Gavin Doesn’t Understand His Own Data

Yesterday on twitter I pointed out to Gavin that he calculates 1880 surface temperatures to 0.01 precision, despite not having any data for most of the land surface.

ScreenHunter_4012 Oct. 25 06.00

Gavin responded by claiming that his use of error bars means he is not calculating 0.01 precision.

ScreenHunter_4013 Oct. 25 06.01

I responded with the GISS data, and showed that he is reporting temperatures to 0.01 precision.

ScreenHunter_4014 Oct. 25 06.01

But here comes the real kicker. Gavin claims 0.1 error bars, but GISS has changed their own data by much more than that since 2001.

ScreenHunter_4015 Oct. 25 06.13
2001 version : wayback.archive.org/web/20010507……FigA.txt

current : data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.txt

The animation below alternates between the current graph with error bars, and the 2001 version. The points from the 1880’s are nearly 300% outside of Gavin’s top error bars.

GISSFigA2001vs2014

They are adjusting the data by a much larger amount than their own error bars, which is scientific gibberish.

Everything about NASA temperature data reeks of propaganda. It doesn’t pass the most basic sniff tests as legitimate data. The error bars are meaningless green crayon.

About Tony Heller

Just having fun
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24 Responses to Gavin Doesn’t Understand His Own Data

  1. daveandrews723 says:

    I’d be curious about you opinion of Carl Mears in light of this article he wrote… http://www.remss.com/blog/recent-slowing-rise-global-temperatures

    • I would guess that he has come under pressure from the climate mafia.

    • daveandrews723 says:

      It seems to me he is in lock step with Hansen, Mann, et al, despite his own RSS data.

    • An Inquirer says:

      I am very disappointed in Carl Mears. He calls people names which not only shows his own bias & lack of open-mindedness, but also is 100% off the mark. The people he criticize are not climate change denialists and they are not cherry-picking. I see a lot more denying and cherry-picking in his writing than I do in those he dismisses.

    • Anne Ominous says:

      Mears excuses the “pause” by blaming it on subduction to the deep ocean. But the most comprehensive study to date shows there ISN’T ANY “missing heat” in the deep ocean.

      http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2387.html

      Saying the “missing heat” was hiding in the deep ocean was really the last straw they had to grasp at, to try to show their warming models had any kind of validity. And now even that is shot down. There is no “missing heat”. It doesn’t exist.

      The models are invalid. It doesn’t get much simpler than that.

  2. Edmonton Al says:

    People like him [arrogant; think they are never wrong], will never admit that THEY are wrong.
    They will argue with you, or ignore you, or claim that you do not know what you are talking about.
    IMHO…………..

    • daveandrews723 says:

      AP science writer Seth Borenstein is very much on their side as well. He has no regard for any skeptical views of the CAGW hypothesis.

  3. tom0mason says:

    Nicely done Steven,
    another 100% agenda scamster toady, living fat on public money, mouths off and reveals that he is a technical moron (+/- 0.1ppb), fraudulently getting paid for what has been shown he does not understand (100% +/- 0.0000000001 ppm).

    About time for another distraction Gavin as everyone has notice how useless you are – again.

  4. geran says:

    Seeing Tony’s exchange with Gavin reminded me of the video someone posted here recently in which Gavin refused to debate Dr. Spencer. Afraid to debate Spencer? Really?

    Gavin’s courage must be proportional to his personal integrity.

  5. Steve Case says:

    “Green crayon”

    First chuckle of the day.

  6. SMS says:

    Years ago I worked in metrology. One of our favorite sayings was “measure it with a ruler, mark it with chalk and cut it with an ax”. Gavin has reversed the order but kept the meaning.

  7. Fred from Canuckistan says:

    Tell any lie, invent any data, corrupt any graph. That’s how you keep a job at NASA GISS and eventually get promoted up the ladder. Because fear mongering on behalf of your bosses and providing our dullards in the media with screaming headlines is really the job.

  8. Douglas Hoyt says:

    There is a way to get some idea of the error bars for 1880. Take the 1880 coverage and get the temperature from RSS for 1980 and compare it to the full global temperature for 1980 from RSS. Take the difference. Repeat for 1880 vs 1981, 1880 vs 1982, to 1880 vs 2013. You get about 34 differences. The standard deviation of these differences will give an error bar. A histogram of the differences would also be interesting.

    The error bar above will be a minimum error bar since it only accounts for lack of areal coverage. The real total error bar will be larger.

  9. squid2112 says:

    He claims error bars of 0.1C degrees for 1880 temperatures? … Do you honestly believe he can achieve that kind of accuracy while missing 90% of the data? Even 0.1C ? .. I would contend that he cannot achieve that sort of accuracy with 100% good data, let alone missing 90%. I would also contend that his 1880 could not possibly achieve accuracy within 1C, let alone 0.1C.

  10. talldave2 says:

    Thanks, I’ve pointed out repeatedly how ridiculous this is. Gavin said around 2004 or so that all the data was accurate to .1 degrees, even though nearly every temperature in the record has been changed by more than that since then.

  11. richard says:

    Another day, another kicking. Excellent work.

  12. Don says:

    Pssst…….. The missing heat is hiding on the Earth’s moon. Pass it along. LOL

  13. scp says:

    I have often wondered how NASA scientists managed to be exempt from the rules on significant digits that I learned in grade school, and again later in Numerical Analysis classes.

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