PIOMAS tells us that ice thickness is at an all time low. Here is their June forecast :
End of June: According to our model retrospective simulations, the ice in the Arctic has continued to thin at a remarkable rate. The statistical method based on the PIOMAS model analysis now is projecting a new record low ice extent. The best predictors are G1.0 (area withless than 1.0 m of ice) and G0.4 (area with less than 0.4 m of ice) which give nearly identical results. Using the same one as last month (G1.0) the predicted extent is 3.96 +/- 0.34 million square kilometers. The R2 value for this predictor is 0.84. which now indicates a high degree of skill in the forecast.
Joe Romm and Mark Serreze agreed :
As Arctic sea ice shrinks faster than 2007, NSIDC director Serreze says, “I think it’s quite possible” we could “break another record this year.”
GISS tells us that this is the hottest year ever, and that Arctic temperatures have been running well above normal.
Thinnest ice, hottest temperatures, and expert forecasts. Surely we must have shattered the record this year! It would be a miracle if there is any ice left.
But wait, ice extent is currently 30% higher than 2007. The numbers don’t add up.
“Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts” – Richard Feynman