Instant NOAA Forecast Fail

NOAA sent out this forecast this morning showing a warm December in the US

2015-11-19-12-02-28

And this afternoon, NCEP is forecasting a massive coast to coast cold blast for the first week in December.

2015-11-19-12-02-46

10-Day Temperature Outlook for the Conterminous U.S.

About stevengoddard

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28 Responses to Instant NOAA Forecast Fail

  1. Martin Smith says:

    That’s weather, Steven, not climate. There’s a difference.

    [SG : That is a failed medium term climate forecast. There is a difference between people who can think logically, and climate alarmists]

    • Dave N says:

      “[SG : That is a failed medium term climate forecast. There is a difference between people who can think logically, and climate alarmists]”

      Common trait of alarmists: take any observation and blow it all out of proportion.

    • NOAA paints everything Red now… Hot.. even when its COLD.

    • Andy DC says:

      The obvious point is that the same people who are totally clueless about US weather for December 2015 are saying they are all knowing about US weather for December 2100. If you even question them, you should flogged in the public square.

      Every idiot knows that with weather forecasting, you skill goes down with time, not up!

    • Smith, were you born this way?

    • Martin Smith says:

      Steven, a month in weather forecasting is long term. Weather forecasts are generally one to five days. In any case, it makes no sense for you to try to discredit NOAA by discrediting a NOAA weather forecast, which, BTW, has not turned out to be wrong yet. If you must in desperation attack NOAA’s weather forecast, at least wait until the actual weather happens, which won’t be until the end of December. We are still in November.

    • catweazle666 says:

      Still stalking, you pathetic little troll?

      GET A LIFE!

      • AndyG55 says:

        He must be checking it quite often to be always there for the first post.

        What a sad, empty, little existence he must lead.

        As you say.. PATHETIC !!!

  2. dave1billion says:

    To be fair, the NOAA graph closely tracks the trends normally associated with an El Niño.

    But that doesn’t undercut your point on the fallibility of NOAA predictions.

    Somehow, we’re supposed to believe that “short term” predictions are much more unreliable than predictions stretching out a century. Because the Butterfly Effect only applies to short term predictions.

    • I was talking to Joe D’Aleo this morning and he pointed out that this El Nino is very different from 1998.

      • AndyG55 says:

        It seems to be producing a sort of wide bulge in surface temperatures, rather than the traditional spike.

        What happens when it has finished will be very interesting, especially when you remember that an El Nino is an ocean cooling event.

      • rah says:

        Joe Bastardi has been saying that for weeks. The warm water never came up against tthe coast but stayed further west. Also this El Nino appears to have peaked now. The bottom has dropped out of the SOI. . http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-november-14-2015

        Further were going to be colder than normal through the heartland going east for the next two weeks starting next week. Then it’s going to be milder than normal for a time but with a lot of winter precip. Thus there’s plenty chance of snow for Christmas in the midwest and east. Joe goes over this into todays weekday update video.

        • NoMoreGore says:

          California really needs the water…. and I love it when prognostications of climate doom don’t come true.

          Remarkably, just a few days ago, one of the weather channels on cable did a countdown of ten “worst” hurricanes of all time. Well, I think that’s what they called it. The remarkable part was that they didn’t lie so much, and they didn’t even talk about Klimate Koo koo. They still had Katrina in the #1 spot, but they actually reported that the great 1935 storm in the keys actually had the lowest pressure and fastest winds, and they did justice to Galveston in 1900. They also reported the Okeechobee hurricane in 1928 would be the most costly if it occurred today.

          But they had Sandy on the list, which I thought was a farce. And as I recall, Katrina hit and passed over New Orleans, and initially, there was a sigh of relief….. it wasn’t storm surge that flooded the city as I recall, but unfortified levees and non working storm pumps. I remember seeing the flood begin when the levees were breached from unmanaged drainage of water from lands inland of the city…… AFTER the storm had passed.

          Even Wiki is telling the story fairly straight:
          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_levee_failures_in_Greater_New_Orleans

          Katrina was a CAT 3. Hardly the worst storm of all time.

        • Gail Combs says:

          If the warm water stayed further west doesn’t that make it an El Niño Modoki?

          From Bob tisdale a comparison to the 1997/8 ‘Super El Niño’

          Looks like it is not that far west.

          Of course with NOAA messing up the data with ‘adjustments’ it is hard to tell what in heck is happening.

        • rah says:

          Joe has described it a Modoki like but though I have not the knowledge to tell you why he doesn’t call it a Modoki out right I suspect the warm water is still not far enough west for that classification. What I do know is that for a couple months now he has been saying that this El Nino, while still stiff a strong one, is NOT anything like the last big one in the way it will effect weather patterns this winter because of the differences in where the warm surface water is and because of other SST differences in the rest of the Pacific now as compared to then.

  3. OrganicFool says:

    NOAA was hacked by China in 2014 and didn’t notify proper authorities

    “The two-day outage skewed the accuracy of National Weather Service long-range forecasts slightly, according to NOAA.”

    It’s China’s fault! A little better than “the dog ate my homework”.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/chinese-hack-us-weather-systems-satellite-network/2014/11/12/bef1206a-68e9-11e4-b053-65cea7903f2e_story.html

  4. darrylb says:

    Either way, I am going to where the climate warms!!

  5. Martin Smith says:

    BTW, Steven, for the last week, the continental US was pretty much warmer than normal: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.anim.html

    And the Arctic was pretty much waaaaaaay warmer than normal.

  6. rah says:

    Well here in Central Indiana we are forecast to get our first dusting of global warming come Saturday night while Chicago is supposed to get a record setting amount of it for any November storm. And the people along the I-80 corridor in Nebraska and Wyoming are in for a lot of global warming also.

    I’m just glad I no longer have to haul across I-80 in Wyoming in that stuff up there. Dealing with the lake effect along I-90 and the record amounts of Global Warming Boston got last winter was quite enough for me.

    • Gail Combs says:

      Looks like the start of the busy season for you RAH. Stay safe.
      …..

      So you were at Bragg as well as Fort Devens.. We have done a lot of parties for the Brag folks since we moved down here from Leominster MA twenty years ago.

      • rah says:

        All Special Forces go through Bragg for most but not all of their initial training to become qualified. Personally I was happy once I graduated the SFQC to get out of that post and go to Devens away from the JFK Center flag pole. But I still went back several times for SF schools/training over the years since most all of the SF schools are located there. Some team training and some individual training. In fact the last military course I went through before I ETSed from regular service was the 3 month long SFANOC (SF Advanced Non commissioned Officers Course) at Ft. Bragg. Other courses I attended there. SOT which was that counter terrorist training course I mentioned. ATLS (Advanced Trauma Life Support). And the 2nd pilot course for SERE Level III ( now called Level C) then being set up by the legendary Nick Rowe. (Five Years to Freedom).

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