NSIDC’s Arctic Illusion

Mark Serreze is the director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado. He believes that the Arctic is screaming, and he predicted that the North Pole would be ice-free in 2008.




August 20, 2008 at 8:14 am

NSIDC graphs make it look like screaming Arctic sea ice is declining linearly, with 2016 at a record low.


Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis

Even though there has been almost no change in sea ice area over the past decade.

Screenshot 2016-03-10 at 10.24.47 AM


The Danish Meteorological Institute shows a very different graph, with no change over the past decade, or perhaps a slight increase.



The graph below overlays the black NSIDC graph on the red DMI graph. The graphs matched fairly well until four years ago, when the NSIDC line diverged sharply downwards.



This divergence is enough to allow NSIDC to declare a record low and create the appearance of a downwards trend. More importantly, it allows them to make hysterical press releases like this.


February continues streak of record low Arctic sea ice extent

Another interesting story at NSIDC is that they stopped updating their ice age maps on week 36 last year, the week before the ice has its annual birthday. Had they updated the maps, they would have shown a huge increase in the amount of the oldest/thickest ice. But that isn’t the story NSIDC is paid to produce.


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81 Responses to NSIDC’s Arctic Illusion

  1. Shifts do happen, but while the Arctic ice may be temporarily declining, the Antartic ice has been increasing.

  2. gator69 says:

    The Arctic is screaming

    Maybe this is what Mark heard…

  3. RAH says:

    They can fabricate their “data” and make all kinds of hyperbolic statements but it has little effect on the average Joe since nothing has really changed for them and they can see no damaging effects. This is part of the reason why the AGW scam just isn’t working. That and the fact that the warmists keep losing credibility because their claims just aren’t coming true.

  4. Jim Hunt says:

    As Henry points out, you do seem to be repeating yourself rather rapidly (RRR for short) Steve!

    Meanwhile CT Arctic sea ice area is still the lowest it’s *ever been for the date, and what’s more Mark Serreze didn’t say what you say he said.

    * Since their records began

    • Henry P says:

      Hi Jim, I would be interested to get an answer from you on the question I asked you?

    • Ice-free in only 2,250 years

        • AndyG55 says:

          Jimbo is never one to be sullied by truth or reality.

        • Jim Hunt says:

          Just for the record I was pointing out that the “Arctic” conversation seems to have moved here before I even had a chance to read your comment over there.

          “Steve” said “There has been almost no change in sea ice area over the past decade”. For the mathematically challenged amongst us I feel I should point out at this juncture that:

          10 < 37 < 87

        • gator69 says:

          And for the severely mentally challenged, 37 no ice.

          Let’s see if he gets it this time. 😉

        • AndyG55 says:

          Poor Jimbo, still refused to comprehend anything about NATURAL Arctic cycles.

          A child’s mind to be sure.

        • gator69 says:

          WordPress ate most of my post…

          And for the severely mentally challenged, 37 is less than 7500, and some ice is greater than no ice.

          Let’s see if he gets it this time. 😉

        • AndyG55 says:

          He knows the truth, but his links to Exeter Uni, a hotbed of climate alarmism, will not allow him to admit the reality.

          Wouldn’t surprise me at all if he was getting some sort of underhand funding from the climate trough.

        • AndyG55 says:

          Gator, according to geologists, the “Neoglaciation” started some 3500 years ago, with a bump for the MWP, then dropping down to the LIA, which we are still recovering from.

          Unfortunately, that recovery seems to have stalled, and the main driver is having a sleep for the next few decades. 😦

        • gator69 says:

          I spent 5-6 years as a geology student, and like most geologists, I get the long game.

        • Jim Hunt says:

          At the risk of repeating myself repeating myself:

          “Steve” said “There has been almost no change in sea ice area over the past decade”

          The data says “CT Arctic sea ice area is the lowest it’s been for this day of the year for the 37 years in the satellite record”


        • gator69 says:

          The data says “CT Arctic sea ice area is the lowest it’s been for this day of the year for the 37 years in the satellite record”

          Big deal.

          So what.

          What you are loudly mouth breathing about is perfectly natural, and benign.

          Why do you care Jim?

          Is it about the children?

        • Menicholas says:

          I understand perfectly…you are one of the most gullible humans to have ever inhabited the planet.

        • AndyG55 says:

          Jimbo refuses to accept the reality that the CYCLE of Arctic sea ice has levelled off.

          That’s what cycles do..

          Its called a stationary point, you mathematically illiterate clown !!!

          Jimbo want to remain IGNORANT… it is his comfort zone.

        • AndyG55 says:

          Menicholas, He’s not so much gullible, rather, intentionally deceitful.

          He knows reality.

          He knows the current Arctic sea ice level is, if anything, quite high compared to the last 10,000 years….

          ….but he LIES and INSINUATES that something is wrong, in an effort to support his buddies in the AGW scam…

          AS I said before, I would not be at all surprised if he is receiving payments from Exeter Uni in some form or other. As we all know, the trough is deep, and the green slime spreads far.

        • Jim Hunt says:

          Supposedly this is attributable to Daniel Patrick Moynihan:

          “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts”

        • Henry P says:

          @Jim Hunt

          let us be clear:
          1) You have not answered the question that I posed to you…..

          2) I have done various investigations to determine if there is any man made warming. My finding is there is none. Any AGW is so small that it is not measurable…..

          3) If you yourself have done any investigations to prove that AGW exists, I would like to hear from you…..

        • AndyG55 says:

          ““Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts””

          Yet you, as usual IGNORE THE FACTS.

          Its what you do.

          Prove me wrong and ADMIT that the current summer Arctic sea ice levels are MUCH higher than the mostly ZERO summer sea Ice levels of the first 3/4 of the Holocene

          Put it on your LYING CON of a web site, that the reason there is still so much Arctic sea ice is because the world is only just climbing out of the coldest period in 10,000 years.

          Those are the FACTS…..

          …. but you will DENY them or IGNORE them, because you have an agenda to follow.

          And as Gail aptly showed, that agenda is one which refuses to assist developing countries with decent solid energy supplies, thus causing millions of children to die unnecessarily.
          And would also cheer when far northern countries are again icebound and forced to struggle through freezing winters.

          You truly are a despicable piece of low-life human pestilence, Jimbo.

    • gator69 says:

      * Since their records began

      A WHOPPING 37 years. And as we all know, what we are seeing in the Arctic is perfectly natural. So why do you care Jim? Is it about the children? Hmmm>?

    • Menicholas says:

      Om my freaking God!
      The horror…the shear terror of a slightly less frigidly frozen Arctic wasteland!
      How can we survive a world that is somewhat less instantly fatal to human life?

      • AndyG55 says:

        Imagine if the Arctic were ever actually as FREE OF ICE as during the first 3/4 of the Holocene…

        .. rather than at the anomalously high extents they currently are in the gradual RECOVERY from the massive extents of the LIA.

        Jimbo is still is unable to admit to REALITY.. he lives his life as one big LIE. !!

        How’s you mates at Exeter Uni going, Jimbo.

        Still running high on the climate trough, I see !!!


        • Menicholas says:

          I can imagine it: Short boat trips from Western Europe to East Asia!
          But I doubt we will see much if any of those trips in our or our children’s lifetime, as we have almost surely begun the turn to a thirty year trend of more ice.
          Funny, aint it, how the panic mongers never want to mention the regular cycle of increasing and decreasing Arctic ice which has been well documented over the past 150+ years?
          Most especially, they want to pretend that we only have any idea of sea ice extent since 1979 or so.
          The trends sure look different is one includes the late 1960’s and early 1970’s in the graphs.
          Hmm…best to leave that part out of the horror story they are scaring the children and the weak-minded with.
          All trends in climate-related sciences must begin at the point in time which produces the most worrisome looking graphs.

      • AndyG55 says:

        Was chatting with Vlad (from Russia) on another forum.

        The Russians are absolutely LOVING the 3C lift in winter temperatures this year.

        “Quite right, A/G55; my family and I are enjoying substantially smaller winter heating bills, thanks to ‘warmer’ (not “hotter”) winter weather, and lower prices for methane.”

        The BENEFITS of Arctic sea ice getting back DOWN to the NORMAL levels of the rest of the Holocene are numerous.

        • Menicholas says:

          My thought is that milder wintertime temps in Russia are most accurately described as “less frigid”, no?
          A milder climate regime in the frozen northlands…hard to imagine that people could be so easily brain-washed into thinking of that as some sort of problem.

        • AndyG55 says:

          Unfortunately, over the coming decades, the sullen sun is going to make tings particularly difficult for people up there.

          Jimbo will get his wish for massively increased Arctic Sea Ice, and more human hardship.

        • AndyG55 says:

          The strong El Nino and the wobbly jet stream makes UAH NoPol look very strange.

          A huge localised weather event..

          No wonder the Russians are LOVING their current winter 🙂

        • AndyG55 says:

          For comparison , here’s UAH SoPol…

    • AndyG55 says:

      A measly 38 or so years at the end of the COLDEST period in the last 10,000 years. Irrelevant, like you.

      There is heaps of evidence that Arctic sea ice is ANOMOLOUSLY HIGH for the Holocene compared to all but the LIA.

      So stop your deceitful lies and mis-representation of reality.

  5. omanuel says:

    Ted Cruz may be one Presidential candidate in the 2016 election that knows he cannot trust advice from the US National Academy of Sciences:


    With kind regards,
    Oliver K. Manuel

    • Henry P says:

      Tony aka Steven already posted the ca. 1 hour video of that inquiry.
      I think he (Ted) even used some of RS materials.
      Afterwards, I decided I liked Ted Cruz./

    • Menicholas says:

      Trump knows it is all BS too.

    • Random Schmoe says:

      Ted Cruz (and his father) believe that an invisible cloud being controls the weather and climate. So, you may not want to trust his judgement either.

      • Menicholas says:

        I trust my own judgement, and give a nod to others who reach similar conclusions to the ones I reach.

      • Henry P says:

        You think it is reasonable to believe that everything you see around you came by accident? Life did not come forth by creation (a plan) but by evolution. You believe in Murphy’s law (Murphy’s law = given that there is a chance that something will happen, then, if there is enough time available, eventually it will happen). You say the creation of the whole universe was random? Is that why your name is Random?
        I say it was part of God’s plan for us to be born. I will ask you: never mind the question about how random your life came into being [thinking of the co-incidence of your parents meeting, and their parents meeting, etc, until the first cell] and how incredibly small the chance is that you are alive today. What about the next question: where does matter itself come from? Where did all the atoms that form the person that you are and the earth that you are living on and the air that you are breathing, came from? If you believe there is no God, then obviously in the beginning there must have been absolutely nothing. Good for you if you believe in the Big Bang theory. But the question still remains: where did all the matter that forms the universe, originate from? You see what the problem is? It does not make sense to believe that there is no God because it is not logical. In fact, if you believe there is no God, you are actually saying that you believe that out of absolutely nothing and guided by absolutely nobody, an incredible intelligent and intellectual person (like yourself) with a material body came into being. Now, for you to believe that such a miracle could have happened, you must actually have a much bigger faith than that of a person simply believing and admitting that there is a Higher Power, a God who created him for a specific plan and purpose!

  6. Jason Calley says:

    Here is an observation.

    We have had (relatively good) Arctic ice information for about 37 years. Jim Hunt repeats that “The data says “CT Arctic sea ice area is the lowest it’s been for this day of the year for the 37 years in the satellite record”. There are 365 days each year. Even if the sea ice is absolutely normal and unchanged on any long term basis, and has only some unspecified but normal variation around the long term mean, we would expect a new daily low about once each month. Is a daily low a crisis? Is a daily low even unexpected?

    (Yes, I understand that this discounts auto-correlation, but that can go either way, for highs as well as lows. All that auto-correlation will do is to shift the incidence of highs or lows so that they tend to appear in runs.)

    • AndyG55 says:

      Arctic sea ice level is almost exactly where any logical person expect it to be

      Still at high levels as it recovers from the LIA, but at a low level compared to the last 40 or so years because of the phase of the AMO and a burst warmth from the El Nino.

      Also as the AMO would indicate, the NATURUAL downward cycle of the Arctic sea ice has being basically level for the last several years as the AMO goes through its turning point.

      There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING UNUSUAL or UNNATURAL happening to the Arctic sea ice levels, and only a low-intellect gullible fool would think so.

      END OF STORY.!

      • AndyG55 says:

        oops… I really have to start double/triple checking my typing when using capitals.

      • Jason Calley says:

        Hey AndyG55! “There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING UNUSUAL or UNNATURAL happening to the Arctic sea ice levels”

        Agreed! It is especially foolish to get excited over an occasional daily record. That sort of reaction is exactly the same as people who get excited over some common weather event and claim it shows long term climate trends. Daily ice lows should be only slightly less common than the occurrence of a full moon. “Oh my God! The moon is full! We are all going to die!” 🙂

  7. Andy DC says:

    Far better to have a slight retreat of ice than reverting back to the climate of 15,000 years ago, with mile thick glaciers south of Chicago. The natural variability of climate is obviously far greater than the relatively tiny changes over the last 100 years.

  8. Adam Ward says:

    It seems that questions that require some modicum of intelligence to answer are Jim Hunt repellent. Henry P. you may be able to market that.

    • Jim Hunt says:

      I’ve only just received notification of this comment too, which seems somewhat misplaced in the thread. Does this answer your implied question Adam?


      • gator69 says:

        Jim is still trying to generate visits to his lonely blog. Sad.

        Jim thinks ice is more important than the 7 million innocent humans who starve to death each year. If people like Jim would advocate or the starving millions instead of ice, we could save them. But Jim is more interested in pushing forward a green agenda than saving human lives.

        So much for moral high ground Jim.

  9. Henry P says:

    where is my comment?

  10. Henry P says:

    I still donot see my previous comment to Jim Hunt?

    • Neal S says:

      There are certain words or links which cause the comment engine that wordpress is using, to silently swallow a comment. This may have happened to your comment. When this happens, Tony has nothing to do with it or about it. It is strictly a function of the commenting engine in use. Gail has run into this frequently. It can be a good idea to either compose comments offline, and cut-n-paste, so that they can easily be tried again after some finagling of words or links that may be responsible for a no-show comment, or to make a snap-shot of a comment before posting to save for such a possibility.

      Without more details of what was in your possibly swallowed comment, we cannot give more specific insight.

      • RAH says:

        Too many links will also cause the comment to be lost. That has happened to me several times. And I think that is also part of the reason for Gail having problems with some of her posts.

      • Henry P says:

        Thanks Neal. I suspect that there is a limit to the amount of links that can be given in a comment. If there are too many, it shuts you down. I have reduced the links now and the comment came up nicely.

  11. Henry P says:

    @Jim Hunt

    There are countless test records showing the so-called 87 year Gleissberg cycle,
    for example here,

    This was picked up by Yousef, I refer specifically to tables II and III

    Click to access cli267_293.pdf

    As you can see, countless records showing a 80-100 year weather cycle.

    Going by the most accurate isotope investigations the cycle was pinpointed at between 86-88 year, let us make it 87 years on average. Now 2016-87= 1929. This was also confirmed by myself looking at specific records on maximum and minimum temperatures.

    Now, unfortunately, we do not have any record of ice around 1929. But there was an eyewitness report of the melting of ice around 1923:

    Noting that antarctic ice is currently increasing, my question to you Jim is simply this: why do you think that arctic melt now is more than 87 years ago?

  12. Henry P says:

    Dear Jim
    I appreciate your effort. However, I doubt the result.
    I think all they did is to backtrack the current trend to what they think it must have been, from the current [linear] trend that they observed. That would be exactly wrong. The climate is ruled by non linear processes. So, in fact, I think the 1929 result that you show us is a projected result. There are no data on ice extent before the 1950’s. If there are such data, please show them to me? In fact, to tell you the truth, they did not even do standard re-calibration of thermometers at regular intervals before the 1950’s. Show me a re-calibration certificate of a thermometer dated before 1948? That means that comparing current temperatures with temperature records before 1950 is like comparing apples with pears…[unless, like me, you decided to look at the rate of change, in K/yr, set out against time, rather than look at anomalies, to pick up trends]

    Anyway, people having to shove snow later and later in the year due to “climate change” will soon begin to doubt that all of this is due to “man made global warming”.
    Truth is, that there various solar cycles, that are all documented and provable.
    11,6 years (Schwabe)
    22 years (Hale Nicholson)
    87 years (Gleissberg)
    210 years (DeVries)

    It is relatively easy for me to determine where we are in the Gleissberg, as I picked it up from my own results, here:

    Note that I did this investigation in 2012, even before I knew about the Gleissberg cycle.
    I can correlate the above result on max. T [give or take 1 or 2 yrs] with
    1) solar polar magnetism
    2) position of the planets
    3) concentration of certain substances TOA manufactured by the Sun’s most energetic radiation
    4) minimum temperatures [from 1973]
    5) means [from 1973]

    Take your pick.
    I am not sure where we are in the DeVries.

    Are you not puzzled about the fact that antarctic ice is increasing?
    Look here:

    Do spend some time on looking objectively at the above results of the ice core analysis.
    Climate has been changing, like forever……naturally.
    It does mean of course that it is possible of a drought similar to the Dust Bowl drought coming to America. I think Tony has a post somewhere here of max. T measured in 1936?
    Live with it, or if you live up there, rather go south, …..
    Best wishes

    • Chewer says:

      Missing from the conversation lately, is the fact that 99% of modern man’s development has occurred during the Holocene glaciation state. This fleeting geological moment covering the past 12 thousand + years in this inter-glacial has been a blessing, but the inevitable is just around the corner, and since man has not changed in appearance or his thought processing in the past 35 thousand years, we can expect more of the same from our neurotic warmista’s and greenies.
      Nature has provided marked differences in species (including hominids) for many thousands of years with creature diversification, some with overwhelming fears, fear of their fellow man, fear of the unknown, fear of the future….
      Since modern man does not understand his or the planets past, we are certainly geared to repeat the same mistakes over and over again…

    • Jim Hunt says:


      “There are no data on ice extent before the 1950’s. If there are such data, please show them to me?”

      I already did that. I take it you didn’t bother to read the Met Office’s recommended introduction to their data set?

      • Henry P says:

        OK, Jim I read it now.
        it says,
        “HadISST1 temperatures are reconstructed using a two stage reduced-space optimal interpolation procedure”

        “SSTs near sea ice are estimated using statistical relationships between SST and sea ice concentration”

        Henry says

        So? It is exactly like I said. …. Your observations are based on back interpolations of current data (from 1981)
        It looks to me for sure that they would assume that the current downward trend is linear, (with a few bumps, here and there, which are in fact due to the shorter solar cycles) whereas in fact I determined that it is completely non-linear, i.e. over the long term it forms a sine wave consisting of 43 years of warming and 43 years of cooling.See my previous comment.

        There is no man made warming. There is only natural warming and natural cooling. Currently the long term trend is cooling. [although 2015 is an exception due to the current [very] bright sun]

      • AndyG55 says:

        “There are no data on ice extent before the 1950’s.”

        As Jimbo the LIAR is still unable to admit, there is plenty of data that shows that the Arctic sea ice was often ZERO during the first 3/4 of the Holocene.

        Stop being a lying, deceitful coward Jimbo.

  13. Henry P says:

    Seems Jim Hunt is not interested in discussing real science. See here:

    I just wonder what this guy means [speaking of Tony]
    “a purveyor of porky pies”

    translated {South African} English?

    • Neal S says:

      There is a slang term “telling porkies” that means telling lies. I am guessing this is a variation on that. But looking at the chart posted at that link above, All I can think of is that 1929 is long before the satellite record and there is no way they could have accurate sea ice concentration info for that time period. Like many things, the data is made up and when the data is made up, it is made up to support the lie of AGW. But if you noticed the image given for September 2015 would lead one to believe that there should have been many northwest passage opportunities then. Where are all the successful transits?

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