The map below shows all of NOAA’s Joaquin forecast tracks since September 30 at 11:32 PM. It also shows their “Forecast Uncertainty” from September 30 in turquoise.
Their current forecast is thousands of kilometers outside of their September 30 “uncertainty” – indicating that they actually have no idea how accurate their forecasts are and are simply making certainty numbers up.
With Hurricane Irene, they forecast landfall at every Eastern Seaboard state at one time or other, and then declared victory when one of their forecasts came true. They bet on every horse in the race.
And NASA does the same thing with temperature, adjusting temperatures far outside of their own error bars.
The abuse of data at US government agencies is astonishing. The only thing that is certain is that their certainty is meaningless.