Progress With Climate Models

James Hansen’s first climate model was the most accurate. It showed CO2 as not a problem.


U.S. Scientist Sees New Ice Age Coming

Over time Hansen’s models got stupider and stupider, and eventually lead to the Hayhoe Hockey Stick

Screen shot 2012-01-02 at 10.42.58 AM (1)

However, I did find an excellent global warming model.



About stevengoddard

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8 Responses to Progress With Climate Models

  1. gator69 says:

    Hansen’s models do have their issues…

    • Menicholas says:

      The end of that video provides a first hand demonstration of the fastest motion ever observed by a land dwelling vertebrate, that of a woman covering up upon finding that she is half dressed in front of a crowd of people.
      Although, strangely enough, one of the slowest motions ever observed is that of a woman walking down a crowded beach while wearing a dental floss bikini.

  2. Menicholas says:

    That model’s globes are almost certainly warming at least a small section of that car’s fender.

  3. Andy DC says:

    Yes, that model has no trouble creating excess heat, which isn’t even hiding in the deep oceans.

  4. iurockhead says:

    Do you have a link to the hayhoe article with her hockey stick? I have a friend in town (Midland, TX) that has had her come and speak at a local society, and he thinks she is not unreasonable. Her hockey stick will disabuse him of that notion.

  5. catweazle666 says:

    That climate model would be the one used by Stephen Schneider for this paper, presumably.

    We report here on the first results of a calculation in which separate estimates were made of the effects on global temperature of large increases in the amount of CO2 and dust in the atmosphere. It is found that even an increase by a factor of 8 in the amount of CO2, which is highly unlikely in the next several thousand years, will produce an increase in the surface temperature of less than 2 deg. K.

    Abstract. Effects on the global temperature of large increases in carbon dioxide and aerosol densities in the atmosphere of Earth have been computed. It is found that, although the addition of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does increase the surface temperature, the rate of temperature increase diminishes with increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. For aerosols, however, the net effect of increase in density is to reduce the surface temperature of Earth. Becuase of the exponential dependence of the backscattering, the rate of temperature decrease is augmented with increasing aerosol content. An increase by only a factor of 4 in global aerosol background concentration may be sufficient to reduce the surface temperature by as much as 3.5 deg.K. If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease over the whole globe is believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age.

    Schneider S. & Rasool S., “Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols – Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate”, Science, vol.173, 9 July 1971, p.138-141

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