Ice-Free Arctic In Only 2,250 Years

NSIDC continues their hysterics, hinting that theArctic is crashing and doomed, due to record heat.

Screenshot 2016-03-10 at 10.26.27 AMScreenshot 2016-03-10 at 10.26.53 AM  Figure3_0301-350x270

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis

Scary stuff – except that the area of ice in the Arctic hasn’t changed for a decade. Decadal trend is ice-free in 2,250 years.

Screenshot 2016-03-10 at 10.24.47 AM


The record Arctic heat is actually about -25C.

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Screenshot 2016-03-10 at 10.30.46 AM

Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Arctic ice extent is essentially at the 30 year mean, except for the Barents Sea – where winds have been pushing the ice edge towards the pole. This is hardly cause for alarm.

N_daily_extent (4)

N_daily_extent.png (420×500)

Nothing significant is changing with the Arctic climate, yet NSIDC finds a way to spin it into a disaster. And to enhance their fantasy, they ignore all pre-1979 data and start their graphs right at the 1979 peak. The graph below is from the 1990 IPCC report, and shows that ice extent was much lower earlier in the 1970’s.


ScreenHunter_10756 Oct. 10 12.21

1990 IPCC : Chapter 7

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47 Responses to Ice-Free Arctic In Only 2,250 Years

  1. gator69 says:

    They cannot even settle on a cherry picked average! First they cherry pick 1950-1980, and then in the same paragraph they cherry pick 1981-2010.

    That’s settled science for ya!

  2. Bob Koss says:

    If the Arctic is crashing how come the number of ships transiting the Northern Sea Route is dropping?
    Northern Sea Route transits
    2011 41
    2012 46
    2013 71
    2014 53
    2015 18
    PDFs of shipping for the past 5 years at link.

  3. omanuel says:

    AGW is crashing and doomed, as are the careers of pseudo-scientists and politicians who vainly tried for the past seventy years (1946-2016) to hide the pulsar core of the Sun from the public.

    False pride and blind arrogance keeps them unwilling to accept amnesty and admit they can no longer hide information that is indelibly recorded in exact rest masses of 3,000 atoms that compromise all matter.

  4. Latitude says:

    and it’s making it thicker at the pole….

    If the wind was blowing the other way….they would just be claiming it’s thinner

  5. Frank says:

    I once (1978) took a piss while snow-shoeing on a Colorado Rockies Glacier in January. Temperature DOWN at the nearby Ski Resort was -27 deg F.. (-33 C?) that day. Pee was solid yellow ice, before it hit the ground. I am pretty sure 5 degrees warming would not have had ANY measurable effect, either on the yellow ice, or the shrinkage! Is there any such thing as common sense any more???

  6. random schmoe says:

    Actually, the US Navy forecasted an ice free Arctic by September 2016. The military is hardly clairvoyant, but they (and other military forces) are responding in a fashion that is taking that forecast rather seriously.

  7. Andy DC says:

    If you start the Arctic sea ice charts in 1974, 1954 or 1934, the drop since 1979 would be put in proper perspective and would not look nearly as frightening. One of the great cherry picks of all time!

    • Andy says:

      Have you got a graph from 1974 Andy DC? I think Steve showed one previously but cannot recall the link.

      If they were cherry picking why not pick 2000 AD ?


  8. powers2be says:

    They wish it to be so. So. It is so.

    These alarmists are worse then petulant children.

  9. Andy says:

    “Arctic ice extent is essentially at the 30 year mean, except for the Barents Sea – where winds have been pushing the ice edge towards the pole.”

    Any data to back up this claim? From the pattern in that area it seems more associated with melting from the North Atlantic Drift in conjunction with warmer temps.


    PS I see everyone is no longer quoting the DMI ice extent graph now … cough. 😉

  10. AndyG55 says:

    Once this El Nino subsides, the Arctic sea ice should start to increase markedly over the next few years. The alarmist KNOW this, that is the cause of their DESPERATION.

    The RECOVERY from the massive extents of the LIA will be over, worse luck.

    The people living in the Arctic region are in for a tough several decades, icebound and frozen.

  11. markstoval says:

    I see that we might have an ice free arctic in only 2,250 years. But I am old now and can’t wait that long! I wish it were only 2,250 minutes. After all, what is wrong with the present ice age ending and a return to a nice warm earth that nurtured the dinosaurs for so long?

  12. cdfgjd says:

    Looks like the arctic sea ice recovery is over

    ..massive melting predicted this summer.

    ps. the pseudo-hiatus is dead, LOL

  13. eliza says:

    I thought we weren’t going to use/quote DMI for anything anymore! just being nasty LOL

    • Jason Calley says:

      Did anyone find an answer to the DMI 15% baseline question that was raised earlier?

      The DMI 30% chart with coastal zones masked out was the standard for decades, because the ice detection algorithm was not accurate enough to include coast and presumably not the 15% area as well. And yet when they switched to the new 15% chart they had a long term baseline. If the algorithm was not accurate enough for reporting all those years, how did they get the baseline? Or perhaps a better question is, “how accurate is the baseline?”.

  14. Brian D says:

    DMI graph for Feb compared to the NSIDC above shows a little different story.

  15. Jim Hunt says:

    Hello again Steve,

    At the risk of repeating myself, if you will keep on regurgitating the same old Porky Pies I suppose I will have to appraise you of the latest data from the Arctic yet again²? Let’s start with CT area shall we?

    As you can see, currently it’s the lowest it’s *ever been for the date:

    • David A says:

      Apparently you failed to read the post, or look at the graphic posted…

      what part of that graphic do you disagree with?

      • Jim Hunt says:

        Apparently you failed to click my link and look at the pretty pictures?

        My graph was of quantitative AREA. Your graphic shows qualitative EXTENT. Here’s the accompanying quantitative graph of NSIDC extent:

        As you can see, currently it’s also near as damn it the lowest it’s *ever been for the date. What part of either graph do you disagree with?

        • RAH says:

          How about the part where your graph starts at 1979 and then you say “it’s near as damn it the lowest it’s ever been for the date”. In fact that pretty much an perfect example of my objection to your site and out hyperbolic outlook that of about every other alarmist site when it comes to Arctic ice. It is all a lot of hype about something that is not remarkable at all when one looks at even the last 100 years as it has been show many times here at that blog and elsewhere. Bottom line the current level of Arctic ice is not indicative of substantive long term climate change and you folks are claiming it is and are trying to mislead people.

        • gator69 says:

          Wow. One metric that indicates the lowest sea ice in… wait for it… a whopping, 37 years. Zzzzzzzzzzzz…

          Jim is a New Earther, who hates human beings, and would rather tilt at windmills than save a starving child. Jim ignores natural cycles, and selfishly wraps himself in a green flag, as innocent humans starve to death.

          Bjorn Lomborg, a Nobel Laureate warmist, also says that Jim is wrongheaded. Lomborg explains how we could save millions of lives each year by ignoring the trivial issue of global warming.

          Yet Jim charges on! Advocating for the mass starvation of millions each year. What a POS.

        • True, but let’s also acknowledge there is nothing new about New Earthers as they stand on the shoulders of progressive giants. They just carry on the central project of all right-thinking people that began long time ago. The vocabulary changes but the exalted end remains. What is a starving child when you are reshaping humanity and creating the New Man?

          Creating the New Man: From Enlightenment Ideals to Socialist Realities

          And who better to lead the charge than enlightened progressive intelligentsia?

  16. Henry P says:

    @Jim Hunt

    I agree with the sentiments expressed by a few us here, but want to take it a bit further.
    There are countless test records showing the so-called 87 year Gleissberg cycle,
    for example here,

    This was picked up by Yousef, I refer specifically to tables II and III

    Click to access cli267_293.pdf

    As you can see, countless records showing a 80-100 year weather cycle.

    Going by the most accurate isotope investigations the cycle was pinpointed at between 86-88 year, let us make it 87 years on average. Now 2016-87= 1929. This was also confirmed by myself looking at specific records on maximum temperatures.
    look at my latest comment here:

    Now, unfortunately, we do not have any record of ice around 1929. But there was an eyewitness report of the melting of ice around 1923:

    Noting that antarctic ice is currently increasing, my question to you Jim is simply this: why do you think that arctic melt now is more than 87 years ago?

    Best regards,


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