The Thousand Year Rainfall Fallacy

Every time we get a big rain in the US, climate morons start claiming it was a 1,000 year event

So what are they doing wrong?

Your odds of winning the lottery are very small, but the odds of someone winning the lottery are quite high. What these geniuses are doing is conflating the odds of one individual station getting a 20 inch rain, with the odds of any station getting a 20 inch rain.

Big rains are not rare in the US. Alvin, Texas got 43 inches of rain in one day in 1979.

We heard exactly the same 1,000 year nonsense after the 20 inch rains of 2013 in Colorado, but Colorado got 24 inches of rain in six hours in 1935.


There are records of many other comparable rains in the US, but people make the same mistake generation after generation.

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10 Jan 1871 – IMAGINARY CHANGES OF CLIMATE. (Pall Mall Gazette.)

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Arctic Sea Ice Extent Second Highest For The Date Since 2005

After the shortest melt season on record, and record growth of sea ice in September, Arctic sea ice extent is now the second highest in the DMI record for the date.

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Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

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Ice thickness has increased by 40% over the past five years.

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Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png (2488×1960)

NASA’s top climate prophet says the Arctic is ice-free.

The Argus-Press – Jun 24, 2008

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The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

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EPA And CSIRO – Taking Sea Level Fraud To Spectacular New Heights

Incredible fraud from the EPA and CSIRO. The EPA now claims that tide gauges show sea level rising faster than satellites, with 3 inches (76 mm) sea level rise since 1990. That 3.0 mm/year.


Sea Level | Climate Change | US EPA

Earlier versions of this same graph showed the exact opposite, that tide gauge rates were slower than satellites. Apparently someone at EPA recently tampered with it to make it scarier.

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The EPA tide gauge claim of 3 mm/year is almost double what NOAA calculates

absolute global sea level rise is believed to be 1.7-1.8 millimeters/year

Sea Level Trends – Global Regional Trends

But it is worse than it seems. 85% of NOAA tide gauges report less sea level rise than the EPA claims is the average for tide gauges.


Sea Level Trends – MSL global stations trends table

In 1982, NASA showed just over three inches of sea level rise from 1880 to 1980, compared to double that amount in EPA/CSIRO graph.

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The next image overlays the EPA/CSIRO graph on the 1982 NASA graph at the same scale. The EPA data is completely fake.

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The EPA claims are in direct contradiction to current NOAA and earlier EPA and NASA data. But they have a political agenda being directed by the White House, and facts are not allowed to interfere.

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Rampant Sea Level Fraud In Academia And Government

In 1982, NASA showed just over three inches (8 cm) of sea level rise from 1880 to 1980. They also showed a sharp slowdown in sea level rise rates after 1950.

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Three inches isn’t very scary, so the EPA has doubled that figure, and shows six inches of sea level rise from 1880 to 1980 – with completely fake acceleration after 1950.

Trends_in_global_average_absolute_sea_level,_1870-2008_(US_EPA) (1)Trends in global average absolute sea level, 1870-2008 (US EPA) – Sea level rise

This graph overlays the two graphs at the same scale. The EPA data is political, not scientific.


Tide gauges show a slowdown in sea level rise rates, so government propaganda agencies tamper with them and now simply ignore them, instead using incredibly poor interpretations of satellite data since 1993. But even this data is being tampered with over time.

In 2004, the University of Colorado (who got beaten up by Oregon yet again last night) showed sea level rise rate of 2.8 mm/year, with an error of +/- 0.4.

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 That wasn’t very scary, so they have since changed the data and moved it outside of their own error bars to 3.3 mm/year, using a Global Isostatic Adjustment which is 100% fraudulent in the context of sea surface height. That adjustment was intended to calculate ocean depth as the sea floor sinks, but has no bearing on the accuracy of measurement of sea level by satellites.

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2015_rel2: Global Mean Sea Level Time Series (seasonal signals removed) | CU Sea Level Research Group

The image below overlays them at the same scale. The University of Colorado simply altered the data to make it look a little scarier.


But here is the real smoking gun of fraud from the IPCC.

In 1990 the IPCC said :

there is no convincing evidence of an acceleration in global sea level rise during the twentieth century

there is weak evidence for an acceleration over the last 2-3 centuries


In the 2013 report, they say the exact opposite

The 2013 IPCC report (AR5) concluded, “there is high confidence that the rate of sea level rise has increased during the last two centuries, and it is likely that GMSL (Global Mean Sea Level) has accelerated since the early 1900’s

Trends in global average absolute sea level, 1870-2008 (US EPA) – Sea level rise – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Very little of what you hear about the climate from government or academia has any validity. They are simply fabricating data for political and monetary purposes. It is a $29 billion dollar per year RICO style racket, and the biggest scam in history.

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Arctic Gained 20,000 Manhattans Of Ice In September

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Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut

Arctic sea ice experienced the earliest minimum on record this year, and has seen record growth in September.

The Sierra Cub says the Arctic has been ice-free for two years.


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More On NOAA Model Uncertainty

The turquoise cone below shows NOAA’s Joaquin “Forecast Uncertainty” as of September 30 at 11:32 PM. The hurricane is currently 677 km east of the forecast track, but their forecast uncertainty cone was only 210 km. Their actual uncertainty was more than three times larger than what their model predicted.

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Joaquin is currently forecast to move towards Ireland as a strong tropical storm.

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These are their good models. Their climate models are completely useless, and have 0% accuracy. Barack Obama then takes impossibly stupid interpretations of completely useless models, and uses them as an excuse to wreck our energy infrastructure.  The US press cheers this treachery, and refuses to publish any accurate information.

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Gavin Doesn’t Need Any Actual Data

In the 1990 IPCC report, they showed that there was insufficient temperature data for analysis in much of the Arctic, most of the southern oceans, and all of the Antarctic.


In 1978, scientists agreed data south of 30S was too meager to be reliable.

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TimesMachine: January 5, 1978 –

A lack of data is no obstacle for Gavin however. He simply makes the data up.

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But this fraud is much worse than it seems. The fastest warming places on Gavin’s imaginary Earth are the areas with little or no data.

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Using fake data allows him to keep cooling the past and warming the present.


Gavin’s fake data massively skews temperature trends upwards, and then President Obama takes Gavin’s fake numbers on the road to assist in establishing his fake “climate” agreement.

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