Certainly Uncertain

On October 1, NOAA’s cone of certainty for Joaquin extended from North Carolina to long Island. Six days later they are certain Joaquin is headed for somewhere around Ireland.

Their certainty is quite literally all over the map.

ScreenHunter_10696 Oct. 06 07.03

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28 Responses to Certainly Uncertain

  1. What confidence did they put on “certain”? Was it 97% perhaps?

  2. omanuel says:

    Support for lock-step consensus “science” (lies) is financially rewarding: Today Takaaki Kajita of Japan and Arthur B. McDonald of Canada were awarded the Nobel prize in Physics for saving the Standard Solar Model by reporting that most solar neutrinos oscillate away before reaching our detectors:


    Their findings are contradicted by the experimental measurements hidden from the public for decades:

    “Solar energy” (17 March 2015): https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Solar_Energy.pdf

    • darrylb says:

      Thank you oliver, I read the Nobel Prize info and then skimmed your article.
      I will now take some time and digest it.
      At this point I cannot make a comment on it other than I think when I get into it,
      it might prove interesting.

      I am not going to comment on this present award, but I am sure we would agree that in the past the award was given very foolishly.
      I wonder if they could ever rescind an award?!

      • Jason Calley says:

        I do not think that the prize can be rescinded. Additionally, it cannot be given to anyone who is deceased.

        • darrylb says:

          Jason, I knew they could not take it back. It was more or less a comment.
          I had understood , but was not sure about awarding it to a deceased. Too bad.

          I would like Freeman Dyson to get it, (I know he won’t) before he dies.

  3. Frank K. says:

    Meanwhile in the Antarctic…climate scientists are hard at work!

    Antarctic scientists face breathalyser tests due to alcohol-fuelled fighting and ‘indecent exposure’

    Audit of two Antarctic bases run by United States heard that alcohol was fuelling “unpredictable behaviour”, with calls to deploy breathalysers

    “Officials from the National Science Foundation told an audit of healthy and safety at the two US-run bases — McMurdo Station and the South Pole — that drinking has led to “unpredictable behaviour that has led to fights, indecent exposure, and employees arriving to work under the influence”, …”


    • This two-pot screamer polly would fit right in …

      • rah says:

        They’re depressed because many of them suffer from perpetual cabin fever during the long Antarctic winter. Lots of people aren’t psychologically cut out for those conditions no matter what their academic background or desire to try and do it is. I suspect that they don’t screen people for compatibility either and the type of person a real know-it-all can tolerate the least is another real know-it-all. No place to get away.

        • darrylb says:

          When I was stationed at Fort Wainright near Fairbanks, Alaska in the winter in survival mode, the days on end with nothing to see but flat land and jack pine (at that location) were considerably boring. The mission was simply to survive, then move and survive again and then do the same again.

          Icicles formed on your eyebrows, eyelids and down from your nose. Windchill could be
          -100 deg F.

          Dead branches and snow formed a temporary home. Using the snow was difficult because it was so dry and powdery. We had to move on skis or snow shoes because otherwise we would sink to our waist in the powder. Because it was necessary to not have a fire, other means had to be used to melt snow. or to try to keep warm.
          I was a platoon sargent at that time. Had to have half the men awake at all times in a buddy system to make sure there were no cold injuries.

          Alcohol was definitely taboo. The only females we saw were cows literally. Female moose of course. .
          So, I don’t feel sorry for their mild situation

        • rah says:

          There is a real difference in such situations for military compared to civilians not indoctrinated into the life style and discipline. We learned about putting up with idiots or those we disagreed with in a situation where your in contact with them day in and day out from Basic training on. It’s comparing apples to oranges.

        • Gail Combs says:

          RAH, I will dis agree with you there. If you are manning an Antarctic station where people are isolated for months with no pull out you DARN WELL better make sure they can go the course.

          This is just another example of the very sloppy crap we have learned to expect from Academia.

          I was never in the military but we made darn sure that when we did a big caving expedition we screened out the idiots.

        • rah says:

          Well you can disagree but the what I was talking about is that comparing academics to troops is apples to oranges. Academics may have had to put up with a dorm room mate or frat brothers or sorority sisters but never had to put up with a whole open bay barracks full of people that were going to stand inspection every early morning and do everything from eat to train to get a hair cut together day in and day out. Let alone deal with that in a system in which the whole group is punished for the failures of a single member at times.

          There is a real difference. But like I said at the top it is something that could be helped by screening. But I suspect that they don’t do that because I suspect that the majority are very sure they are superior to the average and so it’s not necessary.

        • rah says:

          BTW Gail I know you’ve said your up on a hill but I was kinda wondering how wet you all got in your area?

        • Gail Combs says:


          No real problem. I have certainly seen a heck of a lot more water than we have right now.

    • Robertv says:

      I suppose they are depressed now real data is no longer required. Their life’s work has become meaningless.

  4. rah says:

    I notice the current track “forecast” shows it passing well north of the Azores but if I were there I sure wouldn’t be trusting it. Passed through there several times.

    Back when they grounded all of the C-130s later than the B models due to a crash that was suspected to have been the result of a failure in the wing box my team was scheduled to be flown back from Ft. Devens, MA. We had been there for weeks in a fenced and razor wired compound planning our real world contingency mission in the event of WW III starting and had to get back to Flint Kasserne in Bad Tolz to get ready for other training.

    So the USAF came up with an old C-130B model. That aircraft was built when I was 4 or 5 year old. We took the southern route and landed at Lajes AFB in the Azores with a prop feathered due to and engine failure and were stuck there for a week before another aircraft brought in the spare and they got it changed out with the bad engine.

    So we had plenty of time to wonder around the island and check out historic places. But to this day what I remember best was a hair cut I got while there. I was getting a little shaggy so I decided to go down into town and get a hair cut. Bad decision. The guy gave me a good hair cut but his BO made my eyes water as he had his elbows raised out to the side and snipped his scissors all the time in a big show as some European barbers do.

  5. Robertv says:

    It could make a 180 and make landfall in South Carolina .

  6. AndyG55 says:

    Gees, come on guys.. there were at least as accurate as the climate models have been !! 😉

    • DD More says:

      Diameter of Arctic Circle & Antarctic Circle is about 3,500 miles. Compare their 3,160 mile and add +/- , they cannot even hit the diameter of the ice extent.

  7. Andy DC says:

    It looks like now we are going to make into the 11th year with no major hurricane.

    • Gail Combs says:

      BUT,BUT, BUT… There was a THOUSAND YEAR RAINFALL EVENT in South Carolina!!! — Whine, whinge, snivel….

      • Andy Oz says:

        We had a 10,000 year drought event today in Western Australia.
        It didn’t rain at all today. 😀
        Suck on that South Carolina!

        • Gail Combs says:

          I am sure they would love to send some of that nice rain to you Andy, Actually I would like to send some of NC’s rain. Today is the first day I have seen the sun and my fungi is growing mold.

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