US Hurricane Frequency Plummeting

Cross posted from my new blog : US Hurricane Frequency Plummeting | Real Science

In the 19th century, the US averaged about two hurricanes per year. Now we average 1.5 per year

ScreenHunter_2141 Jun. 01 06.43 HURDAT Re-analysis 

The US is also experiencing the longest period on record without a major (category 3-5) hurricane strike. The last one was Wilma in 2005, which many experts declared as “the new normal”

ScreenHunter_2144 Jun. 01 06.56

Major hurricanes in the US peaked in 1950

ScreenHunter_2143 Jun. 01 06.50

I had dinner last night with one of the few people who actually understands hurricanes and climate – Dr. Bill Gray from CSU.  Look for the CSU 2015 hurricane forecast to be released today.

ScreenHunter_2147 Jun. 01 09.21

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26 Responses to US Hurricane Frequency Plummeting

  1. Frank K. says:

    I would expect, given the “law of averages”, that this year would see an increase in activity in the Atlantic. In any case, the MSM will be ready to jump on the “everything is caused by global warming” bandwagon when another big storm hits.

    • AZ1971 says:

      I would disagree simply because of official El Niño conditions tip the scale towards a low season. But paired with a declining solar output? Who knows what we’ll have.

  2. tabnumlock says:

    This is classic global warming theory, tho they haven’t mentioned it lately. Warming occurs more at the poles reducing the polar/equatorial heat differential that powers storms. Let’s hope this temp plateau holds up.

    • rah says:

      If that is “classic global warming” theory then why did so many climate “experts” and meteorologists claim that Hurricane severity would increase due to global warming?
      While agree with the concept that decreased contrast in temperatures between temperate and equatorial zones should decrease both the incidence and severity of tropical storms (and all other storms for that matter). That is not what I remember the head lines being at all!

      • catweazle666 says:

        “If that is “classic global warming” theory then why did so many climate “experts” and meteorologists claim that Hurricane severity would increase due to global warming?”

        Because like most/all climate “experts” they are not experts in the accepted meaning of the term and neither know nor care what they’re talking about, they are just paid to produce alarmist BS.

        • Elaine Supkis says:

          They are all claiming, including NASA and NOAA, that NO ONE can predict hurricane activity!!!!

          We should shut them all down if they are that ineffective! 🙂

      • tabnumlock says:

        The temp plateau left them with nothing to fret about so they just decided to say the opposite of what they had been saying about violent storms. No one seemed to notice.

    • John Smith says:

      “Let’s hope this temp plateau holds up.”

      one of the reasons I don’t like the warmists
      they seem desperate for warming to resume and use pretzel logic to argue there is no plateau … when it is GOOD news
      to them the possibility that Man is not destroying the planet is unacceptable
      we are sinners
      no doubt they’re hoping for a couple destructive hurricanes to reinvigorate the religion

      • catweazle666 says:

        “to them the possibility that Man is not destroying the planet is unacceptable”

        They are without exception extremely mendacious, unpleasant people, as is clearly demonstrated by the ones that crop on here occasionally.

        • John Smith says:

          just to clarify
          I agree with tabnumlock
          hoping for the temp plateau to continue is a good thing

      • Gary H says:

        Current problem is that Obama and his minions (inc the national mainstream media) are either oblivious to, or just out and out fabricating the view that the hurricanes just continue to get worse.

        Sadly, the last thing the MSM is about to do is invite real scientists, like Gray and Landsea, on for intelligent and accurate discussions.

  3. rah says:

    If I were you I wouldn’t take any bets on that increase in Atlantic Hurricane activity. Everyone seems to be predicting a lower than normal incidence this season because there is simply too much cold water in the mid Atlantic. Joe Bastardi explains it here: http://www.weatherbell.com/2015-hurricane-forecast and NOAA’s forecast pretty much agrees with his for the little that is worth: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/20150527-noaa-hurricane-outlook-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-is-likely-this-year.html

    And nothing from the Atlantic is going to happen until this massive Bermuda High move on.

  4. Andy DC says:

    Satellites now pick up “hurricanes” at places like 40N and 40W, which in earlier times would be considered extratropical or even ignored if they were short lived. Plus the National Hurricane Center determines what qualifies as a hurricane and given their agenda, what used to be a strong tropical storm or extratropical storm could easily now be classified a hurricane. Thus it is very surprising that the frequency of hurricanes has deceased in light of those factors.

    • rah says:

      North Atlantic tropical storms for the last 15 years:
      1999- 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 major (Major= Cat 3+)
      2000- 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major
      2001- 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major
      2002- 12 named storms, 4 hurricanes, 2 major
      2003- 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major
      2004- 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 major
      2005- 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, 7 major
      (Note: 2005 was a record year in ALL categories)

      2006- 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major
      2007- 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major
      2008- 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 major
      2009- 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 major
      2010- 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, 5 Major
      2011- 18 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 4 Major
      2012- 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 2 Major
      2013- 13 named storms, 2 hurricanes, 0 Major
      (First time since 1994 with no major hurricanes)
      2014- 8 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 Major

  5. rah says:

    Oh BTW, both hurricanes of 2013 seasons were very weak CAT 1s And Humberto was only 3 hours short of being the latest initial Hurricane of any season for the entire record.

  6. inMAGICn says:

    As a kid, I was in Tidewater Virginia for both Hurricanes Carol and Hazel in 1954. The former brought winds and floods that were impressive enough, but the destruction after the latter was something I still vividly remember, especially massive old trees not just uprooted but many still upright but shredded as if by gigantic hands. And CO2 was….what?

  7. Zebo says:

    i’m pretty sure the hurricanes got absorbed by the evil oceans the same way they already absorbed the heat that went missing to prove global warming

  8. rah says:

    As usual for the Old media with it’s shrinking relevance and credibility, they try to not inform the public when the facts don’t support their views. Here we see Seth Borenstein do his very best to hide the fact that over all Hurricane incidence and severity has been declining. Focusing instead on the fact the US hasn’t had a major strike in Nine seasons and quoting that is just a matter of “luck”.

    AP’s Borenstein Notes No Hurricanes for 9 Years; Didn’t Global Warming Alarmists Say There’d Be More? http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blumer/2015/05/31/aps-borenstein-notes-no-hurricanes-9-years-didnt-global-warming

    • inMAGICn says:

      Well, in a sense, it IS “luck.” You can have a lot of hurricanes that don’t hit the US in a season, or a just a few developed that yet do hit. And anything in between. The problem is that you cannot predict the outcome of any given hurricane season. Yet, we get those portentous admonitions and warnings out of various agencies and ivory towers that state such-and-such number of storms are “predicted” to make landfall. Even if predicated on percentage possibilities, the media will inevitably take the worst-case scenario and shriek
      bloody murder.

      • rah says:

        Pretty sad that those that believe the claims that it can be predicted what the climate and some types of weather will do in years to come have to use the word “luck” to explain why the US hasn’t had a major strike in 9 years. Especially when some, not all by any means, indorsed the view that human caused climate change would increase the incidence and/or severity of hurricanes.

  9. smamarver says:

    Well, major hurricanes have also took many lives and led to many destruction, so that’s a good news. Let’s not forget the human intervention and the fact that this one can also influence climate. There are so many examples in the past 150 years of human intervention on the ocean, leading to climate change….. Some of them are here: http://www.seaclimate.com/a/a3.html.

    • Neal S says:

      Wouldn’t it be nice if that web page had some means of contacting the author.

      In the second para ” has indorsed this view” -> “has endorsed this view”

      • smamarver says:

        Neal S, I hope that that will help you; after a bit searching website impressums, try to
        contact the author Dr. Bernaerts by surface mail “Bordesholmer Str. 14a, DE-22143 Hamburg /Germany. It’s all I could find…..

  10. Brian H says:

    Save us from The Cool, CO2!

    • AndyG55 says:

      I suspect that over the next few decades mankind is going to wish that CO2 really did have some warming effect.

      Unfortunately, No !

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