Final Joaquin Scorecard

ScreenHunter_10719 Oct. 08 19.53

Joaquin is dead. The graphic above shows all of the NOAA forecast tracks, and the “cone of uncertainty” on October 1 and October 7. It is clear that they claim certainty much greater than is realistic.

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22 Responses to Final Joaquin Scorecard

  1. gator69 says:

    Come on Tony, everyone knows we don’t keep score anymore, winning is oh so 20th Century.

  2. Andy Oz says:

    That storm track has a high degree of certainty of being in the shape of Michael Mann’s hockey stick.

  3. Ernest Bush says:

    Joe Bastardi called this correctly last Saturday morning. Maybe they should fire a bunch of NOAA forecasters (so called) and just contract the weather out to him. Dream on.

  4. Steve Case says:

    Yes but, what about hurricane Sandy!

  5. Robertv says:

    “In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach
    shall be widely applied by States according to their capabilities.
    Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of
    full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing
    cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.” (UN
    1993)
    http://users.ictp.it/~eee/seminar/Bargiacchi%2015-07-03.pdf

    • David A says:

      sure, just make the people who make those “serious threats” financially liable for the preventive measures when their harms fail to manifest.

  6. Andy Oz says:

    OT
    Current climate propaganda announcement about “global coral bleaching” has Australian media reprinting crap about the Great Barrier Reef in imminent catastrophe.
    Yet the water near Queensland, south Pacific and Indonesian archipelago is substantially cooler than normal according to NOAA (if they are telling the truth). Must be a climate conference about to start.

  7. ren says:

    The position of the polar vortex is similar to a year ago.

  8. Latitude says:

    “cone of uncertainty”….we call it the cone of death

  9. pinroot says:

    Joaquin 1, Models 0.

  10. ren says:

    Gail
    Hurricane drinks Irish whiskey.

  11. Y’all are viewing Joaquin from a safe distance. I left Savannah on October 3 to find that it was raining. I turned north onto I-95 and the rain got worse. Then I turned east on I-26 exactly on the line of the heaviest rainfall. Visibility was less than 300 feet so I travelled at 40 mph for hours.

    The rain never stopped through Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, North Carolina, Virginia and Kentucky. Sometimes I drive 1,000 miles in a day but this is the first time that it rained for the entire journey.

    Today I am in Pikeville, Kentucky where the Hatfields and McCoys fueded. I will return home to Florida via Carrboro (Paris of the Piedmont), North Carolina hoping for better luck with the weather.

    • EV2 says:

      One Saturday last March I drove back to Ohio from spring break in Daytona. It was sprinkling as I packed the car and left Daytona, and turned to steady rain before I crossed into GA on I-95. By the time I got to the I-95/26 split and turned NW toward Columbia SC, I was sick of hours of steady to heavy rain and slow moving traffic and was hoping it would slack off the farther NW I went away from the coast. However, it not only continued to rain, it got worse. I plowed through downpour bands so heavy between Charleston and Charlotte that vehicles were pulled over due to low visibility and white-knuckle drivers. The traffic that kept moving was down to 35 mph max and stop and go in spots in the middle of nowhere on I-26 much of the way into Charlotte. It finally let up a little in central NC, but the rain didn’t stop until after dark when it turned to snow squalls about halfway through WVa on I-77 and the temperature had dropped all the way into the 30s on the backside of the front.

      Extensive storm fronts with heavy rain extending several hundred miles are not particularly unusual in the SE US particularly in the spring and fall.

  12. Billy Liar says:

    Joaquin is currently losing its identity just off the west coast of Spain. Here’s the forecast surface pressure chart for 0000Z Monday 12 Oct:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1444564800

    It will be a depression with a central pressure of 1002 hPa.

  13. Dave G says:

    Maine, Spain… what difference does it make at this point anyway.

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