http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110118_MilankovicPaper.pdf
Looks like the West Side Highway is now safe until 2085. Hansen granted it a reprieve. (He is good and merciful to our climate.)
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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Guess he had to change his mind again on the dooms day flood. 🙄
“Change his mind” says it all! That is a ridiculous graph. Why does it go so neatly up to exactly 5m in exactly 2100? Futhermore it makes what has been going on before 2000 look very flat. In other words he is admitting that to date, sea levels have not been rising at all.
I guess, but he still wants to ring the alarm, just alot later than he predicted so he can still have his doomsday flood without being around to eat crow. 😆
From the (weak) conclusion…
“BAU scenarios result in global warming of the order of 3-6°C. It is this scenario for which we assert that multi-meter sea level rise on the century time scale are not only possible, but almost dead certain. Such a huge rapidly increasing climate forcing dwarfs anything in the peleoclimate record. Antarctic ice shelves would disappear and the lower reaches of the Antarctic ice sheets would experience summer melt comparable to that on Greenland today.”
“…but almost dead certain.”
Is that anything like, “Maybe I’m sure’? As for the mounds of gratuitous hyperbole, I leave that for those that follow.
Wow! Dr Hansen, you had me at ‘hello’.
To make this more clear in technical terms, think of Antarctica as being a giant barbecue waiting to be lit – after they find a lighter long enough at 7-11.
I saw one at Family Dollar Store today!
Maybe the red line is upside down. They do that sometimes in climate science.
Right side up it could track the logarithmic effect of increasing CO2 concentrations.
Assuming a steady increase in concentrations, shouldn’t temperature increase decelerate forthwith, rather than accelerate, according to “consensus” climate science?
I’m surprised more people haven’t jumped on this before. It left my jaw on the ground the first time I saw it. (Note that he presents it as a plausible scenario, not a prediction, but even so…)
Try doing the calculations for the radiative power imbalance over Antarctica and Greenland to get 2m of sea level rise in the last 7 years of the century. Only if the sun goes nova!
Have you considered what will happen when Guam tips over?
This maybe. 😆
Or this.
Hey, think about this. If guam can tip over, it means it is floating. If it is floating, then the sea level will not affect it! Hank Johnson must be a skeptic!
Hansen is expecting the Laurentide Ice Sheet to collapse again and LAKE AGASSIZ to drain into the Arctic Ocean in 2085.
Here is a link so you can know what to expect:
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/ndgs/ndnotes/Agassiz/Lake%20Agassiz.asp
But it will drain gradually over 20 years.
It took a few hundred years to drain before. The sea level rise rate was in Hansen’s projected ball park.
Just you wait! Greenland and Antarctica ice caps are going to fall into the ocean. It may not be in our lifetime or our children’s lifetime, but aren’t you willing to be taxed a few tens of thousands to save you great grandkids?
Even if one believed the 3.0C to 6.0C predictions, it would still take thousands of years for sea level to rise 5 metres.
In the last interglacial, temperatures got to 2.25C higher than today for about 10,000 years and sea level only made it to about +5 metres at the end of all those years.
Southern Greenland was still glaciated at the end of this period going by the ice cores which have drilled right to bedrock. No biologic material dating to the time period has been found in the various cores.
The interglacial at 450,000 years ago, however, was more similar to the predictions for the current one in that it lasted for 40,000 years (the current one may be 50,000 to 130,000 years). It was only about the 1.0C warmer in this interglacial and not 2.25C warmer as the last one was, but the ice cores indicate that the southern third of Greenland melted in this interglacial and some small trees even grew at the locations which are now under about 2 kms of ice.
So, Hansen and Alley, as much as they say they are using the paleoclimate evidence, are full of (the usual ending to this phrase).