Bill Nye wants to make bets about hottest year/decade ever.
My bet for Bill Nye is that the average percentage of hot days (over 90 degrees) at all NOAA United States Historical Climatology Network stations, will be lower this year/decade than it was in the 1930’s.
Are you up to the bet, Bill? Or do you believe that “hot” means something other than hot?
Ha I just read about this bet in the comment section of the Washington Post. It was an article by the buffoon Chris Mooney.
I doubt if any wager (bet) with Bill Nye would be productive.
I hope that he accepts the bet… but I doubt it.
Of course, the modern ‘hotter’ climate, means that all the midrange temperatures are higher, but the highest temps are not higher and the lowest temps are not higher. Think of it as a type of ‘stealth’ global warming. Obviously this is the most dangerous and insidious kind of global warming. The kind that you can’t even see by observing max and min temps. This is the global warming that sneaks up on you and then WHAM! And that is why we have to ….
And obviously, mere engineers and non-climastrologists are NOT qualified to properly evaluate these things. You must trust the pronouncements of the climanati .. or else.
All of the above is to be treated as sarcasm … but my sarc on and sarc off within angle brackets did not show up.
Phew!! that was a tough read…
No worries, Neal, we got it. Sarc tags are for wusses, anyway.
eliminate the brackets and they will show: wordpress automatically supresses html tags even if they are not valid like “/sarc”.
A suggestion. Make sure you specify that your bet concerns the original temp records, not the constantly altered ones. Of course, that might mean he won’t take the bet. That would prove he knows about the constant tampering to cool the past and warm the present and is disingenuous.
They don’t adjust daily temperatures
Yet .. But for $20,000 …
Here’s a nicer version of my last post in case the content caused moderation:
C’mon Bill, take the bet. If you don’t my quality of life will be severely compromised.
$20,000? Bet him something he can afford to make good on, like a cup of coffee in the Starbucks across the street from the New York times. Winner gets to set the date and invite friends.
Real Science here? – there is none. Anyone can cherry pick and recite facts that support their position. Real science includes consideration of all evidence not just some of the evidence. Here is a set of data – – so what. It doesn’t scientifically prove global warming.
The Fort Collins weather station is a well known Urban Heat Island, and they built a parking lot around the station in 2000. Your cherry picking is disgusting.
“Anyone can cherry pick…”
Lol, yeah.. He cherry picked over 100 years of data from all USHCN stations. That the data includes only > 90F is the whole point of the exercise, which has gone all the way over your head.
Thank you – my point exactly. All cherry picking is disgusting when used for scientific arguments. That’s all you are doing with this site……….cherry picking and not looking at all the data – for and against – whatever your hypotheses are.
I, for one, appreciate the fact that at least one person posting here regonizes the simple fact that all of the 20th century warming is because of UHI. Thank you.
I like your sense of humor!
Likewise. I think you are a funny guy.
So you think UHI started melting mountain glaciers globally together with the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets and global sea ice (volume)? Small wonder sea-levels are rising..
cfool is an idiot who refuses to learn the truth from the last time he brought this up.
cdschmuck those things have been melting for centuries
Sooo what does this have to do with Bill Nye and a bet? I wanna know what exactly your objecting to on the subject of this post? If you have an objection to the data presented on other posts then please post it there so we can get the context. Coming here and making general accusations means nothing to any of us other than you are afraid to dispute specifics.
ST likes to stop by every now and then, make these broad accusations, respond with platitudes and depart. Here’s a case in point, if you remember, RAH.
For all I know, he could be Bill Nye the Science Guy! 😀
And right on cue, ST does it again.
Hey you need to post a trigger warning when including videos with Rachel Maddow!
No trigger warnings for deniers and hardened climate criminals!
Read the quote under RM attributed to BN in your photo; it is truly astonishing, comparing geographic parameters vs time parameters, That comment should illustrate BN an the whole CAGW industry complex for the shill/farce/front/sham/con/power grab that it is,
Why does Bill Nye dress like a clown?
Oh, I see.
How does patriotism come into this?
Oh, I see, he wants the Vaterland to rule the globe.
John Silver says:
April 20, 2016 at 7:41 pm
Why does Bill Nye dress like a clown?
He got his wardrobe ideas from PeeWee Herman
Both dress the same and make the same faces but Bill Nye’s the bigger clown. PeeWee never said the IPCC got a scientific Nobel Prize.
Only a complete moron would describe the entire US temperature record as “cherry picking”
…and in the same post pick ONE station with known UHI issues, classic!
Only a complete moron thinks that the US temperature record can prove something about Global temperatures.
So was the Bill Nye bet on global temperatures or not?
Guess it escapes you that Tony can offer any bet he wants no matter just a Nye did. So typical of arrogant asses to believe they THEY are the only ones that have to power to set the context.
BTW Nye really doesn’t have a clue about what he’s talking about. He calls Joe Bastaridi out with a bet that 2016 would be in the top 10 hottest years and that the decade would be the hottest on record.
Joe, knowing that the warming effects of an El Nino extend for months beyond it’s peak has been forecasting or over a year that 2016 would be a hot year. So Bill Nye the Science guy is asking Joe to bet against himself.
What a drag it must be to have renowned scientist and climate expert Bill Nye on your side of the argument, Skiff.
Cognitive dissonance: psychological conflict resulting from incongruous beliefs and attitudes held simultaneously
ST, I agree that cherry picking is bad, but Nye cherry picked his bet which had little relevance to climate change. This “cherry pick” is relevant to the debate as it highlights a logical inconsistency with surface temperatures.
It is hard to explain why temperatures in the US are much higher today than the 1930’s, but it was hotter then by using T max.
Evidence of cherry picking on this site?
I thought not. Evidence my dear boy……..evidence. Here this might help you:
Look at the trend in record lows.
Lows are warming because of urban heat island effects. When you have tens of thousands of homes being centrally heated, All of that heat leaks out into air. Snow removal, asphalt also contribute …
There is not an urban heat island in Leech Lake MN or East Tawas MI.
Leech Lake was much hotter in the 1930’s
Do you have site surveys for Leech Lake or East Tawas? Some of these spots out in the middle of nowhere end up in the middle of somewhere, say, a garage pops up next to the sensors. Just asking; I don’t know, but maybe it could be checked on Anthony Watts’ surface station site.
There’s no heat island at Coal Creek Canyon, CO, a co-op station next to a ranch in the Colorado mountains, where I’ve been the observer for 32 years. And no garages, BBQs, runways, etc. have popped up near the sensors.
IPCC predicts it should be warming 7F per century here, or 1 degree F in 15 years.
In the past 15 years it has cooled 1 degree F. Both highs and lows are cooling.
Perhaps the adjustors can add a warming correction of 2 degrees due to the installation of a major airport 30 miles to my east some years ago so the data can match the models.
So you’ll say one station doesn’t count for a hill of beans in this crazy world of ours. But this one station is located where IPCC models are predicting the most rapid warming in the whole USA (south of Alaska).
Is that a generator I see that is next to the Stevenson Screen at the Leech Lake airport?
Why don’t you give up? Steve is annihilating everyone of your posts with data and logic lol!
How can UHI initiate retreats for mountain glaciers, Greenland and big parts of Antarctica, while causing sea-level rise and loss of sea ice volume? Where is the extra heat for this coming from?
Glaciers have been retreating and advancing throughout geologic history, no “extra heat” necessary.
It has been warming gradually over time since the last glacial period. Since then glaciers for the most part have tended to recede over all. Doesn’t take UHI.
Antarctica is gaining ice mass according to the two latest surveys which are more comprehensive than any done before. Even the unstable Western Ice Shelf is gaining a little mass according to one of these studies despite the recession of the face of the major glaciers there as a result of geothermal activity which has recently been found to be far more extensive than ever imagined before.
And Greenland SMB is running above the mean according to DMI.
So I have no friggen clue to where your getting your information about the losses in that area. As for sea ice? What are you afraid of?
“Here is a set of data – – so what. It doesn’t scientifically prove global warming.”
and I agree. Are you comparing a two site presentation against the entire US HCN record? And HTH does this relate to a friendly $20K bet on verifiable data?
Reblogged this on TheFlippinTruth.
Again look at the lows…….and the highs for that matter. If this is real science why don’t you post this data and others like it?
Those graphs are completely fraudulent and based on adjusted temperatures. I have blogged about it numerous times.
You only need to read the reports to know they are fraudulent. The authors are usually honest enough to say how the data have been modified or that some data points have been eliminated. They then provide some weasel worded “justification” (i.e., rationalization) for the manipulation. As soon as I see this kind of unscientific nonsense I know the “study” isn’t actual science.
ST, you didn’t get this part which is why your chart here is misleading:
“Average percentage of days over 90F (32C) at all US HCN stations”
It is much worse than that. The NOAA area of hot afternoons claims are completely fraudulent.
Those graphs are completely fraudulent and based on adjusted temperatures. I have blogged about it numerous times.
He missed what you said about YOUR HCH chart.
Econaziism is a religion of collectivist faith, not testing of hypotheses. These miserable creatures were identified as herd-followers in the Opinions and Social Pressure experiment of 1955 (which their literature studiously skirts). So long as a different herd of collectivist morons, such as the Republican Party, seeks to coerce and murder people over victimless nonsense, they become our worst enemies by agreeing with us. Every shred of objective evidence is drowned in the din of hatred for those (other) superstitious bullies. Furthermore, the economic demand for a system of looting that pays parasites to believe lies, and pays them in someone else’s tinkling cash, is biology in action. Both the econazis and Landover Baptists are the same thing: they believe freedom is divisible, and that coercion is a solution. Ignoring that reinforces to the talking past each other we see in the blog.
Landover Baptist Church is satire. Are you suggesting that econaziism is comedy?
Where’s the proof? And how the “adjustments” kick-starting glacier, ice sheet and sea-ice melt? Sounds like magic!
cfool still cannot accept the reality that glaciers etc have been melting periodically since the LIA, which was the COLDEST period in the last 10,000 years, and not a period we want to go back to.
cfool does not even know when he is parodying himself.
Nice video posted with Richard Lindzen.
Oh that’s right – I forgot. It’s all made up so people can get funding and keep their already tenured positions. And it’s a conspiracy because scientists hate to challenge one another to prove they are right……..that’s why there is so much consensus.
I thought there might be science here but there isn’t. It’s been fun.
Do you want to take the bet?
“And it’s a conspiracy..”
A conspiracy is something that is hidden. These morons are going about it in full sight, and are wondering why skeptics have a problem with it.
“..because scientists hate to challenge one another to prove they are right..”
In the world of climate science, that is sadly true, because many are afraid to lose their funding.
“..that’s why there is so much consensus.”
Like there was consensus about the Sun revolving around the Earth, that the continents did not drift, that peptic ulcers were not being caused by bacteria, etc, etc, etc.
Real scientists know that science does not work by consensus.
There is honor among pack predators and swarm parasites precisely because they possess the means of inflicting harm. This is why both ecological and racial eugenics National Socialists are so big on allowing only government enforcers and tax collectors to have firearms. If leeches and ticks could coerce us by voting, the law would promptly require that our fingernails be removed at birth, and a later amendment would amputate opposable thumbs and mandate lobotomies.
Obviously, ST does not believe his own propaganda — otherwise he would jump at the risk free chance to win $20,000.
Bill Nye is not a “science guy” by any stretch, he’s a performer, and has been virtually his entire adult life (yes, once upon a time he got an engineering degree, but that doesn’t make him an engineer). Thirty five years ago (or so) he started out lip syncing other people’s words in Seattle bars, and that’s what he still does today; he will mouth any words that he thinks will give the most lucrative performance. What you can say about him is that he has made a pretty good performance career for himself; but no one should bother to debate someone who only repeats other’s words.
Who cares what the temperature is in the continental US? It’s just 4% of the area of the planet!
Here’s the hint, it’d “Global Warming”, so everywhere’s getting warmer (Supposedly).
However, the most studied & thermometered country isn’t warming.
How much of the planet does the Arctic cover? Look at all the fuss made to show Arctic temps aren’t “properly” measured, with the Pausebuster work by Karl et al.
How about we look at summer temperatures across the Central England Temperature record?
Look at the global temperature record, that is the way to go.
The ONLY place where there is warming trend is the tropics and northern hemisphere.
There is NO Global warming…. just El Nino and AMO based WEATHER.
You fools are going to be really running for your Al Gore crevasses once the AMO starts to drop and the La Nina starts to grip.
Will you stay and face the utter humiliation? or crawl back up big Al’s crevasse where you came from?
The problem is the “global temperature record” is not global when you talk about surface temperatures taken thermometer. The temperatures for huge areas on land are interpolated from stations that are far apart over large portions of the globe. IOW there are NO thermometer readings for those areas. What we are being told is global surface temperature data does not even come close to being “global”. If you want good coverage you have to go with satellites measuring the lower troposphere. What Tony is saying in his bet is that the reference used be the most complete and accurate surface station network in the world over a given geographic area because that is what the US has.
Skiff the Science Guy believes that there is something called “global temperature record”.
He could be a regular on Rachel Maddow’s Progressive Science Now! TV program and explain the intricacies of climate science to all of her 27 viewers.
GLOBAL surface data my a**e
Got to http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/stdata/
scroll down to the map.
HUGE areas where there are no thermometers, Canada, Africa, large swathes of South America.
Heck, its also pretty sparse through western Europe, Asia, Indonesia, Australasia
And you can bet that a VERY large proportion of the ones that do exist are heavily UHI affected,
All this blanks space is IN-FILLED with FABRICATED data and/or homogenised to urban heat islands.
The whole surface data set is a TOTAL MESS and useful for one purpose and one purpose only….
But, Andy, Skiff is baking in his house because of you! His whole house is getting hotter! True, the living room where he has most of his thermometers is the same or even cooler but that doesn’t count because it’s just one room of the house.
It’s that the thermometers in his remodeled kitchen and in the mechanical room with a new furnace show much hotter than before! And when he extrapolates from these two measurements over all the remaining rooms in the house, the garage and the garden shed where he has no thermometers, he discovers that that they all got hotter, too.
His spreadsheet tells him his whole house is hotter and he’s frying just looking at it! And on top of it, he can see from the trend line of his whole house temperature record that it will self-ignite at 2037!
So stop arguing with him. It’s science.
See? The Skiff brainwashee expects heat to simply stay put. So if a 90% sample failed to match the prophesies of its Revealed Faith, that sample would, ipso facto, NOT be representative, but explained away as the workings of some sort of prearranged cabal wrought by sinister deniers. What we confront is superstition armed with the political power to order men with guns into action, EXACTLY the situation that makes the Islamofascist States no less a threat to human survival than Germany’s Christian National Socialism or modern Econaziism. I recommend a visit to the Holocaust Museum. It displays the record of rightsless coercive superstition collectivized into control over a political state.
The Nazi’s were lead by an atheist.
[It’s just 4% of the area of the planet!] Yes but it has the best/longest set of temp stations in the world! So it is in fact a very good proxy for the WHOLE world.
4% does not cover the whole world my friend..
Neither does the surface record.. not by a LONG shot,
and what there is, is of highly dubious quality or totally unknown quality.
It is indistinguishable from JUNK !!!
That 4% is the only part of the world with a purpose built, equally space, un-affected surface temperature network…
and that surface temperature network almost exactly the same ZERO trend as the satellite data sets over that area.
This is called sample validation…. do you know the word “validate” as used in science..
Since you like the models and the junk surface data with its manifest in-filling, fabrication and maladjustments.. I’m guessing you don’t.
But then, you have always shown that IGNORANCE is your only strong suit.
OK I’ll play.
If the whole world is warming, why isn’t it shown in the 4% of the whole world that is adequately instrumented? What is unique about the 4% of the world that is instrumented? And further, if the 4% of the world that is instrumented is not warming, but the rest of the world is warming; why is that? Why has the warming missed the United States? Settled science and all, I’m sure the consensus has a ready answer that will explain the profound non-physicality of such a preposterous situation.
The whole world is NOT warming.
Only those parts affected by the release of energy during the 2 El Ninos in 1998 and 2015, and by large urban expansion (a very small percentage of the globe, just smeared over a large area), show any warming.
The Southern extratropics has not warmed this century, and the south pole region has cooled slightly over the full period of the satellite record.
The winter of 2014/15 brought record snow totals to portions of southeastern New England. Additionally,over 90% of Boston Logan Airport snowfall during the winter fell during phases 7 and 8 of the Madden–Julianoscillation (MJO) index. This motivated the authors to investigate potential connections between intensesoutheastern New England snowstorms and the MJO in the historical record. It was found that southeasternNew England snowfall, measured since the 1930s at several stations in the region, recorded higher thanaverage winter snowfalls when enhanced MJO convection was located over the western Pacific and theWestern Hemisphere (phases 7–8). Similarly, snowfall was suppressed when enhanced MJO convection waslocated over the Maritime Continent (phases 4–5). The MJO also modulates the frequency of nor’easters,which contribute the majority of New England’s snowfall, as measured by reanalysis-derived cyclone tracks.These tracks were more numerous during the same MJO phases that lead to enhanced snowfall, and they wereless common during phases with less snowfall.1. IntroductionSoutheastern New England experienced one of itssnowiest winters in history in 2014/15, with many cities inthe region approaching or exceeding seasonal snowfallrecords. For example, Logan Airport in Boston experi-enced 110.6 in. (1 in.52.54 cm) of snow during thewinter, eclipsing the old record of 107.6 in. set in 1995/96.February 2015 was especially noteworthy for LoganAirport, with 64.8 in. of snow falling during the month,shattering the old record for a single month of 43.3 in. setin January 2005. Other southern New England citiesapproached record seasonal snowfall totals as well, withTF Green Airport in Providence observing 76.2 in.,trailing only 1995/96 when 106.1 in. fell.These dramatic snowfall totals motivated us to considerthe mechanisms behind intense snowfall events in south-eastern New England. In particular, we considered thepossibility that a tropical influence might have increased thefrequency of these events. One of the primary modes ofsubseasonal tropical variability is the Madden–Julian oscil-lation (MJO) (Madden and Julian 1971,1972). The MJOpropagates around the globe in 30–70 days and typically hasits convective origins over the Indian Ocean. The MJOmodulates many different tropical weather phenomenaaround the globe (Zhang 2013) including tropical cyclonefrequency (Camargo et al. 2009,Klotzbach and Oliver 2015,Schreck et al. 2012), as well as flooding and drought in partsof the tropics (Wheeler et al. 2009,Hidayat and Kizu 2010).The MJO also influences midlatitude weather. Forexample,Jones (2000)andBond and Vecchi (2003)Corresponding author address: Philip J. Klotzbach, Departmentof Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, West LaPorteAve., Fort Collins, CO 80523.E-mail: email@example.comAPRIL2016K L O T Z B A C H E T A L .1355DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0434.1Ó2016 American Meteorological Society
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)
The MJO is an intraseasonal fluctuation or “wave” occurring in the global tropics. The MJO is responsible
for the majority of weather variability in these regions and results in variations in several important
atmospheric and oceanic parameters which include both lower- and upper-level wind speed and direction,
cloudiness, rainfall, sea surface temperature (SST), and ocean surface evaporation. The MJO is a naturally
occurring component of our coupled ocean-atmosphere system and the typical length of the MJO cycle or
wave is approximately 30-60 days (Madden and Julian, 1971, 1972; Madden and Julian, 1994; Zhang,
Click to access MJO_summary.pdf
Real Science puts the finger on why the ideology of altruistic mystical collectivism simply has to send men with guns out to forbid betting. Gambling relies on probability, the mathematical grasp of which requires knowledge, not faith. The settling of bets requires objective evidence. In a free country, putting declarative statements to the test of wagers makes for salutary transfer payments from the superstitious and clueless to those having some grasp of methods of inference. The ban on gambling is another instance of how coercion entrenches dishonesty.
Hey oiltranslator! As you point out, wagering shifts money from the ignorant to the knowledgeable. That is a bad move. Bad. Baaaaaaddddddd! A good move is one that shifts money from the productive to the unproductive. That is a good move. Gooooooooood! 🙂
Pardon the sarcasm above, but on a more serious vein, you say “coercion entrenches dishonesty”. That is one of the more profound and accurate things I have heard in a while. Voluntary transactions increase the well being of all parties involved, and over the long run increase honesty and charity as well. Once the metaphorical gun (or knife or club or fist) of coercion enters into the arrangement, inevitably at least one party (the coerced party) will become poorer and less free. This is a point that bears unending repetition.
(Note that I have no complaints about weapons used in self defense against those who have initiated coercion.)
I thought more skeptics were into mystical religions and other mumbo-jumbo…might explain their ideological bias?
Your post is as empty as your brain…… Washed totally away.
No it are alarmists like you that believe man through government can a have significant of control global climate and so have to believe that man or government is in fact a God. This despite the fact that our known natural history indicates that the climate on this world and CO2 levels has changed dramatically many times before man ever existed but when life on this planet did exist. You believe that CO2, a gas necessary for life as we know it, is at or approaching dangerous levels despite the fact that it was many 100s of times higher at a time when our primate predecessors not only survived but thrived.
Hey cdq, what do you think of the topic of this post? Should Bill take the bet? Why or why not? Please use evidence, your “thought” slot appears to be faulty.
Sorry, wrong question, pmc. You are talking to cdqgfj.
It’s not “what do you think” but rather “how do you feel about the topic of this post”.
And the rest is too complicated, anyway.
“I thought more skeptics were into mystical religions and other mumbo-jumbo…”
Says the scientifically illiterate troll that apparently believes that the temperature of the planet can be controlled by increased taxation…
They tax your wealth as you make it and then once your dead they rob your grave to take another huge chunk of what you accumulated. But that still isn’t enough.
“We anticipate that the 2016 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have approximately
average activity. The current weakening El Niño is likely to transition to either neutral or
La Niña conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. While the tropical
Atlantic is relatively warm, the far North Atlantic is quite cold, potentially indicative of a
negative phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation. We anticipate a near-average
probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in
the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded
that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them.
They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is
Click to access apr2016.pdf
All of the hurricane forecasts seem to be calling for an average or slightly less than average Atlantic Hurricane season. Weatherbell has a higher ACE index than the European which is calling for a slightly lower than normal season.
I’m thinking that 2017 is going to see a spike in Atlantic Hurricanes if this coming La Nina is even close to as deep as Scripps institute is calling for. And the La Nina is coming for sure.
BTW Joe takes Bill Nye to task in his update today (4/20/16)
Apparently Nye can’t even keep straight what Joe told him when they debated a couple years ago on TV.
In Texas still strong rain.
It takes a storm in Houston.
The forecast 500 hPa (5 km) in Europe.
Snow will fall in the UK and Germany.
Tony/Steve….journal Nature says you’ve been right all along!
Global warming has made the weather better for most in U.S.
Recent improvement and projected worsening of weather in the United States
I’ll bet Nye that the arctic wasn’t ice free in 2012 or any year after.
Bill Nye has not responded to my offer to bet offer $100,000 that there will be Arctic Ice in 2030.
Neither did he or any of his colleagues take me up on my bet that in 2050, the polar bears will be doing just fine.