Hansen Admits That His Climate Models Suck

And blames his failure on evil human pollution. He also promises that sea level rise will start accelerating really, really, really soon.

We conclude that most climate models mix heat too efficiently into the deep ocean and as a result underestimate the negative forcing by human-made aerosols. Aerosol climate forcing today is inferred to be -1.6 \pm 0.3 W/m2, implying substantial aerosol indirect climate forcing via cloud changes. Continued failure to quantify the specific origins of this large forcing is untenable, as knowledge of changing aerosol effects is needed to understand future climate change. A recent decrease in ocean heat uptake was caused by a delayed rebound effect from Mount Pinatubo aerosols and a deep prolonged solar minimum. Observed sea level rise during the Argo float era can readily be accounted for by thermal expansion of the ocean and ice melt, but the ascendency of ice melt leads us to anticipate a near-term acceleration in the rate of sea level rise.

http://arxiv.org/abs/1105.1140

Translation : we have no clue what we are doing, but we need to keep our reputations and funding going.

Apparently big Jim lacks access to the Internet, and can’t see that sea level rise rates have dropped dramatically over the last five years.

He should immediately send out an E-mail to all the people using climate models and to the press, and tell them not to trust the results. That would be the honest thing to do.

h/t to hockeyschtick.blogspot.com and Mark Morano

About stevengoddard

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20 Responses to Hansen Admits That His Climate Models Suck

  1. Jimbo says:

    He doesn’t sound so confident now does he?

  2. Andy Weiss says:

    What Hansen wrote is so incoherent that most people will think that he is brilliant and way above them. In reality, it’s all gibberish.

  3. suyts says:

    Yeh, I saw him hedging that way a couple of months ago.

    Lmao! Our banning the use of some aerosols saved us from the ozone hole, but not enough to curtail the hotting of the world…… except maybe a little bit.

    This is a brilliant slight-of-hand, “We conclude that most climate models mix heat too efficiently into the deep ocean and as a result underestimate the negative forcing by human-made aerosols.” <——— wtf? The models are too efficient and ergo, wrong…….. bwahahahahahahaaha!!

    yah, 'cause deep ocean temps and aerosols go hand in hand. Can we at least get someone over to GISS that won't be so embarrassing?

    • Latitude says:

      Negative forcing…………………LOL

      underestimate the negative forcing????

      • suyts says:

        yeh, that’s a hoot! Steve’s title could have been replaced by “SHOCK NEWS! CLIMATE MODELS OVERESTIMATE WARMING!”

        Well, better late than never I guess, he’s only 23 years behind the most simpleminded of skeptics.

    • glacierman says:

      Yea, too efficient at “mixing heat in the deep ocean”. What? You cannot be serious! And there will be scientists that will defend this drivel.

      How do you mix heat? How can it be proven that the heat really is there, but the models mistakenly mixed it into the “deep ocean” cause we all know that heat sinks, especially in ocean water.

      • glacierman says:

        It must be really warm at the floor of the ocean. All that heat just building up. Wow, when I saw those black smokers, I though that hot water was rising when it came out, but it must have been very cold instead.

      • suyts says:

        lol, yah! Hansen must have discovered a new earth physics law!

      • glacierman says:

        But the good news is – Trenberth can quit searching, Big Jim found his missing heat.

    • Jimbo says:

      Hansen is preparing for the day when it becomes more than abundantly clear that his 1988 prediction / scenario is way off. He’ll simply say it’s man masking the underlying heat and once removed there will be Thermageddon.

  4. glacierman says:

    So there is an admission that there is a problem with the models, but, it has to be that there is a negative feedback somewhere that they didn’t account for because EVERYONE KNOWS that all that heat is out there, somewhere.

    The Greenhouse effect is real because they cannot be wrong on that, or be overestimating the effects, or….. They just come up with a fudge factor to say the effects are being hidden. And of course the fudge factor is pollution caused by man. What a joke.

  5. Latitude says:

    So if we increase the aerosols, we solve global warming….
    …simple enough

    use more hair spray

  6. chris y says:

    “…substantial aerosol indirect climate forcing via cloud changes.”

    Hansen just concluded that changes in clouds must be providing a negative forcing. Of course he attributes it to anthropogenic aerosols, but at least he is starting to acknowledge clouds as a forcing rather than a feedback. Note the lack of referencing he-who-must-not-be-named. Who knows, perhaps Roy Spencer and Richard Lindzen’s papers may actually be mentioned in the upcoming IPCC 5AR…

  7. GregO says:

    For a breath of sanity:

    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/05/weak-warming-of-the-oceans-1955-2010-implies-low-climate-sensitivity/

    My first encounter with Dr. Hansen’s prose was in a pre-Climategate article in Newsweek wherein he called for college kids to hit the streets and riot over coal mining. Back then I paid scant attention to so-called Climate science; but it was clear to me from reading the article he was an unbalanced individual. I actually had to read the article a couple of times as I was sure he was joking on some level. He was serious. I also remember being astounded Newsweek published it.

  8. Sam says:

    That “hidden heat” doesn’t contribute to thermal expansion – and sea level rise?
    As I’ve said before, the sea level rise would show an effect from that “hidden heating”.
    (And it doesn’t.)

    • Latitude says:

      It’s magical mystery coldheat…….
      ..and the lack of it totally invalidates the whole thing

      game changer, game over, I can’t believe we’re still talking about it………….

    • Jimbo says:

      Not only the heat but also all those melting glaciers. Where did it all go? 😦

  9. Luke of the D says:

    I just can’t wait for that near-term acceleration in sea level rise! I’m so excited!!

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