Joe Bastardi Forecast This Two Months Ago

The mass of cold air which is taking over the eastern US was predicted by Joe Bastardi months ago, who also forecast a hot first half of summer.

10-Day Temperature Outlook for the Conterminous U.S.

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87 Responses to Joe Bastardi Forecast This Two Months Ago

  1. Eric Webb says:

    Joe Bastardi certainly did say something about this a while ago, and he said the worst of summer was over east of the rockies. He also says that just like Russia in 2010, the warm summer over the US will flip around and a very cold winter across the US.

  2. Stephen Richards says:

    Joe is very good at what he does. Probably the best.

    • Eric Webb says:

      Totally agree, especially considering he’s working with the best at Weatherbell, including Joe D’Aleo and Ryan Maue.

  3. Joseph Bastardi says:

    I appreciate the kind comments, but July was hotter than I thought. I could not pin down from before summer when the flip would come. I suspect I did not give enough credence to my own ideas about what this cold PDO can do, as it really overpowered any el nino signal till now. I did a post on weatherbell last night, with a ht to Joe d aleo on how something we have discovered that the temp in the eastern tropical pacific, when colder than the central, controls the US temps, had flipped to cold just now. This is crucial. Even in a la nina winter, if the cold water is “warmer” in the east like last year, you have a warm winter. In any case, this sets up a real chance that the cold winter we have forecasted ( actually this is something I have been pointing at, 12,13 since my days at another company over 18 months ago) could be a severe winter.

    But I can not take a bow for July at all. It was hotter than I thought and as a matter in fact in May I thought the change you are seeing now would come earlier. I did think that once the nino kicked in we would have to see it.

    Interestingly enough its not like this just flips and stays. We should have another balmy period coming up Aug 21-30,but its like seeing all the snow melt in mid Feb.. once that happens you know spring cant be far behind. This cool shot means it wont be long. Look for the global temp against the means to really crash in the fall as the true global temp is being masked because the southern hemisphere can not contribute when its cold like it is as much BECAUSE OF THE WATER THERE. But once the radiation budget changes, the northern hemisphere fall and winter should continue the jagged downturn we have seen since the pdo flip

    just want you to know I appreciate the kind words, but from preseason, I thought this would come sooner. I score everything and know right from wrong, which is something that does set us all apart in this larger debate from our opponents

    • A few weeks is meaningless in the context of NASA 100 year superstition based forecasts.

    • Eric Webb says:

      Great job Joe, I wonder how this winter will compare with 09-10 and 10-11.

      • Eric Webb says:

        If the northern hemisphere temperature crashes this winter, then that would mean that Arctic Sea Ice could really make a strong run at going back above average (briefly during late winter and spring.), because as Joe said, a significant reason for the arctic melting was because the landmasses were warm, and the loss of ice in the Arctic is outweighed by the increase over the Antarctic. The increase is more impressive because it is surrounded by water, and takes more energy to change the temperature. If the northern hemisphere landmasses were to go cold this winter, then that would mean a strong freeze season is on the way, and this also means we have the potential to go above the satellite mean in sea ice this winter.

    • gregole says:


      You are allowing a narrow margin of error – but by holding yourself to this high standard, we can learn something from the error. Keep up the stellar work and keep the standard high. It is much appreciated.

    • Alan Grossberg says:

      Paul Pastelok (JB’s replacement at AccuWx) is forecasting a very warm Sept.-Nov. for the entire eastern half of the U.S. He hasn’t gone out on a limb yet with even a preliminary winter forecast, but it will be interesting to see if his fall forecast verifies.

  4. Andy DC says:

    If we have another warm winter, it won’t make Joe look very good. He has staked his reputation on a cold upcoming winter. I think he will be right. I hope so anyhow!

    • GevenStoddard says:

      Plenty of winters have been forecasted to be cold by JB – and they usually don’t happen when he says they will unless the models catch it way before he does.

      JB lost his reputation years ago with his incoherent blog on the accuweather pro site, and he’s certainly not getting it back by posting on a blog ran by a birther who is in no way an expert in weather or climate science.

      If JB and SG want to do real science, why don’t they have their data/work published under peer-review already.

      • Looks like Joe hit the jackpot, and NOAA looks pretty stupid now with their bogus 1936 comparisons a few days ago.

        Does NOAA peer-review their weather forecasts?

      • johnmcguire says:

        Did you actually say the models have gotten something right ? Hahahahahaha , as soon as I saw that I knew you were a lying twit . Of course , I already suspected it as you are such a coward as to not use your given name . I’ve yet to see any , I repeat for you of slow understanding , any evidence that a model has ever gotten a forecast correct . The list of predictions the models have failed on however is too long to list on anyone’s blog . So you nameless coward , Joe owns his mistakes and learns from them where people like you like to pretend you have never made any .

      • kirkmyers says:

        Peer review? I think you mean “pal review.” The Climategate emails make it abundantly clear that The Team (Jones, Briffa, Mann,Trenberth, etc.) did everything in its power to prevent the publication of research that ran contrary to their AGW theory, and they intimidated editors who dared to publish such research.

      • David Appell says:

        Which editor(s) did they intimidate, specifically?

  5. Rick Pay says:

    Steve – you know you are landing a lot of bullseyes on alarmists raw nerves when your Bizarro World brother (gevenstoddard) shows up to call you names 😉

  6. David Appell says:

    On June 16 Joe Bastardi wrote:
    “…so they say the globe is warming EVEN WHILE THE ACTUAL TEMPS SAY ITS NOT.”

    Meanwhile, UAH measures the global lower troposphere for the last four months at +0.31 C above their baseline, some of the warmest months in their records. So far, August is the same. This is a strange kind of not-warming.

  7. David Appell says:

    Joe Bastardi, Nov. 2010: 2011 Arctic Sea Ice to bottom out at “5.5 Mkm2.”
    Actual 2011 extent minimum: 4.5 Mkm2

    Same post: “The ice is coming back….”
    Current Arctic sea ice extent: 120 Kkm2 below the previous minimum (2007) for this date.

  8. Don Gaddes says:

    Where is your ‘forecast’ to 2030 ‘predicted’ ‘five years’ ago Joe? Doesn’t it supercede your ‘forecast’ of ‘months ago’? It seems you are ‘shooting in the dark’ and creating ‘marriages of convenience'( ‘If it’s not warm it will be cold’) Give us a break! You have no viable forecast method, (you never have had one) and therefor, no forecast. The more you rely on ENSO/PDO ‘flips etc, the less chance you have of ever forecasting anything worthwhile regarding Climate/Weather. (ie ‘Precipitation’) Surface temperature depends mostly on ‘Precipitation.’ Farmers depend on Precipitation. Life on Earth depends on Precipitation!
    You will recall my forecast of a Two Solar/Earth Year ‘Wet’/Normal period for the US.starting early August, followed by a severe Five year ‘Dry’ Cycle,(as predicted by Alex S. Gaddes in his work ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’1990.)
    Oh, sorry, you haven’t read the work yet???!! Well, at the risk of seeming repetitious, you can obtain an updated version of ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ (with ‘Dry Cycle forecasts to 2055) from
    Perhaps you (and your ‘elves’) could read it in your upcoming ‘balmy period’ August 21/30.

    • Frank Garrett says:

      Hey do you make long range predictions? If so what does the winter 2012,2013 hold for the united states? region by region if you don’t mind.

    • Eric Webb says:

      Sorry Don, but ENSO has a very large effect on the climate, something your narrow-mided ideology can’t handle.

  9. johnmcguire says:

    Hey Joe , when you first came out with your warning of a cooler time coming it helped me to underatand the trend I was seeing in the NW Oregon apple production . The later ripening apples just were not having enough time in the fall to ripen . The last year for quality late apples in our area was 2008 and even then I thought I detected a lesser amount of strong flavor . But since then it has been steadily worse with the late apples barely fit for a juice blend . I turned some of last years late apples into wine and had to add sugar. So far you have been correct as I keep a rough journal of fruit production so as to know what varieties are producing . The early and midseason apples are as excellent as always and we have planted a substantial amount . But I really miss the Newton Pippens with their unique piney aroma and flavor and Braeburn was an excellent apple for us until the cool started but now is inferior . So while I see the cooling I don’t neccessarily like it . Yes we have much firewood with more to come so don’t mind that part of it but I don’t like to ski or iceskate haha . On the plus side Ashmead Kernal and Cox Orange Pippen ripen early enough for excellence as do johnagold and honeycrisp and those in that period so we have an abundance of apples.

  10. johnmcguire says:

    I see the warmists are saying the usual , this is predicted in 30 years and fifty years and after adjustments and homogenization the temperature says this , but a farmer looks at his crops and they don’t lie. I’ve never met a warmist that could keep from lying when cornered with facts . So you guys keep talking about globull warming and those of us with our eyes open will watch and see and remember . What I’ve seen from the warmists has been less than impressive . Say how’s that sea level rise ? Didn’t that evil al gore buy up some ocean front property ? And what about all those rich hollywood activists , er actresses , and actors running around telling us about how the warmist activist scientists are right ; their carbon footprint is huge and I don’t see them cutting back . You warmists are the do as I say not as I do crowd so you can paint that on your forehead , not that you need to because I see hypocrite everytime I see one of you. The list goes on and on and I think you guys are crooks , liars , idiots etc. etc. , that is multiple choice so pick the one that fits and you are not limited to one .

  11. Marian says:

    please stop wrecking the AGW story hahahahaha

  12. kirkmyers says:

    In a few more years, we’ll be laughing at all the AGW alarmists as the planet turns cold. We should be worried about what’s happening with the sun, which has decided to take an extended nap reminiscent of the Dalton Mininum in the late 1700s and early 1800s. Sun spot numbers and 10.7 flux levels are way down, and solar cycle 25 is shaping up to be even a weaker cycle.

    We should be doing every thing possible (opening new oil fields, building more coal-fired plants, developing shale oil) to ensure that people don’t freeze to death when the cold temperatures arrive.

    A warmer planet would be good for humanity as would an increase in CO2 levels. What isn’t going to be good is a period of long-term cold. I looks like we may be headed for big a freeze, compliments of weak solar activity, a negative PDO and increased northern hemisphere volcanism.

    The impact of Increased CO2 levels on the earth’s climate is the equivalent of a fart in a hurricane. It’s so small, it’s not even measurable.

    • David Appell says:

      The Sun has decided to “take a nap?” The daily total solar irradiance is at 1361.9 W/m2, slightly above its average in recent decades:

    • johnmcguire says:

      Hey kirk , I see D Appell is attempting to engage you in conversation . Be aware he will argue until you point out the falicy in his presentation then he will jump to another subject , if he even thinks you might counter his arguement he will change subjects and try to get you going on something else . You can see in his argueing here that he has hit on Joe Bastardi , the sun and from the sun has morphed to tell us of irradiance in the Maunder Minimum. You will see him slam scientists who have years of work in subjects he can barely talk about . He likes to slam Joe Bastardis’ work particularly it seems , probably because Joe dares the globull warming crowd to make short and mid term predictions and they are incapable due to their lack of understanding of weather as anyone who looks at the conclusions of their models can tell . Joe seems to be hitting those predictions he spoke of a couple of years ago , I listened to him then and believed him and it looks as though the decision to move away from expecting late fall crops to thrive was a good one. We will see what this winter brings , but I am stocking up on the firewood as I think it might be a cold one. Oh , and as to Joe not hitting every prediction , he gets enough of them right to keep me listening and no one from the agw crowd has gotten even one right yet. It’s models all the way down with them .

  13. Don Gaddes says:

    The Sun is very much awake! It doesn’t just radiate Heat.

  14. Don Gaddes says:

    Svensmark and CERN are on the right track.
    Alex S. Gaddes identified it as the ‘W’ or Weather Factor, emanating from the 27 day rotation rate zone of the Sun (the Sunspot Latitude.) “Whatever it is behind the emanation, is migrating in a retrograde direction relative to the Sun’s Rotation.” (‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ p 20)
    With the identification of a ‘Dry’ Cycle ‘hierarchy’, and the prediction of the initiation and duration of these ‘Dry’ Cycles, Alex S. Gaddes has provided an exact physical manifestation on Earth for this ‘W’ Factor.
    ENSO has nothing to do with it.
    An updated version of ‘Tomorrow’s Weather'(with ‘Dry’ Cycle forecasts to 2055) is available as a free pdf from

  15. Don Gaddes says:

    I wonder how those who haven’t read ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ can have any valid opinion as to its efficacy?

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