Occupy Climate Science

It is time to introduce some actual science into the world of climate science.

I have had the great privilege of spending time with CSU’s Bill Gray recently, and he has been explaining to me what causes the climate fluctuations we witness.

ScreenHunter_242 Mar. 04 08.26

Of course it has nothing to do with CO2, and it is all natural.

Dr. Gray’s theory in a nutshell, is that surface temperatures are controlled by the amount of cold water upwelling from the deep oceans, and that is driven by cyclical changes in ocean  surface salinity – which create density gradients that control vertical and horizontal circulation.

It makes very good sense, and there will be a lot of supporting material posted here soon to explain it in detail.

About stevengoddard

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37 Responses to Occupy Climate Science

  1. Sundance says:

    I look forward to that Steve. TIA.

  2. Jeff says:

    It’s going to be a shame when James Hansen’s latest prediction for an el nino goes bust and we actually get a la nina instead. I don’t know why anyone listens to Hansen on ocean cycles at all. Nothing he has ever said about el ninos and la ninas have ever come true. He thought la ninas were rare events in 1989. He predicted another “super el nino” to strike since 1999 and it hasn’t. Made predictions for el ninos in 2006, 2013 and, now, 2014, and all were wrong.

  3. omanuel says:

    Thanks for the posting. I look forward to learning more about the mechanism that causes “cold water upwelling from the deep oceans, . . .”

  4. Andy Oz says:

    I’m looking forward to Dr Gray’s info as well.

    Something I found on El Nino:
    http://www.ms-starship.com/sciencenew/galapagos_geology.htm
    “For most of the year the Galapagos is cooled by the upwelling of the cold Peruvian oceanic and the Peruvian coastal currents (known collectively as the Humboldt current), which sweep northwards from the Antarctic, pushed by the Southeast trade winds. The Humboldt current has a mean temperature of 15 degrees centigrade. Upon reaching the Galapagos platform, the cold nutrient rich waters surface from a depth of 100m. The cold waters cool the air above them, producing a temperature inversion.”

    There is no mention of CO2 causing oceanic currents or trade winds or anything that will effect ENSO. And that’s because it does next to nothing. Governments cannot tax ocean currents, or atmospheric cooling or heating, or trade winds. But they CAN tax carbon dioxide emissions via the use of fossil fuels. They just needed to panic the sheeple enough to pass the tax, or in the case of USA, use the EPA to shut down the coal industry.

  5. Anthony Bremner says:

    Could it be that cold water upwelling was going on from the 1940’s to the 1970’s which buried the heat with downwelling if there is such a thing? 30 yrs of strong Solar cycles were stored in the deeper water only to be released during the warming period when the PDO cycle changed to warm cycle around 1977? This was on top of another 30 yrs of strong Solar cycles of course only to be blamed on Co2 for taxation schemes. Co2 being only a small influence. Global cooling when the AMO Atlantic cool cycle kicks in. Asian Sulfur dioxide pollution and Volcanic activity being the wild cards that could tip it into cooling sooner?

    • Brian H says:

      That “Warm Period” includes the step change at the Great Dying of The Thermometers, of about 1.5°F.

    • Ernest Bush says:

      Read Bob Tisdale’s book “Who Turned On The Heat.” The heat stored between El Ninos is enough to account for most of the modern warming. It has nothing to do with heat stored in the depths of the ocean. Also, El Ninos come in various sizes. The extra large variety can raise the temperature of the entire world.

  6. Dave N says:

    I’m still waiting on Trenberth’s explanation for how warm water in massive quantities sinks below cold (at all, let alone undetected) and stays there for years, so this could be interesting.

  7. Send Al to the Pole says:

    Might this upwelling theory of Dr Gray’s have a celestial mechanics LOD element, or is he open to that?
    …..and I have a completely unsupported (wild idea) that the orientation of the Electric current sheet could possibly interact with the magnetosphere and thereby cause or enable El Nino to occur.

  8. chasingice says:

    The Sun is our engine, the ocean is our radiator, and the polar ice is our coolant. I’m of the opinion that the thermostat has just opened. Lets hope it doesn’t get stuck as I like it a bit warmer than most.

  9. Snow White says:

    Coincidentally surface temperatures have been remarkably warm “north of the 80th northern parallel” this winter. Here are some actual measurements Steve was fond of displaying last summer – http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

    • David A says:

      The post says nothing detailed about any specific area, rendering your comment irrelevant. And did this above average warmth in one quadrant stop the largest year over year increase in the artic sea ice coverage on modern record?

    • Your comment highlights the mindless stupidity of alarmists. -25C is not warm, and elevated Arctic temperatures are the obvious consequence of Arctic air spreading all the way down to Florida.

      • Snow White says:

        So we’re agreed that temperatures have been elevated in the Arctic even as they’ve been a trifle chilly down in Florida? What’s “mindlessly stupid” about that?

        • Ernest Bush says:

          It’s the use of the words “remarkably warm” to describe -25C temperatures. That is, after all, desperately cold still.

        • Morgan says:

          And the use of the words “a trifle chilly in Florida” adds to the mindless stupidity

  10. Andy Oz says:

    I love alarmists!
    “Alaska is warm! We’re doomed!
    The Great Lakes are frozen over. Warming did that!”
    I need to smoke some dope to understand this climate seance.

  11. gator69 says:

    Apparently Dr Gray is unaware of the sneaky heat hiding in the deep oceans, patiently waiting to fry us all.

  12. Gail Combs says:

    Goes along with my thoughts on Drake Passage and the Humboldt Current.

    fhhaynie (a retired EPA scientist) said: @ WUWT January 18, 2014 at 8:24 am
    wattsupwiththat(DOT)com/2014/01/18/comments-on-the-nature-article-climate-change-the-case-of-the-missing-heat/#comment-1540259

    If I were asked to pick a single point on earth that most likely has the greatest effect on global weather and climate, it would be 0 and 90W (Galapagos). This is where El-nino winds, the deep sea Cromwell current, the Panama current, and the Humboldt current meet. These flows are not constant and each has different cycles and those cycles are not constant. Cycles on cycles create extremes in weather and climate. These extremes have an effect globally. I suspect these cycles are also controlling our observed atmospheric concentration of CO2. CO2 is very likely a lagging indicator and not a cause of climate change.

    If you look at this Sea Surface Temperature map it has a good image of the tongue of cold water from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current just before Drake Passage, headed up the coast of South America to Galapagos where it is called the Humboldt Current.

    The Humbolt current “is a cold, low-salinity ocean current that flows north along the west coast of South America from the southern tip of Chile to northern Peru.” (WIKI)

    So the next question is what drives the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. It is the wind which has been increasing in the Antarctic over the past decade or so. (I have the link somewhere)

    Effect of Drake Passage on the global thermohaline circulation
    Abstract-
    The Ekman divergence around Antarctica raises a large amount of deep water to the ocean’s surface. The regional Ekman transport moves the upwelled deep water northward out of the circumpolar zone. The divergence and northward surface drift combine, in effect, to remove deep water from the interior of the ocean. This wind-driven removal process is facilitated by a unique dynamic constraint operating in the latitude band containing Drake Passage. Through a simple model sensitivity experiment WC show that the upwelling and removal of deep water in the circumpolar belt may be quantitatively related to the formation of new deep water in the northern North Atlantic. These results show that stronger winds in the south can induct more deep water formation in the north and more deep outflow through the South Atlantic. The fact that winds in the southern hemisphere might influence the formation of deep water in the North Atlantic brings into question long-standing notions about the forces that drive the ocean’ thermohaline circulation….

    (A branch of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current also heads up the coast of Africa.)

    So what drives the winds?

    In a winter cyclone the primary driver of the dynamics is the baroclinic instability in the winter circulation, with the storm extracting vorticity from the latitudinal shear in the circulation, and converting it to the vorticity of the cyclone. The effective diabatic heating associated with precipitation and reduced cooling of entrained air amounts to an increase in potential vorticity and uplift in the air mass, and is likely to concentrate the vorticity near the cyclone center. In addition, by enhancing the feedback processes inherent in the baroclinic instability, it can increase the overall vorticity of the cyclone. It has been demonstrated analytically by van Delden [1989] and from numerical storm simulations by Zimmerman et al. [1989] and Mallet et al. (1999) that a positive feedback exists between the storm dynamical configuration and the diabatic processes. Thus precipitation changes explain the many reported examples of correlations of the vorticity area index (VAI) with GCR flux change and Jz reviewed by Tinsley [2000].”

    Click to access Atmos_060302.pdf

    There is also lunar effects on the oceans from daily up to a ~1500 year north-south tidal cycle.

    Be interesting to see if Dr. Gray says anything similar.

  13. Hugh K says:

    Bill Gray? Wasn’t he an Emritus Professor of something called Atmosheric Science before the ‘Team’ killed all climate science? I think I remember reading about Professor Gray in some old hurricane historical data that was overlooked by the scrubbing team at NOAA. Looking forward with keen interest to what Dr. Gray has to offer.

  14. Andy DC says:

    That chart is startlng evidence of catastrophic warming! We are doomed!! We are all going to die! (sarc)

  15. Snow White says:

    D. Self – Unfortunately the North Pole is still a trifle chilly at this time of year. However if you packed a wetsuit you could have a pleasant swim off Svalbard at the moment. The average temperature there was 14.5 °C above average in February:

    http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

  16. Snow White says:

    Steve – So Santa and his little helpers will have moved to Green Bay by next Xmas?
    Gail – Apart from North, South, East and West of Svalbard presumably?

  17. Snow White says:

    Ernest/Morgan – According to Albert Einstein (a well known physicist) – “It’s all relative!”

  18. Anthony Bremner says:

    I think the issue of where the ocean stores heat may be a distraction from the fact that it must store Solar heat during the cold PDO cycle to able to release heat during the warm PDO cycle. How deep the heat it is in the Ocean may be much too complex with so many factors affecting it.
    . It must be storing less heat now since the Solar cycle has been weak which affects the future release of stored Solar energy down the road? As opposed to the 30 yrs of strong Solar cycles stored in the Ocean before the last warm PDO cycle energy release.
    Alarmists saying that the Ocean is absorbing the heat now are making the skeptics case that the warming was just the opposite cycle in effect at the time. It also proves that the Pacific Ocean is more of a factor than Co2.

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