The mass of cold air which is taking over the eastern US was predicted by Joe Bastardi months ago, who also forecast a hot first half of summer.
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Joe Bastardi certainly did say something about this a while ago, and he said the worst of summer was over east of the rockies. He also says that just like Russia in 2010, the warm summer over the US will flip around and a very cold winter across the US.
Then the AGWers, will say, “But wait, it’s only weather!” Lol, they’re are very stereotypical.
They’ll also decide to focus on the West Coast!
Lol, yeah, they’ll find somewhere to cherry pick.
Joe is very good at what he does. Probably the best.
Totally agree, especially considering he’s working with the best at Weatherbell, including Joe D’Aleo and Ryan Maue.
I appreciate the kind comments, but July was hotter than I thought. I could not pin down from before summer when the flip would come. I suspect I did not give enough credence to my own ideas about what this cold PDO can do, as it really overpowered any el nino signal till now. I did a post on weatherbell last night, with a ht to Joe d aleo on how something we have discovered that the temp in the eastern tropical pacific, when colder than the central, controls the US temps, had flipped to cold just now. This is crucial. Even in a la nina winter, if the cold water is “warmer” in the east like last year, you have a warm winter. In any case, this sets up a real chance that the cold winter we have forecasted ( actually this is something I have been pointing at, 12,13 since my days at another company over 18 months ago) could be a severe winter.
But I can not take a bow for July at all. It was hotter than I thought and as a matter in fact in May I thought the change you are seeing now would come earlier. I did think that once the nino kicked in we would have to see it.
Interestingly enough its not like this just flips and stays. We should have another balmy period coming up Aug 21-30,but its like seeing all the snow melt in mid Feb.. once that happens you know spring cant be far behind. This cool shot means it wont be long. Look for the global temp against the means to really crash in the fall as the true global temp is being masked because the southern hemisphere can not contribute when its cold like it is as much BECAUSE OF THE WATER THERE. But once the radiation budget changes, the northern hemisphere fall and winter should continue the jagged downturn we have seen since the pdo flip
http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/climate/cfsr_t2m_recent.png
just want you to know I appreciate the kind words, but from preseason, I thought this would come sooner. I score everything and know right from wrong, which is something that does set us all apart in this larger debate from our opponents
A few weeks is meaningless in the context of NASA 100 year superstition based forecasts.
Yep, got that right, NASA is not to be trusted regarding temps.
Great job Joe, I wonder how this winter will compare with 09-10 and 10-11.
If the northern hemisphere temperature crashes this winter, then that would mean that Arctic Sea Ice could really make a strong run at going back above average (briefly during late winter and spring.), because as Joe said, a significant reason for the arctic melting was because the landmasses were warm, and the loss of ice in the Arctic is outweighed by the increase over the Antarctic. The increase is more impressive because it is surrounded by water, and takes more energy to change the temperature. If the northern hemisphere landmasses were to go cold this winter, then that would mean a strong freeze season is on the way, and this also means we have the potential to go above the satellite mean in sea ice this winter.
Joe,
You are allowing a narrow margin of error – but by holding yourself to this high standard, we can learn something from the error. Keep up the stellar work and keep the standard high. It is much appreciated.
Paul Pastelok (JB’s replacement at AccuWx) is forecasting a very warm Sept.-Nov. for the entire eastern half of the U.S. He hasn’t gone out on a limb yet with even a preliminary winter forecast, but it will be interesting to see if his fall forecast verifies.
If we have another warm winter, it won’t make Joe look very good. He has staked his reputation on a cold upcoming winter. I think he will be right. I hope so anyhow!
Plenty of winters have been forecasted to be cold by JB – and they usually don’t happen when he says they will unless the models catch it way before he does.
JB lost his reputation years ago with his incoherent blog on the accuweather pro site, and he’s certainly not getting it back by posting on a blog ran by a birther who is in no way an expert in weather or climate science.
If JB and SG want to do real science, why don’t they have their data/work published under peer-review already.
Looks like Joe hit the jackpot, and NOAA looks pretty stupid now with their bogus 1936 comparisons a few days ago.
Does NOAA peer-review their weather forecasts?
Did you actually say the models have gotten something right ? Hahahahahaha , as soon as I saw that I knew you were a lying twit . Of course , I already suspected it as you are such a coward as to not use your given name . I’ve yet to see any , I repeat for you of slow understanding , any evidence that a model has ever gotten a forecast correct . The list of predictions the models have failed on however is too long to list on anyone’s blog . So you nameless coward , Joe owns his mistakes and learns from them where people like you like to pretend you have never made any .
Peer review? I think you mean “pal review.” The Climategate emails make it abundantly clear that The Team (Jones, Briffa, Mann,Trenberth, etc.) did everything in its power to prevent the publication of research that ran contrary to their AGW theory, and they intimidated editors who dared to publish such research.
Which editor(s) did they intimidate, specifically?
Steve – you know you are landing a lot of bullseyes on alarmists raw nerves when your Bizarro World brother (gevenstoddard) shows up to call you names 😉
The climate appears to be on a frightening trend towards doing what it always does.
That is really scary! 😉
On June 16 Joe Bastardi wrote:
“…so they say the globe is warming EVEN WHILE THE ACTUAL TEMPS SAY ITS NOT.”
Meanwhile, UAH measures the global lower troposphere for the last four months at +0.31 C above their baseline, some of the warmest months in their records. So far, August is the same. This is a strange kind of not-warming.
Satellites went up at the end of the ice age scare – which was followed by two large volcanic eruptions, so of course temperatures are warmer now. RSS shows no warming for 15 years.
Is less than 1/3 of degree the best you can come up with?
RSS also shows the last 4 months to be in the top 20% of their records.
RSS shows no trend for 15 years, but nice El Nino cherry pick
Bastardi’s comment was that the globe was not warming in the present.
15 years is a pretty long time for a hockey stick to be broken.
Bastardi’s comment was that the globe was not warming in the present.
I have often wondered how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. You seem to be the kind of person who could answer that for me.
Define “angel.”
David Appell
“RSS also shows the last 4 months to be in the top 20% of their records.”
What a useless thing to say. But thanks for being useless. Too bad those last 4 months weren’t the hottest ever for you.
Those months falsify Bastardi’s prediction.
The last 230 months invalidate Hansen’s June, 1988 predictions. In fact, the 1988 La Nina wiped him out by September of that year.
David
Speaking of falsification……..
You ever try to falsify “manmade” global warming? It’s real, real easy to do.
David Appell says:
August 11, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Those months falsify Bastardi’s prediction.
———————————————————————————————–
Nothing of the sort has happened. You just wish it did.
This post is about Bastardi, not Hansen.
Wow, look at all that cold air about to slam the east – just as Joe predicted. And just days after Hansen said the heat was due to global warming.
David Appell
Do you understand why your claim about RSS does not apply in the way you think it does to what Joe Bastardi forecast?
I don’t think you do understand. Which is not unusual since most global warming alarmists don’t understand data and science.
But why don’t you take a guess at why it doesn’t apply.
Cat got your tongue?
The number you talk about is a global average. It is not exclusively for the United States. The temperature is not the same all over the world.
You see David, you just don’t know the first thing of what you are talking about. You are like so many global warming alarmists.
For warming zealots (who strangely often also believe Obama is the messiah), the only periods that can ever matter begin in the late 70s, or the little ice age. This guarantees all comparisons will find today a little warmer. So soothing to their delusion.
These same Deniers can’t come to grips with the fact that Obama himself is the original “Birther”. Their little minds go into spastic convulsions of Cognitive Dissonance.
Joe Bastardi, Nov. 2010: 2011 Arctic Sea Ice to bottom out at “5.5 Mkm2.”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/23/joe-bastardis-2011-arctic-sea-ice-prediction/
Actual 2011 extent minimum: 4.5 Mkm2
Same post: “The ice is coming back….”
Current Arctic sea ice extent: 120 Kkm2 below the previous minimum (2007) for this date.
NSIDC shows a significant increase in multi-year ice since 2008, but please feel free to ignore that and instead focus on meaningless statistics.
Bastardi gave a prediction, which was quite wrong. I didn’t see that he talked about first-year ice and multi-year ice — did I miss that?
Oh David, come one, there’s lots you miss.
April 2012:
“After the near-record melt last summer, second-year ice declined again, but some of the ice that had survived the previous few summers made it through another year, increasing the proportion of third- and fourth-year ice. However the oldest, thickest ice, more than four years old, continued to decline. Ice older than four years used to make up about a quarter of the winter sea ice cover, but now constitutes only 2%.”
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/04/arctic-sea-ice-news-april-4th.html
March 2012
“A new NASA study has found that the oldest, thickest sea ice in the Arctic region has been disappearing at a faster rate than younger, thinner sea ice.”
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/climatechange/significant-loss-of-thicker-mu/62581
“Large Decadal Decline of the Arctic Multiyear Ice Cover,” Josefino C. Comiso (2012) J. Climate, 25, 1176–1193.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00113.1
You are typical. You study compares to 1980. That year is COMPLETELY INAPPLICABLE to what is being talked about.
You are a scientific moron.
As I said, David Appell, there’s lots you miss.
Where is your ‘forecast’ to 2030 ‘predicted’ ‘five years’ ago Joe? Doesn’t it supercede your ‘forecast’ of ‘months ago’? It seems you are ‘shooting in the dark’ and creating ‘marriages of convenience'( ‘If it’s not warm it will be cold’) Give us a break! You have no viable forecast method, (you never have had one) and therefor, no forecast. The more you rely on ENSO/PDO ‘flips etc, the less chance you have of ever forecasting anything worthwhile regarding Climate/Weather. (ie ‘Precipitation’) Surface temperature depends mostly on ‘Precipitation.’ Farmers depend on Precipitation. Life on Earth depends on Precipitation!
You will recall my forecast of a Two Solar/Earth Year ‘Wet’/Normal period for the US.starting early August, followed by a severe Five year ‘Dry’ Cycle,(as predicted by Alex S. Gaddes in his work ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’1990.)
Oh, sorry, you haven’t read the work yet???!! Well, at the risk of seeming repetitious, you can obtain an updated version of ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ (with ‘Dry Cycle forecasts to 2055) from dongaddes93@gmail.com
Perhaps you (and your ‘elves’) could read it in your upcoming ‘balmy period’ August 21/30.
Hey do you make long range predictions? If so what does the winter 2012,2013 hold for the united states? region by region if you don’t mind.
Sorry Don, but ENSO has a very large effect on the climate, something your narrow-mided ideology can’t handle.
Hey Joe , when you first came out with your warning of a cooler time coming it helped me to underatand the trend I was seeing in the NW Oregon apple production . The later ripening apples just were not having enough time in the fall to ripen . The last year for quality late apples in our area was 2008 and even then I thought I detected a lesser amount of strong flavor . But since then it has been steadily worse with the late apples barely fit for a juice blend . I turned some of last years late apples into wine and had to add sugar. So far you have been correct as I keep a rough journal of fruit production so as to know what varieties are producing . The early and midseason apples are as excellent as always and we have planted a substantial amount . But I really miss the Newton Pippens with their unique piney aroma and flavor and Braeburn was an excellent apple for us until the cool started but now is inferior . So while I see the cooling I don’t neccessarily like it . Yes we have much firewood with more to come so don’t mind that part of it but I don’t like to ski or iceskate haha . On the plus side Ashmead Kernal and Cox Orange Pippen ripen early enough for excellence as do johnagold and honeycrisp and those in that period so we have an abundance of apples.
I see the warmists are saying the usual , this is predicted in 30 years and fifty years and after adjustments and homogenization the temperature says this , but a farmer looks at his crops and they don’t lie. I’ve never met a warmist that could keep from lying when cornered with facts . So you guys keep talking about globull warming and those of us with our eyes open will watch and see and remember . What I’ve seen from the warmists has been less than impressive . Say how’s that sea level rise ? Didn’t that evil al gore buy up some ocean front property ? And what about all those rich hollywood activists , er actresses , and actors running around telling us about how the warmist activist scientists are right ; their carbon footprint is huge and I don’t see them cutting back . You warmists are the do as I say not as I do crowd so you can paint that on your forehead , not that you need to because I see hypocrite everytime I see one of you. The list goes on and on and I think you guys are crooks , liars , idiots etc. etc. , that is multiple choice so pick the one that fits and you are not limited to one .
Global warming believers do that all the time. They show up, shout a bunch of prefabricated rebuttals, then leave. Hit-n-run it used to be called. Now it’s just called desperate I think.
That’s because all the extra CO2 in the atmosphere is not performing to the preordained rules.
please stop wrecking the AGW story hahahahaha
In a few more years, we’ll be laughing at all the AGW alarmists as the planet turns cold. We should be worried about what’s happening with the sun, which has decided to take an extended nap reminiscent of the Dalton Mininum in the late 1700s and early 1800s. Sun spot numbers and 10.7 flux levels are way down, and solar cycle 25 is shaping up to be even a weaker cycle.
We should be doing every thing possible (opening new oil fields, building more coal-fired plants, developing shale oil) to ensure that people don’t freeze to death when the cold temperatures arrive.
A warmer planet would be good for humanity as would an increase in CO2 levels. What isn’t going to be good is a period of long-term cold. I looks like we may be headed for big a freeze, compliments of weak solar activity, a negative PDO and increased northern hemisphere volcanism.
The impact of Increased CO2 levels on the earth’s climate is the equivalent of a fart in a hurricane. It’s so small, it’s not even measurable.
The Sun has decided to “take a nap?” The daily total solar irradiance is at 1361.9 W/m2, slightly above its average in recent decades:
http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/tsi_data/daily/sorce_tsi_L3_c24h_latest.txt
How odd that solar max would be above average.
Its current value (1361.9 W/m2) is slightly above its average cycle maximum of recent decades (1361.8 W/m2). In other words, there’s no “nap” at all – nor would a Maunder-like minimum, if it came about, lead to much cooling.
You mean Hansen was lying when he said that temperatures were hot despite low solar activity and La Nina?
You don’t know what you are doing David. You are just a political bomb thrower.
You cherry pick data. Typical global warming tactic.
Where were you when no spots were visible for long periods of time? You pick one moment, a moment unfairly compared to an average, and think it’s proof of something.
You global warming alarmists are monsters. You don’t care about just and right. You cherry pick, take things out of their proper context, exaggerate, bomb throw, make inflammatory statements, and then run when someone points out your errors.
There was solar activity higher than this in recent decades. Average does not mean peak. You unfairly compare a peak to an average. YOU ARE DISINGENUOUS!!!
Compare peaks to peaks and averages to averages. That’s how it’s done. That is, it’s done that way by those who want to be unbiased and don’t have an activists ax to grind.
“Its current value (1361.9 W/m2) is slightly above its average cycle maximum of recent decades (1361.8 W/m2). In other words, there’s no “nap” at all – nor would a Maunder-like minimum, if it came about, lead to much cooling.”
Where David looses me is when he makes claims authoritatively over topics that are barely understood scientifically. He should really stick to what he understands….
Here is the “nap” that David claims isn’t there, from NASA:
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict.gif
Also note the data from NOAA:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/Ap.gif
Nice graphs Will!
The quantity relevant to climate is actual irradiance, not sunspot number or geomagnetic index.
Even during the Maunder Minimum, solar irradiance S was about 1360 W/m2:
http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/tsi_data/TSI_TIM_Reconstruction.txt
To first order, the change in Earth’s surface temperature T is
dT/T = (1/4)(dS/S)
so a decrease from today’s S=1361.9 W/m2 gives dT ~ 0.1 K.
A weaker Sun just wouldn’t make much difference:
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/archive/2010/weakening-sun-would-hardly-slow-global-warming
Svensmark would disagree. The Sun has more than one property, believe it or not.
Toshinmack, what alarmist did you go to to give you that copy and past info? 😆
Except the Svensmark Hypothesis is still an unproven hypothesis. Here is what the CERN CLOUD scientists wrote in their August 2011 press briefing:
“This result leaves open the possibility that cosmic rays could also influence climate. However, it is premature to conclude that cosmic rays have a significant influence on climate until the additional nucleating vapours have been identified, their ion enhancement measured, and the ultimate effects on clouds have been confirmed.”
There is a great deal more to be proven in the inference chain for the Svensmark hypothesis to be accepted (and none of it would invalidate or cancel an enhanced greenhouse effect). Plus, there’s been no overall trend in cosmic rays in the last 60 years.
Gravity is also an unproven hypothesis
> Gravity is also an unproven hypothesis.
Lame. (Also false.)
Scientists refused to accept continental drift for 70 years because they couldn’t explain it. Arrogance knows no bounds.
Here is what you sound like Toshinmack 😆 Lame. LMAO!
>> Scientists refused to accept continental drift for 70 years because they couldn’t explain it. <<
Doubly lame. There are far, far more hypothesis in the history of science that didn't pan out than did. See: "grasping at straws."
Like CO2 driven global warming, for example.
David Appell
You have shown yourself to be an activist in this comment thread with no concern for mathematical accuracy. Now you come out with this formula about the sun and I’m supposed to believe you even understand it yourself—that you know what you are talking about? Who would be stupider in this scenario, you or me? It would be you, wouldn’t it.
Toshinmack brings on the Streisand effect! Doubly lame? ROTFLMAO! Can’t wait for the Triply Trfecta Lameeeely from ya!
Hey kirk , I see D Appell is attempting to engage you in conversation . Be aware he will argue until you point out the falicy in his presentation then he will jump to another subject , if he even thinks you might counter his arguement he will change subjects and try to get you going on something else . You can see in his argueing here that he has hit on Joe Bastardi , the sun and from the sun has morphed to tell us of irradiance in the Maunder Minimum. You will see him slam scientists who have years of work in subjects he can barely talk about . He likes to slam Joe Bastardis’ work particularly it seems , probably because Joe dares the globull warming crowd to make short and mid term predictions and they are incapable due to their lack of understanding of weather as anyone who looks at the conclusions of their models can tell . Joe seems to be hitting those predictions he spoke of a couple of years ago , I listened to him then and believed him and it looks as though the decision to move away from expecting late fall crops to thrive was a good one. We will see what this winter brings , but I am stocking up on the firewood as I think it might be a cold one. Oh , and as to Joe not hitting every prediction , he gets enough of them right to keep me listening and no one from the agw crowd has gotten even one right yet. It’s models all the way down with them .
Reblogged this on Climate Ponderings.
The Sun is very much awake! It doesn’t just radiate Heat.
Comparatively speaking it is not as active as it has been.
Svensmark and CERN are on the right track.
Alex S. Gaddes identified it as the ‘W’ or Weather Factor, emanating from the 27 day rotation rate zone of the Sun (the Sunspot Latitude.) “Whatever it is behind the emanation, is migrating in a retrograde direction relative to the Sun’s Rotation.” (‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ p 20)
With the identification of a ‘Dry’ Cycle ‘hierarchy’, and the prediction of the initiation and duration of these ‘Dry’ Cycles, Alex S. Gaddes has provided an exact physical manifestation on Earth for this ‘W’ Factor.
ENSO has nothing to do with it.
An updated version of ‘Tomorrow’s Weather'(with ‘Dry’ Cycle forecasts to 2055) is available as a free pdf from dongaddes93@gmail.com
Don, you still haven’t proven HOW “ENSO has nothing to do with it.”
I wonder if Don talks a lot but doesn’t know what he is saying.
I wonder how those who haven’t read ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ can have any valid opinion as to its efficacy?