Romm makes a nearly incomprehensible bet :
Let’s define “Ibet” as “the average of the Arctic sea ice extent minimum for the three years 2018-2020″ minus 4.6 million sq. km
The bet again is that we each agree to donate money to the others designated charity using the following formula:
Bastardi pays $1,000 minus [$1,000 times Ibet/2 Msqkm]. I pay $1,000 plus [$1,000 times Ibet/2 Msqkm].
If there is no change in the sea ice extent minimum, we both pay $1000. If extent drops 2 million sq. km, then Bastardi pays $2000 and I pay zero. If extent grows 2 million sq. km, then I pay 2k and Bastardi pays zero. If extent grows 3 million sq. km, then I pay 3k and Bastardi pays zero. Again, being very wrong is doubly costly.
If extent grows 3 million km^2, IBet = 3 million km^2. Using his formula, he pays $2500, not $3000 as he calculated.
$1000 + ($1000 * 3,000,000/2,000,000) = $2,500