1977 Deja Vu – Over And Over Again

In 1977, an “errant jet stream” brought epic snow and cold to the east, while California and Alaska were warm and dry.

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The Lewiston Journal – Google News Archive Search

BgETnxaCIAA0ZcZ

Lakeland Ledger – Google News Archive Search

Governor Jerry Brown warned of drought disaster.

ScreenHunter_1417 Jul. 29 23.22ScreenHunter_1419 Jul. 29 23.23

Brown Warns of Drought Disaster – Says Hard Choices’ Face California – Article – NYTimes.com

2016-01-04-05-13-08

National Geographic blamed global cooling for the wild weather.

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But then the rains came, and California and Arizona flooded.

PMDI1977-1978

By 1980, the rain had turned into a 500 year flood which washed out all but one of the bridges over the Salt River in Phoenix. It took me hours to commute from Scottsdale to Tempe.

2016-01-04-05-01-1817 Feb 1980, Page 3 – at Newspapers.com

I remember skiing at Flagstaff, Arizona with the snow more than ten feet deep in 1980.

Fast forward to 2015. The identical weather pattern occurred, only this time experts blamed global warming instead of global cooling – and Governor Jerry Brown was again hysterical about the drought.

ScreenHunter_53 Jul. 17 14.00

Is global warming causing extreme weather via jet stream waves? | John Abraham | Environment | theguardian.com

California and Arizona are about to get slammed with epic rain and snow.

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Experts will of course blame the rain and snow on global warming, because that is where the money lies this time around.

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105 Responses to 1977 Deja Vu – Over And Over Again

  1. sfx2020 says:

    Excellent presentation of stories I remember well.

    • Gail Combs says:

      The Russians have had an index for jet stream loopiness called the ACI for arctic circulation index for decades. http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y2787e/y2787e03c.htm#FiguraC

      Produced by: Fisheries and Aquaculture Department FAO

      Shifting the Arctic Circulation Index right by four years.

      Arctic Oscillation (AO)
      The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is a climate index of the state of the atmospheric circulation over the Arctic. It consists of a positive phase, featuring below average geopotential heights , which are also referred to as negative geopotential height anomalies , and a negative phase in which the opposite is true. In the negative phase, the polar low pressure system (also known as the polar vortex) over the Arctic is weaker, which results in weaker upper level winds (the westerlies). The result of the weaker westerlies is that cold, Arctic air is able to push farther south into the U.S., while the storm track also remains farther south. The opposite is true when the AO is positive: the polar circulation is stronger which forces cold air and storms to remain farther north. The Arctic Oscillation often shares phase with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (discussed below), and its phases directly correlate with the phases of the NAO concerning implications on weather across the U.S.

      ….Favorable positioning of the geopotential height anomalies within the negative phase of the NAO appears to enhance snowfall potential in the eastern U.S. When negative NAO anomalies are positioned such that an area of high pressure is located near Greenland and a polar vortex (area of low pressure) is somewhere near 50°N 50°W, we find an increased potential for winter weather along the U.S. east coast.

      Positive Arctic Oscillation
      “A stronger Icelandic low and Azores high translates into lower than average 500mb heights near Iceland, and above average heights near the Azores Islands. In turn, above normal temperatures are seen over the eastern U.S. as the stronger westerlies transport colder air away from North America.”

      Negative Arctic Oscillation
      “When the Icelandic low and Azores high are weaker, above average 500mb heights are located near Iceland, and below average heights near the Azores Islands. This results in a phenomenon referred to as high latitude blocking, which allows cold air to drain from Alaska and Canada into the U.S. and become entrenched, resulting in cold air outbreaks and below normal temperatures.”

      Positional Effects
      “Favorable positioning of the geopotential height anomalies within the negative phase of the NAO appears to enhance snowfall potential in the eastern U.S. When negative NAO anomalies are positioned such that an area of high pressure is located near Greenland and a polar vortex (area of low pressure) is somewhere near 50°N 50°W, we find an increased potential for winter weather along the U.S. east coast.”

  2. gator69 says:

    So the ice age scare was caused by global warming, and 2+2=5. I can’t wait to hear who won the 1934 World series this year!

  3. RAH says:

    This blast of snow will certainly help a lot but I doubt it will be a total drought buster for CA come spring even with the already heavier than normal snow packs in lots of places. Not quite enough in the mountains even if the forecasts are correct. It sure would have helped if Brown had not cancelled construction of several new reservoirs back then. But of course we will have to wait and see how much more precipitation is yet to come.

    California always seems to be in drought with wild fires or too wet with mud slides and in between they get their earthquakes. It is a never ending cycle of disasters in one place or another out there it seems. But even if the floods come like back in the 70’s I doubt the underground sources will be recharged to the extent needed over the long run. It will still eventually come down to desalinate of depopulate.

    • Gail Combs says:

      Agreed. Most of the West is using ‘fossil water’

    • wizzum says:

      Yes, that is how desert areas work.

    • Windsong says:

      An intense long duration AR would help recharge the massively overdrawn ground water sources. The cost would be very steep in lives and $$, though. (Note: link in movie is dead. Link to USGS in description is still good.)

    • Ted says:

      The Sierra snow pack is running about average so far, but Southern California rainfall is still almost zero. As of yesterday, Santa Barbara is at 15% of normal for the season, and the county as a whole is at 40%. We’re not on the aqueduct, so Sierra snow doesn’t help us a bit here. Only rain. The forecast is for 1-2″ this week, which won’t even bring us to half of normal. And every storm so far this year has come in FAR short of the forecast. No, I don’t think our drought will be ending this year, either.

  4. Jason Calley says:

    I am waiting for some CAGW enthusiast to comment:
    “Well, sure, they claimed that loopy jet streams were caused by cold weather — but that was back in the 70s! We didn’t understand climate then, but now we do! Now we know that loopy jet streams are caused by too much warmth. You can’t deny climate science by turning up anecdotal evidence from decades ago.”

    Nice obfuscation — but it totally ignores the fact that we really did get loopy jet streams back when it was really cold.

    • Gail Combs says:

      Loopy jet streams from when it was REALLY REALLY COLD!

      • Jason Calley says:

        Hey Gail! As you have pointed out before, those loopy jet streams do remind one of the boundaries of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. My (very simply stated) speculations are as follows.

        The jet stream marks the effective boundary between temperate air masses and the colder air masses to the north. When the air north of the jet stream cools enough, the increased barometric pressure distorts the jet stream into a southerly loop. As the cold northern air moves south, the overall barometric pressure drops up north, sucking in a loop of warmer southern air mass at some other point along the jet stream — thus we get the loopy meridional flow. This is not stable however, because the cold mass that has moved south is warming rapidly as it soaks up heat from lower latitudes. Fairly quickly, the flow returns to a more zonal flow. But what would happen if the interior region of North America had already chilled down below the point where it was able to sufficiently warm that loop of cold air that had moved south? At that point, the meridional flow might become a permanent fixture, with ice and snow building up until you have a stable southern loop and a two mile thick ice sheet.

        That shows a pretty simple way to get a system that two stable states — a warm state with most of the planet habitable and the northern cold air confined to the present arctic, and a colder state where the arctic air is free to move south over an already chilled interior of North America. Either state is stable — so how and why does it switch? My guess would be that it is not a one or two factor question; there are probably many factors involved and every so often we get a combination of solar output, cloudiness, orbital eccentricity, and even (maybe!) atmospheric composition, a combination that is the exact opposite of winning the slot machine. All lemons! We win an ice age!

        You are right though about that correspondence between the “polar vortex loops and the ice sheet. Not sure how that works out for the Southern Hemisphere, but it looks scary for those of us in North America.

    • bleakhouses says:

      If they could just go back and adjust those publications…

    • Ted says:

      “Nice obfuscation — but it totally ignores the fact that we really did get loopy jet streams back when it was really cold.”

      We know now that it really wasn’t cold back then. More recent measurements of the 70’s show that they were much warmer than we thought. The 1976 winter Olympics have been retroactively cancelled, due to the 70 degree temperatures in Innsbruck that winter.

  5. cfgjd says:

    It happening more and more often these days, thanks to Arctic warming. Welcome to the new normal!

    • RAH says:

      What is “happening more and more often these days”? And provide your evidence for your contention, what ever it is your referring to.

      • Martin Smith says:

        RAH, the bunching up of the jet stream is happening more often. It is happening every year now. I suppose you will demand that I do your research for you, but you will have to do it yourself.

        • sunsettommy says:

          Martin, what is the difference between MERIDONAL and ZONAL flow?

        • Martin Smith says:

          I don’t know, tommy. I suggest you enter those two terms in the google search box and see what you get. google is your friend.

        • Gail Combs says:

          Martin, doesn’t know the difference between MERIDONAL and ZONAL flow?

          And he is trying to school us on what causes them??

        • gator69 says:

          Marty was especially funny when he attempted to school Ted on Milankovitch Cycles. Another real keeper!

          Marty is obviously on somebody’s payoll. Why else would he continuously make an utter fool of himself, and show himself to be a liar, on a daily basis? Well OK, there is the possibility of mental illness.

    • Latitude says:

      How can it happen “more and more”….when it’s just happening, that’s all?
      If it happens when the arctic is cold…and it happens when the arctic is warm
      …then temperature has nothing to do with it

      • Martin Smith says:

        Lat, you aren’t making sense. The cause is major reduction in the temperature difference between the Arctic air and the air down where you are. This reduction causes the jet stream to slow down and bunch up. The coils become stable. The cause has not changed, but our understanding of it has increased quite a lot. Don’t be left behind.

        • Latitude says:

          Like it’s never happened before?
          Why did it happen before global warming then?

        • pinroot says:

          The cause is major reduction in the temperature difference between the Arctic air and the air down where you are.

          So, that means it’s possible that the cause of the temperature difference is that it is cooler in the lower latitudes, which would decrease the temperature differential between the Arctic and lower latitudes, allowing the jet stream to slow down and bunch up.

          It doesn’t have to be the Arctic that is warming to cause the temperature differential, somewhere else could be cooling. That seems to fit what Tony has been telling us for some time, if you remove the adjustments to the data, temperature at these lower latitudes are cooling, not warming, which is reducing the temperature difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes.

        • Martin Smith says:

          Lat, I explained that. No one but you said it never happened before. It used to happen once in a while. Now it is happening much more often, every year it seems, more than once. Why did it happen before global warming? The reason was the same then as it is now: A reduction in the temperature difference between the Arctic air mass and the air mass at the lower latitudes. This causes the jet stream to slow down, and when it slows down, it bunches up. The “bunches” become stable. That’s what caused the record warmth in the eastern US this past month.

        • Martin Smith says:

          Quite right, pin, that alternative is a possibility. But we know the Arctic is warming at nearly twice the rate of the rest of the planet, so it is much more likely that a warming Arctic is the cause. I posted a link to a map elsewhere in this thread that shows this.

        • Latitude says:

          The cause is major reduction in the temperature difference between the Arctic air and the air down where you are.
          ====
          Well no…..you guys will have to guess again because that doesn’t hold up to history..or the sniff test
          Florida freezes are a result of the jet stream dip…and nothing else
          It’s easy to just look at the record of Florida freezes…
          Coldest Florida freeze was 1835…..that means it was the strongest dip in the jet stream…when it was barely past the LIA…

          http://flcitrusmutual.com/render.aspx?p=/industry-issues/weather/freeze_timeline.aspx

        • Latitude says:

          ..and then there’s what is known as the “great freeze” which was back to back jet stream dips two years in a row…..in 1894 and 1895….that set the all time record low for the state

          Only about 40 years after the so called end of the little ice age…..

        • Martin Smith says:

          You are still ignoring the explanation, Lat, willfully it seems. The jet stream has always slowed at times. The difference between then and now is: Now it happens every year.

        • Latitude says:

          Martin, it has not happened every year…stop exaggerating
          Look at the history of Florida freezes….nothing has changed

        • Latitude says:

          Now it happens every year…
          ==
          and it’s always happened every year….we used to call it winter
          They just moved the goal posts….
          A real dip is not into north Georgia..that’s normal…A real dip is into south central Florida or lower

        • lectrikdog says:

          While the jet stream ALWAYS has both meridional(what you so unscientifically call “bunching up”, and “coils”), and Zonal flow components, your claim as to the cause is off the mark by 180 degrees. One well understood cause for the greater amplitude of the Rossby wave is in fact a greater temperature difference between the Arctic, and the Tropical latitudes. During Meridional flow periods(which is more typical of Hemispherical Winter btw) the temp. difference between the Winter pole and the Tropics is enhanced, and cold frontal outbreaks are typically driven by the polar jet. Of course the backside of the jet necessarily ends up bringing warmer air northward in a rush to fill the pressure vacuum created by the polar outbreak. Seeing as the Troposphere is thinner at the poles, any gathered warmth from Southern latitudes is more quickly shed to space[Cooling]. This is evident by looking at the jet stream plots., In the N. Hemi. Winter the loopiness is in the North, while in the N. Hemi. Summer loopiness is in the South Polar jet. Again, less temperature disparity exhibits a more Zonal flow pattern which is evident in the jet stream plots of Hemispherical Summers, far less loopiness is seen.

        • AndyG55 says:

          “You are still ignoring the explanation, ”

          That’s because he has shown that your explanation is ERRONEOUS… as usual.

          We are getting VERY used to ignoring your continuous errors, little goreboy.

    • Gail Combs says:

      Right on schedule….

      So WHAT ARCTIC WARMING?

      1958

      1978

      1988

      1998

      Notice the SUMMER temps are average in the above sample.

      2013 SUMMER temp below average

      2014 SUMMER temp below average

      2015 SUMMER temp below average

      Meanwhile in the Southern Hemisphere where additional sea Ice reflects five times as much solar energy because it is much closer to the equator…

      “Sea ice extended over 19.44 million square kilometers (7.51 million square miles) in 2012, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The previous record of 19.39 million kilometers (7.49 million square miles) was set in 2006.”

      “In late September 2013, the ice surrounding Antarctica reached its annual winter maximum and set a new record.”

      “Sea ice surrounding Antarctica reached a new record high extent this year, covering more of the southern oceans than it has since scientists began a long-term satellite record to map sea ice extent in the late 1970s. On Sept. 19, 2014, the five-day average of Antarctic sea ice extent exceeded 20 million square kilometers for the first time since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.” — NASA

      • Martin Smith says:

        Gail, by asking “WHAT ARCTIC WARMING?” you are being extremely silly.

        • Gail Combs says:

          Those graphs are of the air temperature in the Arctic.

          So yes WHAT WARMING and the graphs are entirely relevant considering the Arctic, according to the ClimAstrologists, is supposed to warm faster than any where else and yet it did not.

          Since it has shown no real warming in air temperature in the summer since 1958 and the last three summers (2013, 2014, 2015) have actually been cooler it kills your claim that the world is warming. It also kills your claim that the Arctic is warmer and the temp differential is smaller and that causes ‘loopy jets’

        • Gail Combs says:

          You are again demonstrating you can not follow even a simple bit of logic. My “WHAT WARMING was in answer to

          cfgjd says:
          January 4, 2016 at 1:48 pm

          It happening more and more often these days, thanks to Arctic warming.

        • Martin Smith says:

          >Those graphs are of the air temperature in the Arctic.

          Yes, Gail, but they shed no light on the subject we are discussing, because there is nothing to compare them to. That’s usually true of the raft of diagrams you post. They just don’t mean anything relevant to the discussion. Here is the map that shows that the Arctic is in fact warming faster than the lower latitudes. The map on the right: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/global-temps.shtml

        • Gail Combs says:

          “Yes, Gail, but they shed no light on the subject we are discussing, because there is nothing to compare them to.”

          What the heck do you think I put up the 1958 GRAPH from 57 years ago if not for comparision? Are you really that completely stupid?

        • Martin Smith says:

          Gail, comparing two one-year graphs is absolutely meaningless when we are talking about the trend. I posted a link to a map that shows the warming over decades. That’s how you show a trend. Comparing an old year with a new year, is silly. It doesn’t show anything except the difference between those two years. I’m not surprised you tried that, though, since you all used the same misrepresentation method to claim there has been no warming since 1997.

        • AndyG55 says:

          But Marty, everybody knows that there has been NO WARMING since 1997.. its in all the climate literature. But just ignore the consensus.. its what you do.

        • AndyG55 says:

          The ARCTIC IS COOLING

        • Ted says:

          “Yes, Gail, but they shed no light on the subject we are discussing, because there is nothing to compare them to.”

          Note that the green line in each of those graphs remains constant. It represents the average temperature on each day. SHE’S COMPARING THE TEMPERATURES TO THE AVERAGE. It’s truly awe inspiring how incapable you are of following an argument.

        • Gail Combs says:

          Thanks Ted, I thought the green line representing the average in those graphs was so blindingly obvious it did not need comment.

          Don’t they teach ANYTHING useful in schools any more?

      • Martin Smith says:

        Your graphs always look impressive, Gail, but they always seem to be irrelevant.

        • Gail Combs says:

          Everyone else can understand the relevance it is just you who does not have the background.

        • Martin Smith says:

          Well, ok, Gail, if by “relevance” you mean “obfuscation.”

        • Gonzo says:

          marty RSS shows the Arctic has been cooling since 2007!

        • Gail Combs says:

          Marty says “Well, ok, Gail, if by “relevance” you mean “obfuscation.”
          >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

          What Marty really means is “everything you post is way way over my paygrade so I can’t understand it” as is evidence by his inability to define zonal and meridional for Sunsettommy.

        • AndyG55 says:

          Poor little goreboy doesn’t understand.

          Gee Marty, don’t go blaming others for YOUR incompetence.

        • AndyG55 says:

          Marty, the Arctic is COOLING, not warming

          And if we go back a bit further, we see the step in 2010, but apart from that.. COOLING

          So all your little attempts to blame Arctic warming are again shown to be a based purely on your base-level ignorance.

  6. Martin Smith says:

    Steven, once again, you have deliberately misrepresented history. No, the cause of the jet stream waves has not changed. It is the same now as it always was. The waves form when the jet stream slows down. The jet stream slows down (mainly) because the temperature difference between the Arctic air and the air at the lower latitudes decreases.

    Yes, this phenomenon is not new. What is new, Steven, is that it happens pretty much every year now. It used to only happen once in a while. Now it happens all the time. The reason for the increase in frequency of this phenomenon is AGW, which is having a more or less chronic effect that reduces the temperature difference between the Arctic air and the air at the lower latitudes.

    Sorry, but your attempt fails again.

    • Latitude says:

      What is new, Steven, is that it happens pretty much every year now. It used to only happen once in a while
      =====
      Martin, that is so easy to dis-prove….it’s embarrassing
      Key West Florida is a little rock sitting out in thousands of miles of water…in the Gulf Stream.
      The Gulf Stream does not get below 75F, and dictates the temp of Key West.
      The only thing that will make Key West temps go below that is a dip in the jet stream, strong enough to reach Key West.

      All you have to do is look at the winter temp history of Key West to see every time the jet stream dip was strong enough to reach Key West…..

      Every dip below 70F was the jet stream….since 1980,the dips have become less frequent and weaker……..Which is the total opposite of what you believe

      • Latitude says:

        BTW…..the slight increase in winter temps for Key West is not because of global warming
        ..it’s because the jet stream dips have become less frequent and weaker
        If you look at the winter high temps…which might indicate global warming if they were increasing….the winter high temps have decreased

    • AndyG55 says:

      Poor goreboy, again refuses to accept history.

      It is not happening more often, and its nothing to do with AGW…

      because AGW ISN’T HAPPENING… no warming for 18+ years.

    • AndyG55 says:

      “you have deliberately misrepresented history”

      No he presents history.. You just want to ignore it.. as usual.

      It so hurts the AGW scam.

      As shown above, the Arctic is cooling..

      so you little attempt to misrepresent the actual reality and ignore historic reality…

      .. has again FAILED against REAL DATA. as it always does.

  7. Martin Smith says:

    Gail is spewing graphs to misrepresent the truth again. The Arctic air temperature is in fact warming at about twice the rate of the rest of the world. See the map on the right: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/global-temps.shtml

    • Terry says:

      Yea, Yea , Yea, whatever. Have a nice day.

    • Gail Combs says:

      And YOU are lying again. NOAA tossed the far north stations remember? That is why I use the Danish data. They are not going to lie since it is their butts that are going to be frozen off.

      From over 600 individual temperature series and more than 540 combined series with records of more than 20 years, the thermometer record in Canada peaked in approx. 1975

      By 2009 there are less than 30 locations reporting temperature that are used by the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) prepared by the U.S. National Climate Data Center (NCDC); this data is also used as the input to NASA’s GIStemp program.
      You can see the locations of the stations on the map (below) and the most obvious ‘hole’ is the lack of stations above latitude 60N. (Black Triangles are all that are left.)

      And used that as a way to increase the temperature when Mother Nature didn’t cooperate.

      Here is the areas sampled in 2009 by (uses a 250 km ‘smoothing’ the smallest option. )

      NOAA then smears the data

      • Martin Smith says:

        Nobody is lying, Gail. Not ev en you. You are just posting gibber, as usual.

        • Gail Combs says:

          Well NOAA sure is lying look at all the stations on the far north islands that NOAA no longer uses. (No dark triangle around the green dots) NOAA instead INFILLS the data aka they GUESS the temperatures in the Arctic. Even the Russians complained that NOAA tossed their station data too.
          I can not link the Russian papers anymore since WordPress censors those sites.

        • AndyG55 says:

          DMI data shows that most of the mythical Arctic warming in NOAA is a FRAUDULENT LIE.

          Marty is showing again that he cannot accept REAL DATA, only fraudulent fabrication.

        • AndyG55 says:

          The Arctic is cooling , not warming

    • PeterK says:

      I’d say Marty, that your brain tumour is growing at twice the rate…seek medical attention before it is too late.

  8. RAH says:

    Jet streams loop in the troughs between colder air and warmer air masses. During winter in the NH there is a greater contrast between polar air and the warmer air in the tropics making the winter jet streams generally much stronger than those we have in the summer. In short it is the contrast between the colder air and warmer air masses that drives the direction and intensity of the jet streams. Not the lack of contrast.

  9. Gail Combs says:

    Again Marty shows he has done ZERO research to back up his blathering.

    The reason the jet stream changes from zonal to meridional (loopy)

    ΔUV(1)(2) ===> ΔOzone (3) ===> ΔStratospheric Temperature(4) ===> Δtropopause height(4) + Δ wind strength of jets(5) and motion**(6) + Δstrength of the stratospheric vortex (7)(8) + ΔOzone hole (9)

    (Δ = Changes in)
    (**Blocking phenomenon is part of Loopy jets)

    REFERENCES:
    (1) NASA 2007 before the deep solar minimum.: ” In recent years, SIM has collected data that suggest the sun’s brightness may vary in entirely unexpected ways… “We have never had a reason until now to believe that parts of the spectrum may vary out of phase with the solar cycle, but now we have started to model that possibility because of the SIM results,” …
    “Between 2004 and 2007, the Solar Irradiance Monitor (blue line) measured a decrease in ultraviolet radiation (less than 400 nanometers) that was a factor of four to six larger than expected.”
    (wwwDOT)nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/solarcycle-sorce.html

    (2)NASA 2009 “…A 12-year low in solar “irradiance”: Careful measurements by several NASA spacecraft show that the sun’s brightness has dropped by 0.02% at visible wavelengths and 6% at extreme UV wavelengths since the solar minimum of 1996….” science(DOT)nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum/

    (3)Solar Spectral Irradiance Data

    Research and Applications
    Because of selective absorption and scattering processes in the Earth’s atmosphere, different regions of the solar spectrum affect Earth’s climate in distinct ways. Approximately 20-25% of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is absorbed by atmospheric water vapor, clouds, and ozone, by processes that are strongly wavelength dependent. Ultraviolet radiation at wavelengths below 300 nm is completely absorbed by the Earth’s atmosphere and contributes the dominant energy source in the stratosphere and thermosphere, establishing the upper atmosphere’s temperature, structure, composition, and dynamics. Even small variations in the Sun’s radiation at these short wavelengths will lead to corresponding changes in atmospheric chemistry. Radiation at the longer visible and infrared wavelengths penetrates into the lower atmosphere, where the portion not reflected is partitioned between the troposphere and the Earth’s surface, and becomes a dominant term in the global energy balance and an essential determinant of atmospheric stability and convection.
    lasp(dot)colorado.edu/home/sorce/data/ssi-data/

    (4)Changes in Ozone and Stratospheric Temperature

    The graph above shows total ozone and stratospheric temperatures over the Arctic since 1979. Changes in ozone amounts are closely linked to temperature, with colder temperatures resulting in more polar stratospheric clouds and lower ozone levels. Atmospheric motions drive the year-to-year temperature changes. The Arctic stratosphere cooled slightly since 1979, but scientists are currently unsure of the cause….
    (wwwDOT)giss.nasa.gov/research/features/200402_tango/

    (5)CHARACTERISTICS OF THE GENERAL CIRCULATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF TOTAL OZONE AS DETERMINED BY THE NIMBUS III SATELLITE INFRARED INTERFEROMETER SPECTROMETER

    Ozone is an important atmospheric trace constituent. The depletion of solar radiation between approximately 2000 and 3000 A is the result of strong absorption by ozone in the ultraviolet wave-lengths. The energy absorbed in this process is the prime source of thermal energy in the stratosphere. Because of this, ozone plays an important role in the large-scale motions of the atmosphere….

    ….A strong correlation was found between the meridional gradient of total ozone and the wind velocity in jet stream systems…..

    (6)Top-Down Solar Modulation of Climate: evidence for centennial-scale change

    The work presented here is consistent with the interpretation of a recently reported effect [25] of solar variability on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and European winter temperatures over the interval 1659–2010 in terms of top-down modulation of the blocking phenomenon [52, 53]. In fact, Woollings et al [26] show that the solar response pattern is, despite being similar in form to that of the NAO, significantly different in that it reaches further east. These authors also show that open solar flux has a much stronger control over blocking events in this sector than the previously reported effect of F10.7 [55]. There is seasonality in the solar responses reported here. This is expected as modulation of upwards-propagating planetary waves in wintertime, and the associated stratosphere– troposphere interaction, is most widely believed to be the key mechanism [8, 11]. In addition, the tropospheric signature is a response of the eddy-driven jet streams, and these are at their strongest and most responsive in winter. While the results are presented here as annual means, the regression analysis was actually carried out on monthly mean data and thus takes this seasonality into account. The seasonal evolution of the F10.7 cm flux regression was described in detail by Frame and Gray [53] and this was not significantly affected by using either the open solar flux FS nor the cosmic ray flux, M, instead of F10.7.”
    http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/3/034008/pdf/1748-9326_5_3_034008.pdf

    (7a)The NAO Troposphere–Stratosphere Connection “Using monthly mean data, daily data, and theoretical arguments, relationships between surface pressure variations associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), tropopause height, and the strength of the stratospheric vortex are established.”

    (8)Quasi-biennial oscillation and solar cycle influences on winter Arctic total ozone

    Abstract

    The total column ozone (TCO) observed from satellites and assimilated in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts since 1979 is used as an atmospheric tracer to study the modulations of the winter Arctic stratosphere by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the solar cycle. It is found that both the QBO and solar forcings in low latitudes can perturb the late winter polar vortex, likely via planetary wave divergence, causing an early breakdown of the vortex in the form of sudden stratospheric warming. As a result, TCO within the vortex in late winter can increase by ~60 Dobson unit during either a solar maximum or an easterly phase of the QBO, or both, relative to the least perturbed state when the solar cycle is minimum and the QBO is in the westerly phase. In addition, from the solar maximum to the solar minimum during the QBO easterly phase, the change in TCO is found to be statistically insignificant. Therefore, the “reversal” of the Holton–Tan effect, reported in some previous studies using lower stratospheric temperature, is not evident in the TCO behavior of both observation and assimilation.
    onlinelibrary(DOT)wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD021065/abstract

    (9)Climate System Response to Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and Recovery

    Compared to well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs), the radiative forcing of climate due to observed stratospheric ozone loss is very small: in spite of this, recent trends in stratospheric ozone have caused profound changes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate system, primarily by altering the tropospheric midlatitude jet, which is commonly described as a change in the Southern Annular Mode. Ozone depletion in the late twentieth century was the primary driver of the observed poleward shift of the jet during summer, which has been linked to changes in tropospheric and surface temperatures, clouds and cloud radiative effects, and precipitation at both middle and low latitudes. It is emphasized, however, that not all aspects of the SH climate response to stratospheric ozone forcing can be understood in terms of changes in the midlatitude jet. The response of the Southern Ocean and sea ice to ozone depletion is currently a matter of debate. ….
    (wwwDOT)columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/previdi+polvani-QJRMS-2014-inpress.pdf

    • Martin Smith says:

      >Again Marty shows he has done ZERO research to back up his blathering.
      Gail, I always have science to support my claims.

      1. The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the global average:

      Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather
      http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v7/n9/full/ngeo2234.html

      2. Global warm in g is causing the jet stream to slow:

      Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes
      http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051000/abstract

      • Latitude says:

        Martin, your theory seems to be that the warming arctic causes the jet stream to slow and dip?….am I right?? not sure
        If that’s so, it does not explain why the jet stream dipped exactly the same in the past.
        Florida freezes are only caused by dips in the jet stream….it’s easy to qualify that by just looking at the history of Florida freezes…before global warming, at the end of the LIA..before Arctic warming

      • Gail Combs says:

        Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather
        “The Arctic region has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average — a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. “

        Seems they forgot about the positive NAO which AndyG has been trying to bring to your attention. They also start at the bottom of the last cycle as Steven Goddard has been at pains to point out. In other words it is a SWAG.
        “..because of incomplete knowledge of how high-latitude climate change influences these phenomena, combined with sparse and short data records, and imperfect models, large uncertainties regarding the magnitude of such an influence remain…”
        And then comes — “we need more money” —-
        >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

        Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes
        “….These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss, but are also apparent in summer, possibly related to earlier snow melt on high-latitude land.”

        Too bad they did not do their research. I see a recovery in the snow cover since the 1990s

        Northern Hemisphere snow cover

        Febuary

        March

        April

        The newer 15% DMI Arctic sea ice coastlines not masked

        Sea ice extent in recent years for the northern hemisphere.
        The grey shaded area corresponds to the climate mean plus/minus 1 standard deviation.

        Sure looks like the spring ice for March April, May is near or within 1 standard deviation of the mean for 1979 to 2000.

        (About 68 percent of the data values are within plus/minus one standard deviation of the mean.)

        • Latitude says:

          I hate the way people play on those ice charts….making a big deal out of the extremes highs and lows….
          That’s the most delicate stage and can be affected by wind, burps…..butterflys

          We should just look at Jun-Dec….that’s the only real indicator

      • Gonzo says:

        marty do you even read the abstracts from your links? 1) “The possibility of a link” ,” reveal three potential dynamical pathways linking Arctic amplification” “We conclude that improved process understanding, sustained and additional Arctic observations, and better coordinated modelling studies will be needed to advance our understanding”
        conclusion we’ve burned through our grant money and need more!

        2)”National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis are analyzed” equals more computer modeling, ” possibly related to earlier snow melt” equals not really sure but possibly! “which may lead to an increased probability” WooooHooooo! That is definitive!
        computer reanalysis of previous computer modeling MAY or POSSIBLY increase our future grant funding efforts.

        What is sad is you actually believe this BS

      • AndyG55 says:

        The Arctic is COOLING , not warming

    • oz4caster says:

      Gail, when are you getting your PhD in Meteorology? With as many papers as you have read, you probably have learned more than most PhD climate scientists already.

      I have been a meteorologist for over 40 years now and because of my interest in forecasting, I have looked at the surface and upper air weather patterns almost every day over that period. My subjective experience is that there is not any noticeable change in the frequency of “buckling” of the jet stream and formation of upper level omega blocking high pressure systems around the northern hemisphere. The prevalent location and duration of these blocks does change from year to year and that drives weather changes from year to year, especially in the winter and higher latitudes.

      The GFS is currently forecasting a blocking upper level high to set up next week over western Canada and associated with the first real arctic cold front of the year that is currently forecast to push all the way into the deep southern US late next week.

      GFS 500 mb forecast northern hemisphere:
      http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_looper.php?PROD=2016010406_NHC_GFS_500_HGT_WINDS
      (this link will not work beyond about 24 hours from this posting)

      GFS surface temperature forecast northern hemisphere:
      http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_looper.php?PROD=2016010406_NHC_GFS_SFC_TEMP_IMAGE
      (this link will not work beyond about 24 hours from this posting)

      Use this link beginning January 5th or later and select the appropriate options:
      http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/list_model.php?aoi=NHC&model=GFS

      Another very powerful and flexible weather visualization tool with GFS past and forecast data (click and drag to move the globe, use mouse roller to zoom in and out, select different overlays by clicking the “earth” link lower left):
      http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-99.57,46.67,414

      The GFS doesn’t have the best track record at forecasting more than about 3 or 4 days, so we will have to wait and see if it is right this time. But it is just a matter of time, because there are always arctic cold fronts that develop every winter affecting the eastern US. Some years, like the last two, just per chance happen to have more of them and I don’t believe “climate change” is involved. This is purely the normal chaotic weather. Global temperature change of plus or minus 0.5C to 1.0C is much too feeble to have much effect on these intense weather patterns. Now when you start talking about global temperature changes of plus or minus 8C to 12C or possibly more, as happened in each of the last glacial periods, then we will see some major impacts on the weather patterns.

      I see no evidence that the pattern of glacial cycles over the last million years is going to be broken any time soon. In fact, our best reconstructions of the paleo record indicate the glacial periods are getting longer and slightly colder, lasting over 100,000 years, while the interglacial warm periods are staying about the same at 10 to 20 thousand years but getting slightly warmer than over a million years ago. The next glacial period appears to be inevitable and the gradual descent into extreme cold and dangerously low CO2 levels could start at any time. This will be a MAJOR challenge for humanity. Imagine deep ice covering places like most of Canada, the northern US and Rocky Mountains, as well as much of northern Europe. Also, vast areas where crops are grown now will be turned into tundra, deserts and will expand greatly, vegetation will wither and barely be able to survive with the low CO2, and earth will not likely be able to support near as many humans as is possible now.

      It certainly does not appear that high CO2 levels have prevented any of the recent glacial periods, so in my view CO2 is not a problem and the higher we can keep it, the better for plant and crop growth. In thousands of years, humans may be looking for ways to get more CO2 into the air to help mitigate the detrimental effects on vegetation caused the next glacial period and decreasing CO2 as more is absorbed into the increasingly colder oceans. By then, fossil fuels may be largely exhausted. Trying to remove CO2 now is very short sighted and certainly not worth the terrible economic impacts from greatly increased energy costs that will be the result of current policies in many developed countries.

      We don’t really know what ends the interglacial warm periods and starts the glacial periods. It is probably the result of a complex interplay of multiple factors over time. Maybe in a few hundred thousand years, there will be climate models that can accurately predict these cycles if humanity survives. But until then, I have no confidence in our very crude and totally unvalidated climate models.

      • Latitude says:

        …agree 100% thank you

      • Gail Combs says:

        oz4caster,

        Thank you very much.

        I am just curious and trying to figure out what is actually going on with out the money generated hype. It would be nice to have an idea of what the climate is going to do in the next few decades or hundred years.

        I think it is extremely foolish not to be putting a lot of this wasted money into nuclear power, desalinization and plant biology. (With fusion as the next generation power.)

        With enough power we can feed humans going forward although it might take specialized greenhouses. We can also produce CO2 from limestone to feed those greenhouses as needed. Instead the Elite rather make sure most of us die. Unfortunately that never seems to occur to activists despite all the evidence of mass murder by government in the 20th century.

        We really need Mother Nature to give us a major wake-up call and that wake-up call is due fairly soon. Solar Cycle 24 will start bottoming out in the next few years.

        As J. Feynman et al said in a recent paper “Such a leveling off or decline of the long-term solar component of climate change will help to disentangle its effects from that of anthropogenic greenhouse warming “Solar variability and climate change’ Geomagnetic aa index and global surface temperature

        Let’s just hope that a bit of honesty shows up in the scientific community at the same time, but I doubt it.

        • Anthony S says:

          ” We can also produce CO2 from limestone to feed those greenhouses as needed.”

          Funny thing is you get cement as a byproduct of that process.

  10. lectrikdog says:

    http://joannenova.com.au/2014/03/solar-output-correllates-with-the-north-atlantic-jet-stream-over-a-millenia/
    If there was less of a gradient between the Equator and the Poles as MS claims, we could expect a more Zonal jetstream, and less wild swings of the weather, less vorticity. But, as Ol’ Sol winds down for a nap, we’re seeing quite the opposite.

    • Gail Combs says:

      Lectrikdog you are correct. The shape of the Laurentide Ice Sheet follows the shape of the weather patterns we saw in the cold weather of the late 60s and early 70s and the cold we are seeing now. Only the brain dead could not add 1+ 1+1 and see meridional jets are a sign of a cooling not a warming world.

      Here is another peer-reviewed science paper based on actual physical evidence that Martin hates so much.(They show he is uneducated.)

      06 May 2012 Nature Geoscience | Letter Regional atmospheric circulation shifts induced by a grand solar minimum

      ABSTRACT
      Large changes in solar ultraviolet radiation can indirectly affect climate by inducing atmospheric changes. Specifically, it has been suggested that centennial-scale climate variability during the Holocene epoch was controlled by the Sun. However, the amplitude of solar forcing is small when compared with the climatic effects and, without reliable data sets, it is unclear which feedback mechanisms could have amplified the forcing. Here we analyse annually laminated sediments of Lake Meerfelder Maar, Germany, to derive variations in wind strength and the rate of 10Be accumulation, a proxy for solar activity, from 3,300 to 2,000 years before present. We find a sharp increase in windiness and cosmogenic 10Be deposition 2,759  ±  39 varve years before present and a reduction in both entities 199  ±  9 annual layers later. We infer that the atmospheric circulation reacted abruptly and in phase with the solar minimum. A shift in atmospheric circulation in response to changes in solar activity is broadly consistent with atmospheric circulation patterns in long-term climate model simulations, and in reanalysis data that assimilate observations from recent solar minima into a climate model. We conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation amplified the solar signal and caused abrupt climate change about 2,800 years ago, coincident with a grand solar minimum.

  11. Martin Smith says:

    Thanks again for a wonderful time, people.

    • Neal S says:

      I guess Martin is done strutting around the board, knocking over pieces, and will now fly back to his flock to declare victory.

      • wizzum says:

        Yes, it’s time for a new batch of trolls, Marty has become a half smart condescending prick. I can no longer be bothered with his idiocy.

        • gator69 says:

          I am a very patient man, but I cannot tolerate liars. Marty knows that he cannot make any definitive claim about man made global warming, and yet he continues to do so. He has had his nose repeatedly rubbed in the mess he makes and has been shown that NV is still the only known driver of global climates, yet he continues to mess on the carpet. If he were my dog, he would now be an outside dog, and would never be allowed back in the house.

        • AndyG55 says:

          Actually , Gator.

          That particular dog needs to be sent to the pound to be “re-purposed”

    • AndyG55 says:

      Marty always quits when he is way behind.

      Run, run, run little loser, you have succeeded in making a monumental FOOL of yourself, YET AGAIN.

    • Gerald Machnee says:

      Well, Martin, can you post a map of the Arctic stations that were used for the NOAA “warming”
      I bet you cannot and will not.
      Why?
      Because most of the points are fudged.

      • AndyG55 says:

        Satellite data shows that the Arctic is COOLING !!

        There is basically NO land data except that FABRICATED and smeared by the Fraudsters at NOAA/GISS. The warming as a FABRICATION, pure and simple.

  12. leftinflagstaff says:

    Jan 4. And I’m tired of shoveling already.

  13. smamarver says:

    Deja vu is the right expression, you are right, since this kind of staff happen from time to time. For example, climate alarmists have run wild with predictions about the Monster El Niño active in the Pacific for several months. A corresponding situation existed in late 1939, and here are more details about that: http://oceansgovernclimate.com/storm-frank-el-nino-insufficient-explanation/.

  14. Steve. says:

    Piers Corbyn has the handle on the jet stream,weather action ,the wild meanders of the jet is to do with low sun activity according to piers.

    • Gail Combs says:

      Of course it is. It is actually well known but that does not stop the Propagandists from rewriting ‘The Science’ to suit their political purpose.

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