it would be highly beneficial if it did.

          Unfortunately , we have pretty much reached the peak of the NATURAL current slightly warmer period, and those northern countries are going to have to figure out how to cope with the more of the same abnormally high sea ice levels.

        • gator69 says:

          Jim fantasizes about climate change deaths, while real people die every day because zealots like Jim divert resources to a non-issue.

          Imagine if we put all the resources wasted on the Climate Change Industry into curing diseases and feeding people who struggle to survive day to day right now.

          About 21,000 people die every day of hunger or hunger-related causes, according to the United Nations. This is one person every four seconds. Sadly, it is children who die most often.

          Yet there is plenty of food in the world for everyone. The problem is that hungry people are trapped in severe poverty. They lack the money to buy enough food to nourish themselves. Being constantly malnourished, they become weaker and often sick. This makes them increasingly less able to work, which then makes them even poorer and hungrier. This downward spiral often continues until death for them and their families.

          http://www.poverty.com/

          That works out to 7,665,000 every year.

          But Jim loves ice, and not people.

      • Jim Hunt says:

        Andy – What has any of that got to do with whether or not Buoy 2015A is a ball or a pole, and/or whether it is currently reporting 22 cm of surface melt and a smidgeon of bottom melt?

        Since you ask, I’m not a climate scientist but given my current location on the planet I have spoken to a fair few.

        Gator – Are you deaf? If you bothered to listen to that song you would no doubt notice that it does in actual fact address the issues you raise, in a loud if taciturn fashion.

        • gator69 says:

          Jim, are you stupid? That video shows that you are assisting in the death of millions.

        • rah says:

          Jim what does Buoy 2015A being a ball or pole have to do with you being absolutely WRONG about the melting in that location.

        • Jim Hunt says:

          Gator – Assuming you’re referring to Lomborg, it shows nothing of the sort.

          rah – What’s WRONG about the graph displayed at:

          https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/05/29/trouble-looming-for-arctic-alarmists/#comment-525191

          It shows both surface and bottom melt, does it not? Hence my assertion that “both surface and bottom melt have set in” was accurate, was it not?

        • gator69 says:

          OK, you are stupid. Thanks for confirming my suspicions.

        • Caleb says:

          Mr. Hunt seems to like to haggle about parsing sentence structure, seemingly remaining oblivious to the fact that to respond to a comment about refreezing in the Beaufort Sea with “both surface and bottom melt have set in” creates the impression refreeze hasn’t and isn’t occurring. Then, when presented with photographic evidence refreezing did indeed occur, he doesn’t respond to the topic of the original comment, which was refreezing, but changes the subject to whether any “surface and bottom melt have set in.”

          Duh. How could it refreeze if it hadn’t melted?

          Besides refusing to address the topic being discussed, Mr. Hunt often makes snide comments about our host. I think it is very bad manners to walk into another’s house and be rude, especially when it is so obvious Mr. Hunt is using our host’s popularity to fish for viewers to his own site. Then he thinks it is humorous to state the only mistake he may make is to visit this site, which is rude to everyone who contributes here, especially the people who try to be civil.

          For Mr. Hunt to put on an innocent face reminds me of Miss Piggy, on the old Kermit the Frog shows, looking innocent and saying, “Moi?” Someone ought tell him, “Mr. Hunt, AKA “Snow White”, I watched the old Disney movie, and you are no Snow White.”

        • Jim Hunt says:

          Caleb – If you’d followed my link you would have discovered plenty of photographic evidence about what’s been going in the vicinity of 2015A.

          A commenter over at Great White Con Ivory Towers assures me an explanation based on said evidence has been sitting in our gracious host’s moderation queue for a few hours. I don’t suppose someone can look into it can they?

        • Jim Hunt says:

          Caleb – Since the comment I referred to yesterday is still missing in action perhaps I might take this opportunity to point out that careful examination of the ablation stakes in the two images you posted above reveal that the melt pond around 2015A drained considerably in the period between the two snapshots.

          I note that you still haven’t identified any “mistakes” I might have made that are in need of correction.

          Perhaps I might also take this opportunity to enquire why when I post a picture of 2015A surrounded by a dusting of fresh snow and exclaim “Your prediction has come true!” you feel the need to respond with “Jim Hunt is misleading us”? I also cannot help but wonder where the comments of Andy and Gator fall on your scale of “civility”?

        • gator69 says:

          Jim Hunt says:
          May 29, 2015 at 3:38 pm
          The Gish Gallop continues!

          Jim Hunt says:
          May 29, 2015 at 7:06 pm
          “Steve” has Gish Galloped away from all the evidence…

          Jim Hunt says:
          June 3, 2015 at 1:52 pm
          Gator – Are you deaf?

          Now that we have covered civility, let’s get back to your breathless advocacy for ice over humans.

          Jim, Lomborg put climate change at the bottom of the list of priorities, as did the Copengahen Consensus, and a panel of students. All of them advocated for caring for the poor, and all of them said climate change could wait.

          “There are many problems out there in the world. And what I want to make sure of is, if we actually focus on problems, that we focus on the right ones. The ones where we can do a lot of good rather than a little good. And I think, actually — Thomas Schelling, one of the participants in the dream team, he put it very, very well. One of things that people forget, is that in 100 years, when we’re talking about most of the climate change impacts will be, people will be much, much richer. Even the most pessimistic impact scenarios of the U.N. estimate that the average person in the developing world in 2100 will be about as rich as we are today. Much more likely, they will be two to four times richer than we are. And of course, we’ll be even richer than that.

          But the point is to say, when we talk about saving people, or helping people in Bangladesh in 2100, we’re not talking about a poor Bangladeshi. We’re actually talking about a fairly rich Dutch guy. And so the real point, of course, is to say, do we want to spend a lot of money helping a little, 100 years from now, a fairly rich Dutch guy? Or do we want to help real poor people, right now, in Bangladesh, who really need the help, and whom we can help very, very cheaply? Or as Schelling put it, imagine if you were a rich — as you will be — a rich Chinese, a rich Bolivian, a rich Congolese, in 2100, thinking back on 2005, and saying, “How odd that they cared so much about helping me a little bit through climate change, and cared so fairly little about helping my grandfather and my great grandfather, whom they could have helped so much more, and who needed the help so much more?”

          If you cannot grasp this you are stupid. If you grasp this and say it is not true you are a liar. I gave you the benefit of the doubt.

          Plus you have never answered me as to why you have never confronted Gore over his ridiculous alarmist statements made on a world stage.

        • AndyG55 says:

          Poor little Jimbo. Nobody takes kindly to dishonest con-men like you.
          You insult us with your very presence.

          You are so lacking in honesty and integrity that you STILL run and hide from the fact that Arctic sea ice loss is nothing unusual, and is in fact the norm over the last 10,000 or so years.

          You are just too much of a cowardly, slimy little worm to admit it.

        • Hey Jimbo, all the ice in the Arctic is melting, we all know, but we also know from studies of Antarctic sea ice that sea ice is caused by warming. Where are all you buoys and round balls in the Antarctic sea ice? Or maybe the ice in the Arctic is melting because it’s too cold up there. Did you ever think of it that way? It’s too cold for ice. It’s so cold the ice burns your skin and melts.

      • Caleb says:

        The Mass Balance Buoy is not the sphere. It is the Pole. http://imb.erdc.dren.mil/SeasonalIBinst.htm

        Above is an example of me confessing a mistake. Doing so corrects misconceptions, and It leads to greater clarity.

        Please examine Mr. Hunts comments, and see if you can find a single example if him ever confessing any sort of error. It is my experience that instead he will display remarkable haste and adroitness, in changing the subject. This is why he fails to clarify. His main usefulness is in always being the first to spot a thaw, (but the last to spot a freeze.)

        To return to the subject of Mass Balance Buoys being situated in the middle of melt-water pools. It does not matter if it is a pole or a ball. The danger remains it is measuring the level of the ice at the bottom of a pool, and not catching the higher (thicker) ice around the edges.

        Anyone know what the spheres are?

        • Jim Hunt says:

          Caleb – In answer to your final question, think you will find they are MetOcean Surface Velocity Program type B buoys (SVP-B for short)

          Please examine my comments carefully and then show me where I made a mistake. Not counting commenting here in the first place of course!

          As you say, the readings from an ice mass balance buoy aren’t necessarily representative of the surrounding area, but what other data of that sort do we have?

        • Hey Jimbo, all the ice in the Arctic might be melting, it’s true, but we all know from studies of Antarctic sea ice that ice is caused by warming.

        • rah says:

          I know such spherical buoys are used as the anchor buoys for some arrays. http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/MooringDiagram.html

      • Peter Ellis says:

        It’s not re-freezing. Look at the ablation stakes (the boards with red and yellow squares). In the top picture, looking at the stake on the left, you can see that the water level is just under the first yellow square. In the second picture, the level has dropped, and the second red square is exposed.

        That tells you what’s going on here – the melt pond is draining and exposing the ice that was previously at the bottom of the pool. If you carefully measure the white pole in the middle, you’ll see the same thing: the water level has dropped and more of the pole is visible. The sonar report is accurate.

        • Caleb says:

          I’m not sure why your comment from June 3 just popped up on my message board on June 26, but FYI there was a brief refreeze that occurred at that time. Hopefully a picture will appear below of the situation on June 5. After that the melt did resume.

          Sadly that camera has stopped reporting, and I can’t even access its library of old pictures. Likely it is some glitch they are working hard at fixing. However that ice, right by the snowless and sun-baked tundra of the Alaskan coast, has seen temperatures as high as +8° C recently, and there was more melt-water visible than ice. As best as I could tell there was still around a foot of ice at the bottom of the ice-water pools, but I was expecting the water to soon start draining down, when the camera stopped working.

  17. rah says:

    Oh calamities for the Alarmists continue to grow. We already know that the Polar Bears are doing just fine and not going extinct. Now it turns out that there is DNA evidence that indicates a Polar Bear species thought to have been extinct may still be walking the earth! http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/07/02/scientists-testing-for-sasquatch-actually-make-a-fascinating-discovery/
    “According to the study published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society, some of the samples were a 100 percent match to the DNA recovered from a more than 40,000-year-old Pleistocene fossil of Ursus maritimus. This finding, the study suggests, could mean that descendants this prehistoric polar bear could still be living in the Himalayas.”

  18. rah says:

    The Alarmists can all go home now and quite worrying, blogging, gnashing teeth, and waking up with nightmares. CAGW just isn’t going to happen.

    “Ice core data shows the much feared +2°C climate ‘tipping point’ has already occurred…” http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/01/ice-core-data-shows-the-much-feared-2c-climate-tipping-point-has-already-occurred/

    “The much vaunted and much feared “fatal” tipping point of +2°C would only bring Global temperatures to the level of the very congenial climate of “the Roman warm period”.

    If it were possible to reach the “potentially horrendous” level of +6°C postulated by Warmists, by the inclusion of major positive feedbacks from additional water vapor in the atmosphere, that extreme level would still only bring temperatures to about the level of the previous Eemian maximum.”

  19. mat says:

    I posted this to G+, and a guy rebuffed me by saying

    “If 99 people told you there was a lorry about to hit you, and one person said “no it isn’t” what would you do? Move to safety or stay where you are?”

    I sent him to this pic..

    • rah says:

      They always come up with stupid or misleading hypothetical questions or analogies when they can’t deal with the facts presented. Or, like Jim, do their best to change the subject or framing of the point being made.

    • It’s not 99 people. It’s 50 people say the truck is coming and 50 say it’s not, but 49 of the 50 who say it’s not are de-funded and stay home and 49 new ones who know nothing about trucks are sent to replace them, and told to agree with the 50 or lose their grant.

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