The Arctic melt season has essentially ended, nearly a month early. 30% concentration ice is just below the 2006 minimum
15% concentration ice is almost at the 1979-2000 mean
Cold air has spread across the Arctic
Experts said the Arctic would be ice-free by now. Instead of retracting and apologizing for their unnecessary and mindless alarm, these criminals simply dig in deeper with their lies and fraud.
The End of the Arctic? Ocean Could be Ice Free by 2015 – The Daily Beast
Gore: Polar ice cap may disappear by summer 2014
BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013′
He said the ice cap “may” disappear. He was giving his permission.
Yea, and I “may ” hit the Megamillions lottery Friday. Can I have permission for that? I play every great once in awhile just to keep the daydream alive even though my odds of hitting it are only slightly better than the prognostications of those alarmists coming to pass.
Actually, I think your odds of winning the lottery are much much better. And if it’s of any value to you, you certainly have my permission to win.
You may win, rah. I give you my permission, too.
My permission as well. Please remit 15% of your winnings to my Nigerian bank account.
I remember when “SCIENCE, proved,with mathematical models,
that a bumblebee, absolutely could not fly.The science was
settled, no one could disprove the math, any who disputed
the results was labeled a “DENIER”.When a bumblebee was
shown to fly, it was not believed, until finally it was
seen to be true. But it took time. It is my hope that the
“pause” is a modern day”bumblebee”. Maybe actual observations
will convince where logic fails.
Another famous failed science prediction…
Can We Ever Fly Faster Than Sound?
A seemingly impassable barrier blocks the way to higher plane speeds. Can we hurdle it? Our aviation editor gives his views.
By C. B. COLBY
Drawings by STEWART ROUSE
DESPITE glowing newspaper reports, man cannot now fly at the speed of sound. In fact it is doubtful, according to the best authorities, that man has ever closely approached sonic speed (764 m.p.h, at sea level and 664 m.p.h, at 40,000 feet), let alone attain or exceed it. Speeds of over 500 m.p.h, in level flight are a serious challenge to design and power-plant engineers. Even in a terminal-velocity dive (straight down with all stops open), it is doubtful that any pilot has attained the speed of sound.
On Star Trek they were going Warp 8, and my wife told me it’s impossible to pass the speed of light. I said that’s bunk, how do you think Spock’s parents were able to date from different planets and had no complaints about long distance relationships.
Vulcans aren’t allowed to complain.. 😉
Of course the only real “barrier” was in some peoples minds. A talented test pilot with “The Right Stuff” backed by a few talented engineers with the same proved that just three years after that article was published. And what is really amazing is that 60 years later Yeager was still breaking it! http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2012/feb/18/chuck-yeager-still-flying-high/
The key, as it was with the Wright Brothers, was controlled flight. The X-1 was modelled after a .50 caliber bullet which, like all high-velocity loads, went past the “sound barrier.” In manned flight, it has been hypothesized that the P-38, in uncontrolled and, unfortunately, fatal dives, may have exceeded mach 1.
Based on what I have read about the compression problem with the P-38 and P-47, the aircraft was in pieces before it got going that fast. A few of the pilots that actually survived did so by allowing the aircraft to go full inverted. At Mach 1 if that had happened they wouldn’t have been alive to talk about it even if by some miracle the aircraft held together.. On my Kindle is the book “”Forked Tail Devil” and chapter 4 titled “The Phantom Hand” covers the compression problem with surviving pilot accounts, the attempted fixes, and the spoilers that finally ended the problem.
The P-38 is my favorite aircraft of all time and I think it and it’s maker Lockheed have gotten a little bit of the short end of the stick in some publications about WW II aviation. It was an aircraft well ahead of it’s time as demonstrated by the fact that it was the ONLY US fighter aircraft in front line service before Pearl Harbor that was still in front line service with the US at the end of the war and the two highest scoring US aces of the war flew it and each compiled a considerable amount of their scores when the Japanese still had some of their best pilots flying. It is a shame that so few flying examples exist today. It is one of rarest of the US WW II birds.
rah , I believe one of best US Fighters of WWII was the F4U Corsair… the first single engine American Fighter to exceed 400 mph in level flight. Of course, later in the War they were very highly tuned, supercharged and running on an alcohol mix; the Japanese had nothing that came close to it. Early on, it was difficult to land on Carriers. I recall some claim, that these F4U Corsair’s approached Mach 1 in a dive.
Frank K. : Excellent example in the way Science has misinformed society… not only was the future wrongly predicted ; the standing for that year was questionable.
During the latter years of WW II , the Germans were using Rocket and Jet powered aircraft with some degree of swept wings. We know that the V2 Rockets exceeded the speed of sound, many of the tests with other rockets were developed with “test pilots”, despite the death of some at speed in the development thereof.
Even conventional Jet Fighters, had likely exceeded Mach I : Hitler’s Test Pilots including Hanna Reitsch flew almost everything including rocket planes and we knew she flew the Fi-103 cockpit version of the flying bomb and test dived the Me 262 long before 1944, (at some point it’s reasonably certain , Mach I was exceeded in a dive).
What we do know, as absolute fact : the United States downplayed achievements by the Nazis – what the Third Reich accomplished. It’s highly likely that by Oct 1944, the Germans had already surpassed the speed of sound; possibly by a female test pilot.
The Wright brothers are perhaps the best example of science; they wanted to fly– they
studied the “consensus “, and built gliders to test the data. That almost killed one
of them, he remarked” I know now what killed Lilienthal”.They found the consensus
was wrong,then started from scratch, ( built a wind tunnel), they were needing good data
and found they had to get it themselves, They made a propeller from their data that was
as efficient as any made now. Langley followed the consensus, and splashed his plane
into the river. Consensus doesn’t work, and might get you killed. Their example sadly
is not having much attention today..
The engine for the Wright Flyer was also custom built because they couldn’t find any available that had the necessary power to weight ratio.
No lesser authority than Ted Danson decreed the world would spontaneously combust in 1995. Why do you climate deniers still exist, I don’t understand.
I remember that. How is Ted doing these days? Shivering?
There are few things in life that get better and better with time. But being a sceptic is one of those. As each month passes we see yet another stupid – no fraudulent – prediction failing and others looking more and more ridiculous.
The reality is that even most greens and warmists have jumped off the global warming bandwagon – mostly silently, leaving just a rump core group of climate extremists to keep dragging the wheel-less wagon on and on and on and on.
(But in that rump core of extremists are government leaders and regulators – the people in charge.)
Well the AMO is going cold. If things go as expected the PDO will shift cold in 7 to 10 years and solar activity will still be down. If that all happens, and I suspect it will, that wheel-less wagon they’re dragging will be so heavy they won’t be able to move it anymore. No amount of data manipulation will be able to alter reality for even the least head strong and unaware among us.
And Obama’s and the greens war on coal will be forgotten in the news even as the poorer on fixed income die during the winter due to their inability to buy enough energy to keep warm. We are going to go the same way things have gone in the UK but the death toll will probably be substantially higher here I suspect.
I had an ancestor die of cold in a cabin in Maine. He wa urged to come down to Oxford where he wouldn’t freeze, but he insisted he had to stay and there would be no problem with heat as he had a mountain of wood to burn.
He also broke his leg, apparently gathering some, and died.
Between Obama care and restricted and expensice energy, think of the many who will not survive this maligant regime.
True, but as I’ve stated previously, let them desperately tamper with the data until it either becomes an impossible vertical line (Hockey Schtick anyone?) or they’re.. ahem.. “recording” temps in excess of 50C where it’s either impossible (Alaska?) or residents call them out on it. CAGWists have already made fools of themselves on astronomical scales and, as history attests, it’ll only get bigger.
Pass the popcorn.. 😉
Now they are saying they need 50 years to see if the warming has stopped…
….but only 20 years to know what’s normal for the Arctic
I hate this normal crap….Apr and May of every year the lines are bunched so close together you can’t even tell them apart…..that’s normal
Still NSIDC showing Arctic loses of 348000sq km a day,it is criminal what is going on.
And normal over what period of time.??
The Arctic was basically ice free in summer for most of the first 2/3 or more of the Holocene.
Its the massive amounts of summer ice sea, a remnant from the LIA, coldest period in the last 10,000 years, that is abnormal. !!
Not shown on your temperature chart, but
H/T to NoTricks
The first thirteen weeks of summer this year have been the coldest in Reykjavik in over twenty years, reveals Icelandic meteorologist Trausti Jónsson.
The northern city of Akureyri fares even worse – one has to go back around thirty years to find a colder summer. Last year was Akureyri’s warmest summer in 67 years.
Summer in Reykjavik has not been this cold since 1992, although the summer of 1979 was by far the coldest. The warmest summer in Reykjavik in the past 67 years was in 2010.
Summer in Akureyri has not been this cold since 1983.
Check out the weather forecast for your part of Iceland on Iceland Monitor
The Antarctic has set multiple ice extent records which resulted in global sea ice extent records two out of the last three years and the also set an all time recorded low temperature in that time.
We’re in a solar minimum that is forecast to last for more than one cycle.
Growing ice in the Arctic and extended winters in Greenland and Norway.
Hmmm. Must be climate change!!!
Antarctic sea ice seems to have dropped quite a bit this year , though.
Not that it matters.
It is the double peak maximum of solar cycle 24 that we’re in right now, and that in itself is the worst news for the warmistas 😉
The SC 24 minimum and SC25 Maximum could be down right inhospitable to most creatures…
We’re on the downside and past the twin peaks in 24 now.
Hmmm. Must be climate change!!!
yes, the climate is changing.
It does not look like much
i.e. ca. – 0.009 x 14 = -0.13K
yet it seems people are beginning to notice the difference?
Over towards the boundary between the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, where the ice is broken up and floating with seawater between the bergs, the sea water is skimming with ice as temperatures drop to -3.0° in the “warm” part if the afternoon, as reported by O-buoy 12. It is fascinating to me that the cold air keeps appearing with the PDO warm. The ice could still melt from below I suppose, but I never expected this sort of cold in early August. My forecast was a complete bust.
Sure looks like another cold one coming for us folks east of the Mississippi this year. I think if these winters keep going the way they have been or worse, I’m going to need a raise!
Especially if the heating costs go up!
We have our heating cost well under control at our house. It’s well insulated with mostly new high quality argon gas filled windows and a good gas furnace and wood burning fire place.
But the fact is I go back and forth between Indiana and points in the east more during the winter than during any other season. Some so called truck drivers at the company I work for (we call them “snow babies” and some worse things) watch the weather and either refuse loads going where the snow is flying or call off of them after they committed to take them. That’s when my phone rings telling me to go, usually on very short notice. Usually if the snows a flying east of the Mississippi there is a good chance I’ll be driving.
I need to work on the insulation of my drafty old house, which is 250 years old. New Hampshire has a lot of old houses, and it is estimated the state could use 30% less power if we insulated our homes better.
The main part of my house was built in !944 with two additions added in the 50s. You just don’t find many houses dating back to the Revolution in Indiana and none in the county I live in. Heck, even graves dating back to then are few and far between. We have 8 known Revolutionary war veterans that were buried in my county but not even all of their final resting places have been found nor will they be I imagine because I was part of team that tried to locate them.
No no no..
You’ve got it wrong! All climate scientists say otherwise (I won’t name them because I can’t) and you’ll be toasty warm because they fudged the figures to make sure you are.
Energy’s available to you but it’s not necessary as per the above and, it’s not the scientists’ fault that prices have gone up because they didn’t ask for that.
If you’re cold at night, go outside and warm up in the sunshine. Obummer said he’d make it mandatory for the Sun to be out at night, which is why solar panels are such a great investment (remember that solar farms in Spain were making electricity at night back in 2010?). Obummer said he invented that technology and is pledging that the US will have it soon.
If you’re cold at night, go outside and warm up in the Back-Radiation. 😉
You can never be a genuine climate scientist by admitting you are wrong! But I do admire your honesty and all of your interesting factual reports.
have a +1 from me on that.
The PDO, MEI and AO are only three entities effecting the icecap, and the jetstreams always being closer to the surface at the planets poles than at equatorial regions make the transportation of air currents (water vapor and temperatures) variable. The jet steam heights, currents and speeds vary drastically over cyclical timeframes and presently are not as forceful in the northern hemisphere.
The multiple excursions/phase shifts that occur in the oceans (NAO, AMOC, IO Dipole, AO, Antarctic Stream & others) have cyclical drivers and the sooner we understand their behavior as they’re coupled with natural forces IE: our Star’s cyclical output, cyclical inner planetary excursions, changes exhibited in the outer magnetospheric planetary layer, coupled and transformed energy right through each of the six upper atmospheric shells right down to the lower troposphere and into the core. The interactions, internal and external, incoming and outgoing are not understood, yet we’re told to quit debating the almighty thermostat called C02!
Argon may be a greater contributor to planetary temperature changes as a stimulus as it mixes from the tropopause on down…
Geo scientific studies are always best when we’re actually looking for answers to the unknown!!!
Thank you, Steven aka Tony, for documenting Big Brother’s defeat by REALITY of the Divine Force used in the Creation, Destruction & Preservation of atoms, lives and worlds in the solar system five billion years (5 Ga) ago !
NEUTRON REPULSION was hidden from the public seventy years (1946-2015) ago, after destroying the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Click to access Solar_Energy.pdf
NEUTRON REPULSION in the core of the Sun was Kuroda’s assurance that worldwide human tyranny would fail.
Click to access The_Begining_of_the_World.pdf
With kind regards,
Oliver K. Manuel
weird how there are two opposite universes on arctic ice
from my foxhole, the other side puts up rhetoric and hyperbolic doomsday talk
this side puts up a lot more detail
can’t recall seeing a buoy photo on a warmist site
hard not to have a ‘conspiracy ideation’ view since they appear to be lying
plus Tony is so right about the media ignoring the EPA screwing up and turning the Columbia river yellow
Toto, maybe you should bite the wizard’s leg
pulling back the curtain doesn’t seem to be enough
Just wait. 😉
Now we will be told just how much the ice is melting. Ignore what you see, the study will tell us.
Could this be another turkey boat ?
One sincerely hopes to see them stuck in sea ice, endure a bit of panic and humiliation, then get rescued in an embarrassing fashion.
Chris Turkey may even be on it ; he likes making a fool of himself…
In the lead up to Paris, it will be very interesting to see how much the NASA/Cyrosphere Arctic sea ice data starts to diverge from DMI and other data, particularly if the current cold spell up there lasts for a few weeks and melt basically stops for the year. !
nsidc currently displaying extent from another planet by the looks of it.
The nearer that middle grey line we end up in September, the greater will be the desperation from the AGW scammers.
It will certainly be fun to watch them if it gets close to that “average” line. 🙂
They can’t justify their inflated figures as more ice builds up, no matter if they say they predicted it, records indicate they didn’t. It was always melting according to them.
What gets me are the number of climate zealots that don’t check current satellite images, charts, temps and other apparently important (and free) data before they venture up to the North Pole, complete with sunscreen and surfboard, then having to be rescued just days later.
Even though that posthumous information that they had to be rescued because they were dead wrong thanks to the Goreacle et. al., is freely available everywhere, others blindly follow in their footsteps.
Sadly, we haven’t progressed since the Dark Ages. It’s morons like these that are holding civilisation back.
CAGWists: Listen up.. NO MORE RESCUES! You’re polar bear food now.
At O-buoy 12 this morning the winds swung around 180° and our drift to the west shifted to the east, which apparently created elbow-room and allowed the bergs to spread out. For a time this morning there was nothing but open water in sight, so I expected the temperature to rise to the temperature of the water, which typically happens, but rather than rising to roughly -1.5°C the temperatures dropped to -4°C, which made me look like a bad forecaster, and also caused me to stir up my dandruff. For the life of me I can’t figure out where the cold is coming from. (I was tempted to blame a solid expanse of ice out of sight, directly behind the camera.)
What it means is that all the open water you can see in this picture is being chilled at a time it theoretically should be being warmed. Not that the sun could do much warming, even if it wasn’t cloudy. Because it is just past midnight local time, and we are down at 77.5° latitude, the sun is so low on the horizon that water reflects radiation as well as the ice does, unless the water’s chop is very rough, which it isn’t, with winds at 2 mph. Conclusion? Beaufort Sea is being chilled as we watch.
But aren’t these extent graphs and not mass graphs? The warmist theory is that the mass in shrinking from all over, not that the edges are becoming ice free first.
Check out http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php…
Am I wrong? What am I missing?
many here are still clueless as to what climate change [global cooling,
really means for us.
in the relevant solar cycle we are here:
So what happened 5 years later?
The Dust Bowl drought 1932-1939 was one of the worst environmental disasters of the Twentieth Century anywhere in the world. Three million people left their farms on the Great Plains during the drought and half a million migrated to other states, almost all to the West.
you [don’t] ask: why droughts from global cooling?
Predictably, there would be a small (?) shift of cloud formation and precipitation, more towards the equator, on average. At the equator insolation is 684 W/m2 whereas on average it is 342 W/m2. So, if there are more clouds in and around the equator, this will amplify the cooling effect due to less direct natural insolation of earth (clouds deflect a lot of radiation). Furthermore, in a cooling world there is more likely less moisture in the air, but even assuming equal amounts of water vapour available in the air, a lesser amount of clouds and precipitation will be available for spreading to higher latitudes. So, a natural consequence of global cooling is that at the higher latitudes it will become drier.
All of this happening whilst the sun is getting brighter….and brighter….
Well not quite “spotless”
A couple of good links on sunspots:
1. cooler atmosphere and oceans = less evaporation, 2. a significant amount of water vapor gets locked up in sea ice, glacier ice, and high elevation snow and ice. I think are the main reasons that aridity(primarily in lower latitudes) accompanies periods of glaciation. The Roman warm period saw more greenery in the Sahara and Middle East, some evidence of this is the Roman bridges that now span dry riverbeds. But during glacial epochs, yes the whole global climate system is drier than during warm periods.
1) agreed, less evaporation (less UV going into oceans due to higher ozone, peroxides, & others TOA)
2) sublimation of H2O? not so sure
But during glacial epochs, yes the whole global climate system is drier than during warm periods.
We agree that global cooling causes less clouds and precipitation at higher latitudes?
I was watching a little history on Oklahoma on TV. They said that 1/2 the population of that state moved away during the dust bowl and most of those that moved went to the three states bordering the Pacific. But some of those that toughed it out became pretty wealthy in the years following.
the shortage of food led to hyper inflation in Europe
and the subsequent rise of the anti-christ (hater of Jews)
I think there was more to it than that Henry. Two name a couple of big ones: A world wide depression. Excessive levies for compensation for “war damages” placed on Germany through the treaty of Versailles article 231. But there were other factors too like the very nationalistic nature of the Germans themselves and their continued belief, despite their defeat in WW II, that they were a superior people.
History demonstrates that through the 19th and 20th century there was some truth to the old adage that if you don’t step on a Prussians neck they will be at your throat.
Here’s another one:
Hell has been described as a place where the British are the cooks, the French are the politicians, and the Germans are the police.
Sorry that should have been “despite their defeat in WW I”.
seems to me the latest picture of the sun on the solar page of WUWT of 13.08/2015 is spotless?
naked eye spotless- http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/hmi_igr/1024/latest.jpg
the irony is to see the opposites at work:
the sun is really at its “hottest”
yet earth is defending itself :
by cooling down
– ultimately really –
to protect you.
Isn’t that something?
GOD is good.
sorry, I am not much of an economist/
in those days the world was not globally connected
but I am wondering- that in the case of the 1930’s –
if the roots of deflation (USA) and inflation (Europe) are not the same or similar?
It was more connected than you think. Did you know that the some of the largest of the oil refineries bombed at Polesti during WW II were American owned.
This is a totally cool picture of stage one sea-ice becoming stage two sea-ice. It belongs in a sea-ice textbook.
During stage one the water starts to look oily, because, rather than the chilled surface saltwater sinking because (unlike fresh water) cold surface saltwater sinks, right down to the freezing point, instead microscopic icebergs start to form, and every sea-ice geek knows ice floats on water, even if it is microscopic.
During stage two these tiny particles start to coalesce into slushy islands called “pancakes,” and bunches of these join together to form “pancake ice”. This is slow-growth-ice, and different from flash-freeze-ice.
In the picture below we look at an area of salt water beyond sea-ice closest to us. The skim of ice closest to us, in that water, is lateral growth and more like flash-freeze-ice. However beyond that is water that, at first glance, seems merely dappled by ripples caused by the wind. If you look more carefully you see those are not ripples; they are little “pancakes.”
What blows me away is that this is not a picture from the very cold water north of Greenland. This is from the supposedly warmer waters of the Beaufort Sea, which according to me should not be behaving like this. According to me the water here is warmed by influxes of Pacific water up through Bering Strait. According to me this balmy water will be eroding the underside of the sea-ice in this area. However this stupid picture is telling me I might not be as smart as I think I am.
we are globally cooling from the top latitudes down. I can prove this: cooling is greater at the top latitudes. Didn’t you know that?
I don’t pretend to know anything for sure, concerning the weather or the climate. I’ve been burned too many times. That is why I never bet anything more than a nickle on any forecast. However I’ve seen plenty that backs up your assertion.
Until both the PDO and AMO are in their “cold” phases together I don’t think we ought to see a dramatic growth in sea-ice. The current “warm” spike in the PDO is a wrench in the works, when it comes to growing more ice north of Bering Strait. Or so says my theory. “The Blob must go, For ice to grow.”
However I do note cooling occurring up there which seems more due to the atmosphere above than the oceans below. That likely backs up your assertion.
I turned my above comment about the pancake ice into a brief post, noting that pancake ice was getting stirred into the water, and starting to disappear. Almost as if it was watching me, as soon as I posted that, some sort of snow squall came through and the temperatures dropped to -4°C briefly, shown as the down-spike at the end of the temperature graph below.
That shows you why I never bet more than a nickle.
There are not too many of us who figured why the world is cooling
The curve shown in the above comment is an average of 54 different curves. I find that every place on earth is on its own curve. To see that we are cooling more at the top latitudes you could, for example, look at the results for Anchorage, here,
The curve you will get [for rate of change] is much steeper downwards than the average curve.
Anchorage cooled by -0.16K/annum since 2000
That is more than 2K down since 2000.
I prefer to look at maxima and minima because there is a lot less that can go wrong in the reading and recording.
For Elmendorf I had a perfect sine wave for maxima – but you must know where the turning point is, 1972,i.e.
rate of change going up from 1942-1972 and downwards from 1972
Gobal cooling has to do with the ozone, peroxides & nitrogenous oxides TOA.
It is complicated.
But, yes, it has to do with a change in atmosphere.
So the cooling is coming from TOA downward and it is coming from the top latitudes down.
“Posted on August 12, 2015 by stevengoddard
The Arctic melt season has essentially ended, nearly a month early.”
A month and a bit later and we can compare with the latest results to see if the melt had “essentially ended.” Steve’s graph first, followed by the one I copied today from the same source.