The Climate Scientist Who Got It Right

ScreenHunter_804 Mar. 21 15.34

In 1996, CSU’s Bill Gray predicted weak cooling for the next 20-30 years.

ScreenHunter_801 Mar. 21 15.15

His forecast was spot on.

ScreenHunter_802 Mar. 21 15.17

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

Hurricanes spiked shortly after Bill made his forecast.

ScreenHunter_811 Mar. 21 17.27

Bill’s reward for extreme competence and forecasting accuracy, was to be ostracized by the climate science community and have his funding cut off by Al Gore.  (Meanwhile, people like James Hansen have received huge amounts of funding and acclaim for spreading junk science and disastrously poor predictions.)

Bill Gray is a man of unwavering principle, and has self-funded his efforts to get the truth out about global warming for decades. Bill’s wife Nancy (who passed away in 2001) was mayor of Fort Collins in the early 1980’s, and was largely responsible for setting up the great set of bike trails which I use several times every day.

ScreenHunter_803 Mar. 21 15.30


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44 Responses to The Climate Scientist Who Got It Right

  1. Cornelius says:

    Steve, anyone, I’m in need of a reference. I was contacted by a well-known author from the realm of individual freedom and Libertarianism (and for whom I once worked), who is embarking on a documentary. He has specifically asked for a “scientist in California (preferably Southern CA) that dispute the Hockey Stick.”

    Are you aware of anyone who fits that description and might be willing? The documentary itself is not specifically regarding global warming, but will include a short piece on the subject. The scientist would most likely be in a short video segment.

    Any assistance would be greatly appreciated.

    My apologies for posting this in the comment section of this article, but didn’t know where else to go.

    • Richard Muller at Berkeley has been very critical of the Hockey Stick, but he is not someone I would necessarily trust.

      • Gail Combs says:

        No Mueller is NOT TRUST WORTHY!

        He really screwed Anthony.

        Also he has a President of Shell oil in his consulting company and Shell Oil is very much connected to the IPCC and CRU.

        (I can dig up the references and links if any one wants them.)

        • darrylb says:

          Gail, yes I would, and Thanks in advance

        • Gail Combs says:

          Here are the references as promised since some one asked. (Dig, Dig Scrounge)

          Muller was never a “Climate Skeptic” as his 2003 and other published comments shows. However he did claim he WAS a skeptic and that the data made him change his mind after the publication of the BEST study. In other words he is a liar.
          Muller’s article in the New York Times as an Op-Ed Contributor

          The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic
          By RICHARD A. MULLER
          Published: July 28, 2012

          CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause.

          My total turnaround, in such a short time, is the result of careful and objective analysis by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, which I founded with my daughter Elizabeth. Our results show that the average temperature of the earth’s land has risen by two and a half degrees Fahrenheit over the past 250 years, including an increase of one and a half degrees over the most recent 50 years. Moreover, it appears likely that essentially all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases….

          Here our older quote showing the man was NEVER a skeptic.

          December 17, 2003
          “Let me be clear. My own reading of the literature and study of paleoclimate suggests strongly that carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels will prove to be the greatest pollutant of human history.” from

          From PopTech, always a good source of accumulated information.

          “I was never a skeptic” – Richard Muller, 2011

          “If Al Gore reaches more people and convinces the world that global warming is real, even if he does it through exaggeration and distortion – which he does, but he’s very effective at it – then let him fly any plane he wants.” – Richard Muller, 2008

          “There is a consensus that global warming is real. …it’s going to get much, much worse.” – Richard Muller, 2006

          Shell Oil and Muller in next comment (it is LOOooong)

        • Gail Combs says:

          Muller & Assoc.

          Richard Muller , President and Chief Scientist
          …Muller & Associates provides expertise for energy challenges that deserve the best minds in the world. Our senior-level team includes Nobel Laureates, MacArthur Geniuses, and recognized global leaders with experience in over 30 countries. We integrate science with business acumen, economics, and long-term trends to ensure that our clients are making the right investments for their organization.

          We know that in order to be effective, solutions must be sustainable…
          and we know that for businesses, sustainable solutions must be profitable as well.

          GreenGov™ is a service offered by Muller & Associates for Governments, International Organizations, non profits, and other organizations that work with Government. The aim is to provide politically-neutral counsel that is broad in scope while rooted in the hard facts of state-of-the-art science and engineering. The key is to make the right patch between the best technologies and the strengths of the government. We know that to be effective the political dimension must be integrated into the technical plan from the start…

          A key word is SUSTAINABLE This ties to the UN Agenda 21, Ged Davis, Shell Oil and the IPCC. (I will get back to that in the next post since it needs special mention.)

          If you then go to the listing of the TEAM at Muller Assoc. you find. Arthur Rosenfeld, Former California Energy Commissioner among others.

          Further down you find Marlan DowneyOil and Gas Executive

          Clicking on Marlan Downey,
          And guess what ? We are BACK TO SHELL OIL!

          “Marlan Downey, Oil and Gas Executive
          ….. Former President of the international subsidiary of Shell Oil…..”

          A big question is “Who organized the money?” This is no small time group with those high priced consultants on board.

          What many miss is a privately held company is an excellent way to hide BRIBES AS CONSULTING FEES!

          Next the Shell Oil connections:

        • Gail Combs says:

          Notice the repeating of the date 1972. (One of the questions, at least in my mind is when did the USA take a U-turn from encouraging a good economy and why. I think we can pin point it to the early 1970s.)

          From the 1974 CIA Report.
          “A Study of Climatological Research as it Pertains to Intelligence Problems”

          Click to access 1974.pdf

          “… Since 1972 the grain crisis has intensified…. Since 1969 the storage of grain has decreased from 600 million metric tons to less than 100 million metric tons – a 30 day supply… many governments have gone to great lengths to hide their agricultural predicaments from other countries as well as from their own people…

          pg 9
          The archaeologists and climatotologists document a rather grim history… There is considerable evidence that these empires may not have been undone by barbarian invaders but by climatic change…. has tied several of these declines to specific global cool periods, major and minor, that affected global atmospheric circulation and brought wave upon wave of drought to formerly rich agricultural lands.

          ….The world is too densely populated and politically divided to accommodate mass migration.

          Page 18 talks of coming glaciation.
          Scientists are confident that unless man is able to effectively modify the climate, the northern regions… will again be covered with 100 to 200 feet of ice and snow. That this will occur within the nexy 2,500 years they are quite positive; that it may occur sooner is open to speculation.

          page 22 states:
          The climate of the 1800s was far less favorable for agriculture in most areas of the world….

          So in 1972 the grain crisis was stirring up the Neo-Malthusians and you got books like The Population Bomb written by Paul R. Ehrlich and Obama’s science Czar John Holdren

          Also in that fateful year of 1972 CRU (Climate Reseach Unit of East Anglia of Climategate fame) was founded by two Big Oil companies (Shell and BP) and the last I looked that hadn’t been removed from their Wikipedia page (yet):

          Initial sponsors included British Petroleum, the Nuffield Foundation and Royal Dutch Shell.[5] The Rockefeller Foundation was another early benefactor, and the Wolfson Foundation gave the Unit its current building in 1986.[4]

          Then you look at the two agencies who founded the IPCC. these were WMO (World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland) and UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). From there look at who founded the UNEP:

          During December 1972, the UN General Assembly unanimously elected Maurice Strong to head UNEP. Also Secretary General of both the 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, which launched the world environment movement, and the 1992 Earth Summit, Strong has played a critical role is globalizing the environmental movement.

          Where did Strong get his start:

          Born in Oak Lake, Manitoba, Strong had his start as a petroleum entrepreneur and became president of Power Corporation until 1966. In the early 1970s he was Secretary-General of the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment and then became the first Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme. He returned to Canada to become Chief Executive Officer of Petro-Canada from 1976 to 1978.

          The UN Earth Summit in 1972 is when Maurice Strong invited activists to go home and raise He!! thereby shifting political power from the adults to easily manipulated spoiled teenagers.

          Elaine Dewar wrote in Toronto’s Saturday Night magazine:

          It is instructive to read Strong’s 1972 Stockholm speech and compare it with the issues of Earth Summit 1992. Strong warned urgently about global warming, the devastation of forests, the loss of biodiversity, polluted oceans, the population time bomb. Then as now, he invited to the conference the brand-new environmental NGOs [non-governmental organizations]: he gave them money to come; they were invited to raise he!! at home. After Stockholm, environment issues became part of the administrative framework in Canada, the U.S., Britain, and Europe.

          Al Gore and Maurice Strong are both members of the Club of Rome who published the Neo-Malthusianism book entitled The Limits to Growth in 1972.

          And then there is Big Oil and Pachauri.

          I can’t quite see what all the fuss is about Watson – why should he be re-nominated anyway? Why should not an Indian scientist chair IPCC? One could argue the CC issue is more important for the South than for the North. Watson has perhaps thrown his weight about too much in the past. The science is well covered by Susan Solomon in WGI, so why not get an engineer/economist since many of the issues now raised by CC are more to do with energy and money, than natural science.
          If the issue is that Exxon have lobbied and pressured Bush, then OK, this is regrettable but to be honest is anyone really surprised? All these decisions about IPCC chairs and co-chairs are deeply political (witness DEFRA’s support of Martin Parry for getting the WGII nomination).

          See all the stuff linked at the bottom of the email

          MORE on Shell oil….

        • Gail Combs says:

          (Darn the last comment got kicked into the ether)

          Anyway more on Shell Oil.
          Royal Dutch Shell:
          The Dutch royal family (The House of Orange) is still reportedly the biggest shareholder in the Dutch part of the group, although the size of its stake has long been a source of debate. The Queen of England is also a major stockholder book link and Scuttlebutt and more More Scuttlebutt.

          Prince Bernhard of the Dutch Royal Family is the Founding President of World Wildlife Fund (WWF). HRH The Duke of Edinburgh served as International President of WWF for 16 years until his retirement at the end of 1996.

          John H. Loudon, Better known as “the Grand Old Man of Shell”, headed Royal Dutch Shell from 1951 to 1965…. He was President of WWF from 1976 to 1981, and also a member of The 1001 Club.

          Ruud Lubbers served three terms as Prime Minister of the Netherlands between 1982 and 1994, thus becoming the longest serving Dutch Prime Minister. He continued in Parliament as Senior Deputy Leader, and later Parliamentary Leader of the Christian Democratic Alliance. He became President of WWF International on 1 January 2000, but only served for one year as he was appointed United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees from 2001-2005.
          Positively incestuous isn’t it?

          Another major stockholder is the Rothschilds. The Rothschild Investment Trust was formed in 1988 => RIT Capital Partners. See Rockefellers and Rothschilds Unite: (wwwDOT)

          Then we look at the Shell Board of Directors.
          Peter Voser
          Chief Executive Officer
          … a member of the Swiss Federal Auditor Oversight Authority from 2006 to December 2010. In 2011…

          Josef Ackermann
          Non-executive Director
          … He is Chairman of the Board of Directors of Zurich Insurance Group Limited and of Zurich Insurance Company Limited, positions he has held since March 2012.

          … he held a variety of positions in corporate banking, foreign exchange/money markets, treasury and investment banking…. He also has various roles in several foundations and academic institutions….

          Charles O. Holliday
          Non-executive Director
          … He served as Chief Executive Officer of DuPont from 1998 to January 2009, and as Chairman from 1999 to December 2009…. He previously served as Chairman of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, Chairman of The Business Council, Chairman of Catalyst, Chairman of the Society of Chemical Industry – American Section, and is a founding member of the International Business Council. He is Chairman of the Board of Directors of Bank of America Corporation and a Director of Deere & Company.

          Gerard Kleisterlee
          Non-executive Director
          …He is Chairman of Vodafone Group plc, a member of the Supervisory Board of Daimler AG, and a Director of Dell Inc.

          Christine Morin-Postel
          Non-executive Director
          …. she was Chief Executive of Société Générale de Belgique, Executive Vice-President and a member of the Executive Committee of Suez S.A., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Crédisuez S.A. and a Non-executive Director of Pilkington plc, Alcan Inc. and EXOR S.p.A. She is a Non-executive Director of British American Tobacco plc.

          Sir Nigel Sheinwald GCMG
          Non-executive Director
          He was a senior British diplomat who served as British Ambassador to the USA from 2007 to 2012. He joined the Diplomatic Service in 1976 and served in Brussels (twice), Washington and Moscow and in a wide range of policy roles in London. He served as British Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the European Union in Brussels from 2000 to 2003. Prior to his appointment as British Ambassador to the USA, he served as Foreign Policy and Defence Adviser to the Prime Minister and Head of the Cabinet Office Defence and Overseas Secretariat. He retired from the Diplomatic Service in March 2012….

          Linda G. Stuntz
          Non-executive Director
          She is a founding partner of the law firm of Stuntz, Davis & Staffier, P.C., based in Washington, D.C. Her law practice includes energy and environmental regulation as well as matters relating to government support of technology development and transfer. From 1989 to 1993, she held senior policy positions at the U.S. Department of Energy, including Deputy Secretary. She played a principal role in the development and enactment of the Energy Policy Act of 1992.

          From 1981 to 1987, she was an Associate Minority Counsel and Minority Counsel to the Energy and Commerce Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives. She chaired the Electricity Advisory Committee to the U.S. Department of Energy from 2008 to 2009, and was a member of the Board of Directors of Schlumberger Limited from 1993 to 2010. She is a member of the Board of Directors of Raytheon Company. [Raytheon does mostly government contracts G.C.]

          Jeroen van der Veer
          Non-executive Director
          ….He was Vice-Chairman and Senior Independent Director of Unilever (which includes Unilever N.V. and Unilever plc) until May 2011 and is Chairman of the Supervisory Boards of Koninklijke Philips Electronics N.V. and of ING Group. He also has various roles in several foundations and charities.

          Gerrit Zalm
          Non-executive Director
          He is Chairman of the Board of Management of ABN AMRO Bank N.V., a position he has held since February 2009. Before joining ABN AMRO, he was the Minister of Finance of the Netherlands from 1994 until 2002, Chairman of the VVD Liberal Party in the Lower House (2002) and Minister of Finance from 2003 until 2007. During 2007 until 2009 he was an adviser to PricewaterhouseCoopers (2007), Chairman of the trustees of the International Accounting Standards Board (2007-2010), an adviser to Permira (private equity fund) (2007-2008) and Chief Financial Officer of DSB Bank (2008). Prior to 1994, he was head of the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, a professor at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and held various positions at the Ministry of Finance and at the Ministry of Economic Affairs. ….

          Rather well connected to governments, NGOs and various banks are they not?

          Finally we come to Ged Davis a Shell Oil VP with IPCC connections who was in the Climategate E-mails. and another post.

        • Gail Combs says:

          Ged Davis and Shell Oil

          Ged Davis was an IPCC Lead Author on Emission scenarios. Davis is little know within the skeptic community but he is the one planing your future. A future based on Holdern and Ehrlich’s 1972 idea of de-development of the USA. (That is why all the background)

          Notice the Ged Davis connections to Stanford University (John Holdren was a graduate, Paul R. Ehrlich is president of Stanford’s Center for Conservation Biology, Leif Svalgaard is prof. at Stanford University in solar physics) and to the Fabian founded London School of Economics (LSE.)

          Scenarios Come to Davos
          A GBN Conversation with Ged Davis

          As one of the masterminds behind the World Economic Forum’s annual Davos gathering, this seasoned Shell scenarist is once again poised to help global business tackle the world’s problems.

          …Ged Davis is one of those rare people who has a mastery of both craft and content. His craft is scenario planning, which he has been practicing nearly since its inception. In 1972, Ged joined Royal Dutch/Shell, where he worked alongside Pierre Wack, the godfather of scenarios, as well as GBN’s own Napier Collyns and Peter Schwartz. He later became the head of scenario planning at Shell, and over the course of his career spearheaded many innovations in the form. At the same time, he developed deep knowledge about energy, climate change, sustainability, and global social problems like the spread of HIV/AIDS. In many ways, Ged epitomizes the wise, socially responsible European business perspective—which is one reason he was recently chosen to head the World Economic Forum’s new Centre for Strategic Insight, the entity now responsible for setting the agenda for the Forum’s prestigious annual gathering in Davos….

          …After completing my studies in London, I got an offer to go to Stanford University. I found California rather liberating, with many interesting ideas developing. I was very interested in economics, and soon got an offer to go to the London School of Economics

          After LSE, I was offered a job at Stanford Industrial Park, and while I was working there got heavily involved in studying engineering economic systems at Stanford. [**Think Ehrlich and Holdern – see below] It was also there that I met and took courses from Willis Harmon. In 1969, I remember well a course, which he ran, in which we looked at the world’s problems as a whole —that was my first real experience in handling global issues from a holistic perspective, in a way I would later do with scenarios….

          …then I headed a new unit working on new scenario processes and applications. I had started to develop something different from what Shell was doing—namely, techniques that would allow groups of 60 or so people to develop scenarios. I tried these methods out with a project for the World Business Council for Sustainable Development on the future of sustainable development, which turned out to be a surprisingly successful project. The scenarios had considerable impact, largely, I think, because the techniques we developed almost forced ownership. So I got very much involved with the question of how you build scenarios that are owned by larger groups of people with a capacity to act. For me, that was an important step in my own thinking.….

          **Holdern and Ehrlich

          ….A massive campaign must be launched to restore a high-quality environment in North America and to de-develop the United States. De-devolopment means bringing our economic system (especially patterns of consumption) into line with the realities of ecology and the global resource situation. Resources and energy must be diverted from frivolous and wasteful uses in overdeveloped countries to filling the genuine needs of underdeveloped countries….

          The need for de-development presents our economists with a major challenge.. They must design a stable, low-consumption economy in which there is a much more equitable distribution of wealth than the present one…
          – John Holdren, Anne Ehrlich, and Paul Ehrlich, Human Ecology: Problems and Solutions (San Francisco; W.H. Freeman and Company, 1973)

          So Ged Davis was the head ‘Economist’ who designed Agenda 21 aka Sustainability based on Ehrlich and Holdren’s ideas of a “stable, low-consumption economy in which there is a much more equitable distribution of wealth than the present one”

          A more recent Bio gives even more information on Davis:

          Ged Davis is co-president of the Global Energy Assessment.

          Previously he was managing director of the World Economic Forum, responsible for global research, scenario projects, and the design of the annual Forum meeting at Davos, which brings together 2,400 corporate, government, and non-profit leaders to shape the global agenda.
          Ged is a member of the InterAcademy Council Panel on Transitions to Sustainable Energy, a director of Low Carbon Accelerator Limited, a governor of the International Development Research Centre in Ottawa and a member of the INDEX Design Awards Jury. He was the director of the UNAIDS “AIDS in Africa” scenario project from 2002 to 2003. Ged has led a large number of scenario projects during his career, including the multi-year, multi-stakeholder scenarios on the future of sustainability for the World Business Council for Sustainable Development and was facilitator of the last IPCC emissions scenarios. Ged first graduated with a degree in Mining Engineering from Imperial, College London. He holds postgraduate degrees in Economics and Engineering from the London School of Economics and Stanford University ….

          Now the e-mail with his various scenarios:
          ClimateGate (1) email 0889554019 The e-mail attachment includes his Sustainable Development (B1) scenario aka UN Agenda 21.
          This is part of one of the Scenarios Sustainable Development later called Agenda 21.

          4. Sustainable Development (B1)

          The central elements of this scenario family include high levels of environmental and social consciousness, successful governance including major social innovation, and reductions in income and social inequality. Successful forms of governance allow many problems which are currently hard or difficult to resolve to fall within the competency of government and other organisations. Solutions reflect a wide stakeholder dialogue leading to consent on international environmental and social agreements. This is coupled with bottom-up solutions to problems, which reflect wide success in getting broad-based support within communities.

          The concerns over global sustainable development, expressed in a myriad of environmental and social issues, results in the eventual successful management of the interaction between human activities and the biosphere. While no explicit climate policy is undertaken, other kinds of initiatives lead to lower energy use, and clean energy systems, which significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Besides cleaning up air quality, there is emphasis on improving the availability and quality of water.

          4.2 Scenarios

          4.21 Energy Resources/Technology
          Energy efficiency innovations, and successful institutional innovations disseminating their use, result in much lower levels of energy use relative to historic patterns. The forward-looking nature of societal planning results in relatively smooth transitions to alternative energy systems as conventional oil and gas resources dwindle in availability. There is major use of unconventional natural gas as fuel supply during the transition, but the major push is towards renewable resources such as solar and wind. The impact of environmental concerns is a significant factor in the planning for new energy systems.

          Two alternative energy systems, leading to two sub-scenarios, are considered to provide this energy:

          1. Widespread expansion of natural gas, with a growing role for renewable energy (scenario B1N). Oil and coal are of lesser importance, especially post-2050. This transition is faster in the developed than in the developing countries.

          2. A more rapid development of renewables, replacing coal and oil; the bulk of the remaining energy coming from natural gas (scenario B1R).

        • Gail Combs says:

          Here is more on the (B1) scenario IPCC Emissions Scenarios 4.3.3. B1 Storyline and Scenario Family

          A meeting at the UN on Sustainable Development aka Agenda 21 Note this is talking about Scenario B1 The same one that is in the Ged Davis E-mail.

          * Sustainable Development

          13th session of the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development
          (Source: Earth Negotiations Bulletin, Vol. 5 No. 218, 11 Apr 05)

          The thirteenth session of the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD-13) takes place from 11-22 April 2005, at UN headquarters in New York. CSD-13 is the second session to be held since the new multi-year programme of work was adopted at CSD-11 in 2003. The new work programme restructured CSD’s work on the basis of two-year “Implementation Cycles.” Each Implementation Cycle is comprised of a Review Year and a Policy Year, and focuses on a thematic cluster of issues. Building on the outcomes of CSD-12 (which was the Review Year of the first cycle), CSD-13 will focus on policies and options to expedite implementation of commitments in the areas of water, sanitation and human settlements, as contained in Agenda 21, the Programme for the Further Implementation of Agenda 21, the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation and the Millennium Declaration. Various cross-cutting issues will also be addressed….

          There is also a wee bit of conspiracy stuff (puts on tinfoil hat)
          One question is why the heck does Shell Oil need to hire a guy in 1970 for scenario planning, strategy??? ESPECIALLY “Sustainable Development’s Global Scenarios”

          In 1969, Rockefeller Official Said US Would Be De-industrialized
          On March 20, 1969, Dr. Richard Day, the National Medical Director of the Rockefeller-sponsored “Planned Parenthood” told a meeting that American industry will be sabotaged and shown to be unreliable and uncompetitive.

          In view of the recent bankruptcy of General Motors, his remarks are especially pertinent.

          “The stated plan was that different parts of the world would be assigned different roles of industry and commerce in a unified global system. The continued preeminence of the United States and the relative independence and self-sufficiency of the United States would have to be changed… in order to create a new structure, you first have to tear down the old, and American industry was one example of that.”

          “Each part of the world will have a specialty and thus become inter-dependent, he said. The US will remain a center for agriculture, high tech, communications, and education but heavy industry would be “transported out.”

          These remarks to the Pittsburgh Pediatric Society were reported by Dr. Lawrence Dunegan, a Pittsburgh pediatrician who died in Jan. 2004. The speech described “A New World System” already in place which would permanently transform the world. Dr. Day, who died in 1989 (see obit below), wanted the 80 or so physicians present to be prepared.

          Dunegan recalls: “The idea was, you could get a little bit disgusted with your Ford, GM, or Chrysler product -or whatever- because little things like window handles would fall off more, and plastic parts would break which, had they been made of metal, would hold up. Your patriotism about buying American would soon give way to practicality that if you bought Japanese, German, or imported that it would last longer and you would be better off. Patriotism would go down the drain then.”…

        • Gail Combs says:

          I hope you can follow my ramblings and understand why “Shell Oil” and “Sustainability’ are major triggers.

          Sorry about the formating errors and not putting this together better. It comes from several notes I made over the years. (Some of the links may be dead.)

      • Steven Mosher says:

        He really screwed Anthony.

        Huh? he reported to congress that our results matched Anthony’s results.
        Which they did.

        • Gail Combs says:

          Anthony just said within the last few months that he would not release any of his data until AFTER he had finished his paper because his trust had been compromised. Was he talking of YOU Mosher?

          Anthony a few years ago says this of BEST:

          The rush to judgment they fomented before science had a chance to speak is worse than anything I’ve ever seen, and from my early dealings with them, I can say that I had no idea they would do this, otherwise I would not have embraced them so openly. A lie of omission is still a lie, and I feel that I was not given the true intentions of the BEST group when I met with them.

          And still, he hasn’t published anything and his papers have not passed peer review, but the political apparatchik wants to showcase the incomplete and rushed, non quality controlled, error riddled BEST science as if it were factual enough to kill off “denialism” worldwide. That’s political desperation in my opinion.


          In another article Anthony says:

          Many people have now had some time to read the papers issued in preprint form from the Best project. My strong impression is that they are mostly poorly written, badly argued and at this stage unfit for submission to a major journal….

          I’ve been sitting on this little gem for a year now, and it is finally time to point it out since nobody seems to have caught it.

          I expected that after the peer review BEST been though (and failed), that this would have been fixed. Nope. I thought after the media blitzes it would have been fixed. Nope. I thought that after they submitted it to The Third Santa Fe Conference on Global and Regional Climate Change somebody would point it out and fix it. Nope. I thought after I pointed it out in Watts et el 2012 draft paper, surely one of the BEST co-authors would fix it. Still nope….

          Of course none of this really matters much, because the data that BEST had (the same data from Fall et al 2011), was binned improperly anyway due to surface area of the heat sinks and sources not being considered, which when combined with the binning assumption, rendered the Muller/BEST paper pointless.

          I wonder, if Dr. Judith Curry will ask her name to be taken off of this paper too?

          An earlier remark:

          What I disagree with

          1. The way they dealt with my surfacestation data in analysis was flat-out wrong, and I told them so days ahead of this release. They offered no correction, nor even an acknowledgement of the issue. The issue has to do with the 60 year period they used. Both peer-reviewed papers on the subject, Menne et al 2010, and Fall et al 2011 used 30 year periods. This is a key point because nobody knows (not me, not NOAA, not BEST) what the siting quality of weather stations was 30-60 years ago. Basically they did an analysis on a time period for which metadata doesn’t exist….

          3. The release method they chose, of having a media blitzkrieg of press release and writers at major MSM outlets lined up beforehand is beyond the pale.….

        • Gail Combs says:

          Here Anthony is even more blunt. (Took me a couple minutes to dig this out.)

          Pertinax says:
          January 30, 2014 at 11:19 am

          Hi Evan,

          Are the station classifications available publicly at this time?

          REPLY: no, not until our paper is published, we’ve been hijacked in the past by both NOAA and BEST for sharing this data ahead of publication, and I won’t do so again – Anthony

          So Mosher unless he meant YOU, I must assume he meant Muller, as head of BEST.

          And in the same thread Important study on temperature adjustments: ‘homogenization…can lead to a significant overestimate of rising trends of surface air temperature.’

          evanmjones says:
          January 29, 2014 at 6:39 pm
          ….It’s my ultimate ambition to get ahold of the entire GHCN raw data and the metadata (TOBS, moves, equipment changes, etc.) and do the Muller job properly (i.e., using the correct microsite metric). If it’s possible, which it may or may not be, depending on whether that information even exists.

          But . . .

          If the data on moves and TOBS is not sufficient, though, not only can it not be done, but the record we have — both adjusted and raw — is fatally compromised.

        • By Richard Muller on December 17, 2003

          Let me be clear. My own reading of the literature and study of paleoclimate suggests strongly that carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels will prove to be the greatest pollutant of human history. It is likely to have severe and detrimental effects on global climate. I would love to believe that the results of Mann et al. are correct, and that the last few years have been the warmest in a millennium.

    • Gail Combs says:

      You could try a friend of Anthony Watts. John Coleman, the founder of the Weather Channel and Chief meteorologist at KUSI-TV in San Diego.

    • darrylb says:

      The Feckless Mueller? Nope.

  2. Andy Oz says:

    Congratulations Bill! The world needs courage like yours.
    Not sycophants like Hansen and co.

    In the not too distant future, they will be tearing down the “statues” of Gore, Hansen et al just like they did in 1990 with Lenin, Stalin and Ceausescu!
    They are the Totalitarian sock puppets of the 2000’s.

    • Gail Combs says:

      I rather tear them down now.

      1. Nuclear energy currently generates 19 percent of our nation’s electricity. If all 38 units at risk were prematurely retired, about one-third of our nuclear fleet would be shut down. That is 6% of our base load.

      2. Econuts are having dams removed. In 1998 hydropower represented over 3.5 percent of our nation’s electricity. It is now down to 2.8 percent of the total energy.

      3. Obama is getting his way and closing down US coal plants that currently provide 42 percent of our nation’s electricity. (10% of coal capacity retiring between 2009 and 2015, most on the eastern seaboard.) So that is another 4% of the base load shut down.

      4. If the EPA gets its way the mercury retrofits will take 18 months must be done in 3 years. This means 1/2 of the coal units left must be shut down at a time.

      NERC, the nation’s leading authority on electric reliability, evaluated four major regulations now being proposed or implemented by the Environmental Protection Agency and found them to expose the United States to significant energy vulnerabilities. NERC estimates that nearly a quarter of our coal-fired capacity could be off-line by 2018 and that as many as 677 coal-fired units (258 gigawatts) would need to be temporarily shut down to install EPA-mandated equipment.[ii] These EPA regulations must be implemented within a 3-year window and the mandated equipment takes about 18 months to install. Because EPA’s three year timeline is so tight and the regulations affect so many units, utility companies are not sure that they can meet the standards and ensure reliability of the electricity system at the same time.

      Now picture all those ‘progressive parasites’ in Washington DC, PA, OH MD, DE VA, NC, IL when the bad winter weather hits in 1915 and the grid goes down and STAYS DOWN.

      Can you say riots?

      Now you know why the DHS has been buying Ammo including dumdum bullets by the truckload.

      Martial law and Obama for president forever…

      • Gamecock says:

        “Now you know why the DHS has been buying Ammo including dumdum bullets by the truckload.”

        Dumdum bullets? Really? You had me going up to that.

        • Ben says:


          Please see

          “Dumdum bullets” are a known synonym for expanding bullets

        • Gail Combs says:

          Yeah, Dumdum bullets aka hollow-point rounds that are outlawed in normal warfare.

          From Forbes: 1.6 Billion Rounds Of Ammo For Homeland Security? It’s Time For A National Conversation

          …The Denver Post, on February 15th, ran an Associated Press article entitled Homeland Security aims to buy 1.6b rounds of ammo, so far to little notice. It confirmed that the Department of Homeland Security has issued an open purchase order for 1.6 billion rounds of ammunition. As reported elsewhere, some of this purchase order is for hollow-point rounds, forbidden by international law for use in war, along with a frightening amount specialized for snipers. Also reported elsewhere, at the height of the Iraq War the Army was expending less than 6 million rounds a month. Therefore 1.6 billion rounds would be enough to sustain a hot war for 20+ years. In America.

          Add to this perplexing outré purchase of ammo, DHS now is showing off its acquisition of heavily armored personnel carriers, repatriated from the Iraqi and Afghani theaters of operation…..

        • rah says:

          Actually DumDum bullets are not hollow points. The term and actual first DumDum rounds predated the development of the modern hollow point and got their name from the British Colonial Arsenal in DumDum India. That British Frontier arsenal came up with a semi-jacketed round for the .303 ammunition. The tip was not jacketed. So a DumDum is a round that has an unjacketed tip. You can make your own DumDum easily by simply turning a jacketed bullet backwards when you reload though ballistic performance will vary a great deal depending on the round you choose to do it with. But I know it works pretty well with the standard military 30.06 Springfield ball ammo. That’s what was used to shoot our Caprine patients at medlab as part of the SF medic training.

          The hollow point was developed from a different idea. Cutting crossed slots in the tips of unjacketed rounds was the first step.

  3. will says:

    But he did get it wrong: there is no intense or enhanced hurricane activity.

  4. Jimbo says:

    Hi Steve, below is my second installment following strange / odd / wild / weird weather from 1935. Below is 1936.

    World’s Weirdest Weather America’s Blizzard Of Mud
    WILD WEATHER In New Zealand
    Hailstones Kill 19 […as large as coconuts…]
    MORE WILD WEATHER Tornado’s Wreckage East and West
    VIOLENT WIND. Damage in Victoria [..Red rain fell…a waterspout was seen..]

    HEATWAVES – 1936
    DEATHS IN CANADA SIX HUNDRED IN ONTARIO […worst six days’ heat wave in the history…]
    Relief in Sight After 5,000 Perish….America Heat Wave…..
    Antarctic Expedition. Polar Heat Wave.
    Black Swan Dies In Sudden Heat Wave, But Polar Bears Survive
    OVER 90DEG. FOR FOUR DAYS Temperature Record For October [Brisbane]

    COLD WAVES – 1936
    UNITED STATES IN GRIP OF COLD WAVE Over 200 Deaths Blizzards, Snowstorms and Frost Widespread Suffering
    FROZEN CANADA 50 Degrees Below Zero Worst Cold in Memory

    DROUGHTS – 1936
    WORST DROUGHT IN HISTORY Millions Hit In America
    CALAMITOUS DROUGHT. Special Alberta Legislation
    Cattle Dying in Hundreds Transvaal’s Most Terrible Drought in Living Memory
    GRAIN POSITION IN ARGENTINA Drought Affects Many Crops

    FLOODS – 1936
    11 LIVES LOST. DISASTROUS FLOODS. £1,000,000 Damage in N.Z.
    FLOODS IN FRANCE Serious Damage Reported Towns Under Water
    HUGE DAM BURSTS IN JAPAN. Six Villages Swept Away […owing to heavy rain…]
    FLOODS IN RUMANIA. Coffins Swept Through Streets. BUCHAREST

    TORNADOES – 1936
    A QUEENSLAND TORNADO. Township Ravaged

    MANY DEAD Cyclone in New Zealand SHIPS BUFFETED Extensive Damage to Property
    Over 300 Killed in Cyclone [S. Korea]
    MOUNTAINOUS SEAS. Hurricane on German Coast
    FIJI HURRICANE. WORST IN HISTORY. 240 Deaths [..worst hurricane and floods ever..]
    HURRICANE AFTER FLOODS IN ENGLAND 13 Dead; Widespread Damage
    DISASTROUS HURRICANE. 300 Dead; 7,000 Homeless. Birmingham, Alabama
    GALES SWEEP EUROPE 30 Killed: Long Trail Of Wreckage

    Climatic Change Brought About by Dam. [W. USA]
    IS THE EARTH DRYING UP? World’s Deserts On The Earth

  5. geran says:

    More deeply revealing info that is unavailable anywhere else. (And the additional info from Gail is most appreciated also.)

    Can we say “superb”?

  6. Gail Combs says:

    I should add that Dr Gray is a true scientist. I can not think of higher praise.

  7. Louis Hooffstetter says:

    Dr. Gray, the preeminent meteorologist who nailed the 30 year climate forecast was excoriated by ‘The Weather Bimbo’ climastrologist Heidi Cullen who publically called for the AMS to yank his professional registration / certification because he told the truth:

    “We’re brainwashing our children,” said Dr Gray, a long-time professor at Colorado State University. “They’re going to the Gore movie [An Inconvenient Truth] and being fed all this. It’s ridiculous.”

    “We’ll look back on all of this in 10 or 15 years and realize how foolish it was,”

    “The human impact on the atmosphere is simply too small to have a major effect on global temperatures,”

    “It bothers me that my fellow scientists are not speaking out against something they know is wrong,” he said. “But they also know that they’d never get any grants if they spoke out. I don’t care about grants.”

    Thank you Dr. Gray.

  8. gregole says:

    Dr. Gray is the man.


    Thanks for pointing me his direction. I love this guy.

  9. It seems that Fort Collins is home to some notables on both sides of the climate debate. Besides “Himself” (Steve Goddard) we have Scott Denning and Ned Nikolov.

    I wonder if you folks ever get together at Starbucks or Dunkin’ Donuts?

  10. gator69 says:

    More proof that climate science is not about climate or science now. It is all politics now, and those who get it right, get left behind.

    • Gail Combs says:

      Actually they don’t just get left behind they get hung, drawn and quartered by the Climate N….s

      Anyone who speaks out, especially when their job depends on shutting up has more B…Ls than anyone in the District of Criminals!

      Again thank you Dr Gray.

      • aeroguy48 says:

        Scrolling thru the comments by Gail Combs, and her prolific quotes and links, I did have to laugh at one link~ savethemales, what struck me was your references to Royal Dutch Shell and their environmental activism. I am trying to connect this but RDS EXXON etc…are cutting spending in the US shales and I didn’t understand why. Shale oil and gas is a profitable business. Shell has been losing money thus they must cut back on spending. They are selling their profitable assets to keep from bleeding cash. Giving up so to speak because of their silly chase for ‘sustainability’ .

        • Ben says:

          Shell also blew it in the Arctic by believing the Arctic was ice-free enough to safely drill. They lost tens of millions.

        • Gail Combs says:

          Companies make bad business decisions all the time. Shell and BP and others made gobs of money via bird slicing wind turbines and solar panels.

          Al Gore and Maurice Strong perfected the ‘Model of the Scam’ using Molten Metal Technology Inc.

          On the first Earth Day Al Gore traveled to Fall River, Massachusetts, to deliver a green sermon at the headquarters of Molten Metal. Gore praised the Molten Metal firm as a pioneer in the kind of innovative technology that can save the environment, and make money for investors at the same. Molten Metal was based on a half assed lab bench technology that never went through the pilot plant stage to prove concept. But it did a great job of milking DOE tax payer moneys. When the tax payer money was about to dry up, Al Gore did his big song and dance for his buddies, the price of the stock soared and Maurice & co dumped the over priced stock on the rubes. DOE cut the funding and the company bankrupted. Lawsuits and Congressional investigations ensued.

          Now think of all the Activist students demanding schools and towns and states dump coal stock. (Google: California passes bill forcing biggest pension funds to divest from coal) The stock prices are plummeting and they are being quietly bought up at fire sale prices. The world is NOT going to stop burning coal with China and India building coal plants hand over fist. American coal will instead be shipped overseas. I figured this out a long time ago since it is a tried and true method of making money (Think the Great Depression) Seems the news has finally hit as to who is snapping up the assets.

          …It’s a good thing I finally went public last week with my long-held view that Democrat investors were going to snap up coal companies driven to bankruptcy by Obama’s war on coal.

          The day after I made my prediction, news came that leftist billionaire George Soros had purchased shares of the two largest U.S. coal companies, Peabody Energy and Arch Coal. Now comes news that bankrupt Patriot Coal is being purchased in a $400 million deal led by Tom Clarke, a prominent Virginia-based environmentalist.

          But Clarke’s purchase of Patriot brings a new — and likely fraudulent — twist to what I called “Obama’s Great Coal Train Robbery.”

          My original article forecast that the new kings of coal would have try to rehabilitate coal so they could profit from it with a straight face after having for years bashed the essential commodity as a people- and planet-murderer.

          So Clarke plans to do this — no kidding — by planting trees. Clarke will sell his coal at a 10 percent premium. And why would any cash-strapped utility pay 10 percent more for Clarke’s coal? The coal will come with a carbon credit certificate (also called a “carbon offset”) worth 30 percent of the coal’s emissions…..


          Then there is the sucking sound of landowners at the public moneys trough. In the USA there is the Warren Buffet — Antelope Valley forced land clearances mess and the Harry Reid — BLM — Bundy Ranch land grab fiasco.

          In the UK the land owners especially the Royal family are already raking in the dough.

          Landowners ‘£1 billion wind farm boom’: Scotland’s wealthiest private landowners are on course to earn around £1 billion in rental fees from wind farm companies

          Queen’s £38m a year offshore windfarm windfall – because she owns the seabed

          * Prince to profit from his support for green energy
          * Lucrative deal is a ‘masterstroke’ for Palace aide
          * Revenue already soaring by 44 per cent a year

          The Royal Family have secured a lucrative deal that will earn them tens of millions of pounds from the massive expansion of offshore windfarms…

          ALWAYS, ALWAYS, FOLLOW THE MONEY (and the power plays.)

  11. Morgan says:

    Vincent Gray and Bill Gray.

    A couple of gray haired gentlemen who know what they’re talking about.

  12. Joseph Bastardi says:

    He was right before this!!! He was talking about the coming enhancement of tropical activity back in the 1970s, saying all this ice age stuff was nonsense. This man is one of my heroes, always has been. Every chance I get, I refer to him publicly and also refer people to his great paper on this matter, which everyone should read, skeptic or not!

    Click to access gray2012.pdf

    He is in a class by himself!

  13. Lawrence13 says:

    He wasn’t right about the hurricanes though, was he?

    • Ben says:

      His forecast was in 1996. Through 2005 he was accurate.

      Since then, his yearly predictions have consistently overstated the hurricane threat.

      Ryan Maue has been more accurate

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