My NOAA Climate Forecast

I forecast that NOAA will lie about May 2015, and claim it was the warmest on record – even though it wasn’t even close.



About stevengoddard

Just having fun
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12 Responses to My NOAA Climate Forecast

  1. ren says:

    Australian Summary: Cool westerlies in the wake of a front is bringing a few light showers over southwest WA. A high is slowly moving over the southeast bringing settled conditions, but another cold and frosty night across TAS, VIC, NSW and QLD.
    Snow Forecast: The official start to the season is now only a few days away.

    The ski fields are looking great, with lots of snow under the cool winter skies.

    A weak front will sweep across on Thursday night/early Friday morning to give the snowy playground a little top-up before the guests arrive. The sun will come out for the first official day with light winds. During Sunday and Monday the winds will become a little more gusty.

    A weak front arriving early next week will add a few more flurries. The big and seemingly-elusive front carrying another mountain of snow that we are eagerly waiting for is still a while off.
    Issued Wednesday 16:53

  2. Dave G says:

    That’s not even worth betting on. It’s a sure thing.

  3. Ben Vorlich says:

    This is why you’ll never see a bookmaker cycling to work. (Sorry Steve my Dad when warning against gambling used to say “You’ll never see a Bookie on a bike”)

  4. LeeHarvey says:

    Pure curiosity speaking, here –

    What’s with the big dropout in western China?

    • NavarreAggie says:

      I brought this topic up a while back, and I seem to recall the issue is the predominance of snow and ice in the area interfering with the measurement (see the polar regions). Don’t forget that this particular area is home to the Himalayan Mountains.

  5. Dave G says:

    I’ve started molesting the site threw its commments section. Throwing up GiSS older charts versus their newer charts showing how…
    1. They erased all the global cooling from 1940-1975… and then after they erased that, how they have still almost doubled the warming since erasing that.

    Nobody has an intelligent reply…

  6. DD More says:

    I speculate that NOAA intended to quietly rewrite climate history over two programming runs (2011 and 2014). Each would lower historical temperatures a total of approximately 130°F. I speculate that computer programming errors were discovered internally by NOAA after the 2011 algorithm was launched. NOAA decreased the 1913 HDD by 10% as opposed to increasing it by that amount. NOAA made 1913 one of the hottest years in Maine’s history. They eventually corrected that error and others with their 2014 algorithm run. I was not the first to catch this major faux pas. Joseph D’Aleo, did a paper in 2014, involving Farmington, Maine data in southern interior Zone 13. The title of his effort was “Data Set Changes Makes It Hard to Tell Real Story” [10]. He complained of a 5°F swing in 1913 for NOAA’s southern interior data. In my April study, I had detected a 4°F swing for 1913 based on statewide archived NOAA data.

    – See more at:

    Covers data for Ohio and Tennessee also. This is Heating Degree Days so NOAA is trying to get all the data sets.

  7. Dave G says:

    Wonder what they have been doing with the “Growing Degree Day” data?

  8. Billy Liar says:

    Here is my confident prediction. In 10 years all these warmest evah years will be much colder. Just look at 1998 now, it’s hard to believe that once it was the warmest evah. Well done NOAA! Keeping the dream alive.

  9. weatherguru says:

    I forecast it’ll take 1.4 seconds to compute an average of temperatures and 2 weeks to run the adjustments.

  10. Brad says:

    Survey says……third. Don’t worry, June will be the hottest EVER!

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